Flat Racing - Wednesday 16th July

[robertob]

16.00 Catterick: Lady Frances @ 11/1 Bet365 Undoubtedly this 3yo filly has better form on the All-Weather during her career so far. She did well on her latest start over 7f at Lingfield when she finished 3rd eight days ago. She travelled nicely from the front, setting a good pace and looked in with a big shout turning for home. She got tired in the closing stages though. This suggests, as everything that she has shown so far, that 7f is stretching her stamina. Her three career wins came over 5f and 6f. So the drop in trip is in favour today. What about her poor turf showing? I would imagine that she just didn't have found right conditions yet. She was either too high in the mark, ran over a trip too far, or might found combinations of it all with ground not right. However she showed that she is quite a capable filly when she finished runner-up over 7f at Doncaster on quick ground in a conditions race last year, and earlier this season she finished a creditable 3rd at Doncaster again over 7f, this time on soft ground, off a mark of 89. She drops now to a new career lowest turf mark today, with quick ground most likely to suit and the trip exactly what she wants. Track is an unknown but as she likes to be in front or at least prominent, she should be actually favoured by the way Catterick races often pan out. I feel she is a big runner with Joe Fanning on board and while there are some other capable sorts in the line-up, Lady Frances has a nice 3yo weight allowance, which combined with the factors mark, ground and trip makes her a stand out bet for 11/1 in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 16th July 20.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f: The clear favourite Rapid Advance makes plenty of appeal on paper, following his good win on Handiap debut at Goodwood. Only 2lb higher and up in trip, he is an obvious chance. On pedigree there is a very fair chance that he gets the trip, however I worry about the speed on the dam side, which makes we worry and not confident enough to have Rapid Advance as a rather short priced favourite. Behind him there is not much substance in the betting, some minor lto winners, but overall all less than exciting. I feel this opens the door for a long-shot. And for that reason I do like to give Cobham's Circus a chance here on his Handicap debut of a potentially low mark. He is only 67 rated, didn't show much in three maidens before to even warrant such a rating, but the dramatic step up in trip from 7f to 10f should resonate in dramatic improvement. He is all stamina on his sire side, and while his dam never won over further than 6f, there is plenty of stamina further down the line, as on the dam's sire side in particular. In fact it might well turned out to be that Cobham's Circus might even need further in time. For now, 10f looks well worth a try, in fact should see him in much better light than what his performances suggested in maiden company. ---Cobham's Circus @ 16/1 Betfred - 0.5pts e/w