Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Colombia v Ivory Coast (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.03 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[kevshat]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th 4pts Both teams to score 17/20 BetVictor When they were playing to their full power in their first matches both these sides showed they have goals in them and I think we will see that in this match. A place in the second round is there for the winners of this one and the incentive of almost being secured that place with a match to spare will spur both sides on. Both looked fragile defensively at times in their first match so both sides to score looks a good thing to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/colombia-vs-ivory-coast-betting-both-sides-can-find-the-net-in-brasilia

[nioreh]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Yellow Cards Over 3.5, 1.787 @ MarathonBet Mr Howard Webb takes care of this game. He has an average of just over 4 over 111 international games, and in the last wc he averaged over 7 cards a game, including the final where he showed 14. In his three group stage games he averaged 5.67. Both teams at 3 points there is much at stake, and both teams play rather physical. I just don't see this bet losing so the price is too good.

[JoeyB]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Firstly hey all, new member here... (About to turn off PC and only have WH tab left up so these are from them, could be better available but...) Anyhow I'm thinking of 2.5+ goals @ 23/20 Then also as nioreh says, I was thinking of cards with Webb. I was considering 4-6 @ 19/20 Also may have a punt on card within the first 15mins @ 3/1.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (Unibet) for a 0.6 stake Over 2.5 and Colombia to win @ 3.50 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake Both teams won their first match, and have shown great attacking power and enough weapons to qualify to the 1/8s. Ivory Coast did really well in the 2nd half against Japan, using Drogba as a super-sub to turn the match around against a unconvincing Japan. Although their we're sub par defensively, Japan couldn't do that much on the attack, so that really didn't test the Ivory Coast defense. Colombia will be a big test, though. Colombia were always on the right foot against a very creativity lacking Greece, were very efficient on the attack against a well organized defence, and did surprise me in the way they were so balanced and mature during all moments in the match. Not for a moment Greece were able to get back into the match. Can't see this one not ending up as high-scoring. Both teams will want to score and to win, and I expect both attacks to cause some damage in each opponents defence. However, from what I saw from Ivory Coast against Japan, there is no way they won't concede at least once or twice, and I do feel that Colombia's team processes are much more balanced, especially in defense, and that might just do the difference here. I like the odds for Over 2.5, but even better for Over 2.5 and Colombia to win.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Yes agree with overs. Even though Colombia accounted for Greece 3-0, the Greeks had many raids and even hit the crossbar. Was a miracle the Greeks didn't score. The Ivory Coast are perfect for this sort of bet because they'll score for you while also concede to get the total up. They are much better in attack than defence in my opinion. Zokora was an average defensive midfielder years ago and now plays in the heart of his nation's defence and Kolo is past it. Tells me they struggle for defensive depth of quality. Whereas Bony, Drogba, Kalou Gervinho and Yaya are a goal parade. I can't see the likes of Bamba, Zokora, Boka keeping out James Rodriguez, Cuadrado, Zuniga, Jackson Martinez and a said to be returning Freddy Guarin. Have taken Over 2 @ 1.60 with Pinnacle high stakes. :ok

[Left4Dead]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th I like the Ivory Coast to win this match. I say thia based on WC experience more than anything.The coast has been in the past two whereas Colombia has missed the last three. Ivory coast has also maintained a core of good international players that have seen time together. Will try to find the best price +0.5 goals and maybe play small on the three way line also.

[slizorn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th 8pts Both teams to score @ 1.87 Unibet Both teams have scored in the last 8 games in a row for Ivory Coast. Out of those, 6 games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 8 games for Colombia. Out of those, 5 games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Based on the stats mentioned above, I feel like the both teams to score bet has a much higher chance to land than the over 2.5 goals bet this time around.

[JoeyB]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Think I'll put in a few different bets here, cover myself and hope for the ideal scenario. I'm tempted on Colombia to score both halves @ 3.25 (could be better out there). Maybe even Ivory Coast both halves @ 4.75...

[slizorn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

Think I'll put in a few different bets here' date=' cover myself and hope for the ideal scenario. I'm tempted on Colombia to score both halves @ 3.25 (could be better out there). Maybe even Ivory Coast both halves @ 4.75...[/quote'] Welcome to the forum! Could you please add a line or two of reasoning as to why you think your bets will come in and the bookmaker you are taking them with? Thanks!

[Yuri]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th My biggest concern of every upcoming match. After 20 played matches only 25% matches ended under 2.5 (2x 0-0, 1x 1-0, 1x 2-0, 1x 1-1). In last 7 World Cups the lowest % of under matches were 43.8% in France and only in USA (1994) have seen more overs then unders. I compared that with Leagues averages: 61% in Bundesliga and 64% overs in Eredivisie. Majority is in 47-53% overs. So what to expect? The trend would continue and we will witness of something extra or in next 44 matches will averages will arrange in normal distribution? If next 44 matches ended equal with overs and unders we will have 42% overs - still the highest for last 8 world cups. So I am in doubts: listen your opinions for overs and BTS or use statistic indicators? Well I will take both. I do not believe in 0-0 (we already have seen two 0-0 matches in short period). And after three matches with quick goal (20', 20', 11') I think there would not another quick goal. Personal I will take scenario of goals after 30'. What to bet? 0-0 at 30' at some bookies, waiting to 30' and then betting over 1.5 or BTS or laying the draw. I do not dediced yet - I will in last minutes. But on other hand I hope these lines will help someone to make better decision.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th A bit off-topic here, but I would say that Unders will be far more likely from 1/8s and onwards, as each match from there will be decisive for every nation competing. Don't forget that the criteria to tie-break two points with equal points in the goal difference. We will surely see teams searching for goals if needed, and surely those teams with chances to qualify in the last matchday will fight for it until the last minute. I would say that in the group phase, Overs will still be likely, and I expect it to happen again here.

[Yuri]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th If I am allowed to continue unders point (if there is any other topis more proper for this type discusions, please let me know) @JuMeSyn It is quite logical thinking. But let's look the real stats from 1986: World Cup, Group Stage, Final Stage (only regular time), Overall 1986, 2.33, 2.69, 2,44 1990, 2.28, 1.75, 2.12 1994, 2.58, 2.81, 2.65 1998, 2.63, 2.75, 2.66 2002, 2.71, 1.75, 2.47 2006, 2.44, 1.69, 2.25 2010, 2.10, 2.63, 2.23 AVG, 2.44, 2.29, 2.40 It is not so obvious that in group stage is generally more goals and more overs. We also see the highest mark is 2.71. So current avg 3.00 is still high.

[Left4Dead]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Hi Yuri, what do you think might be the cause of the difference in scoring. It has crossed my mind that maybe it has someting to do with the elevation of the country; maybe also the matchups. I believe that if there are many matchups between teams from the same region then maybe they tend to play closer/lower scoring games and more open vs opponents from different regions. I have played quite a few overs in this world cup but it was simply because I remember losing a lot betting overs last WC and notices that the book makers were favoring unders in this one more than they should. I played many over 1.5 1st halves last WC with big + money and noticed a lot of 1s and 0.75s and so on in this one. I have no data to back up my thoughts but I believe them to be fair..

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

If I am allowed to continue unders point (if there is any other topis more proper for this type discusions, please let me know) @JuMeSyn It is quite logical thinking. But let's look the real stats from 1986: World Cup, Group Stage, Final Stage (only regular time), Overall 1986, 2.33, 2.69, 2,44 1990, 2.28, 1.75, 2.12 1994, 2.58, 2.81, 2.65 1998, 2.63, 2.75, 2.66 2002, 2.71, 1.75, 2.47 2006, 2.44, 1.69, 2.25 2010, 2.10, 2.63, 2.23 AVG, 2.44, 2.29, 2.40 It is not so obvious that in group stage is generally more goals and more overs. We also see the highest mark is 2.71. So current avg 3.00 is still high.

Interesting fact, thanks. Yes, it is usually hard to know when we are going to have overs, although it is easy to assess that when we have a group phase with overs, we will probably have a final stage with under, or inverse. Except 1998 WC, it surely looks like it. But well, since a while from now on I've start to look much less to stats, and how do teams play and behave. Stats are great, don't get me wrong, but I just can't look to any single match with Ivory Coast and not saying "Overs". Terrific individual quality in attack, clumsy defense filled with adaptations (Zokora), offensive full-backs and an average keeper, against a very balanced Colombia team? Maybe I'm all wrong here, but before KO, it just makes sense! Other thing: what were the tie-break rules for the others WC? I do believe they were head-to-head first, which would only mean that 2 wins = direct qualification, unless something as a 0-5 happened or a team with 0 points and others with 6 in a group. On this one, we have the GD as the major tie-breaker, which motivates team to go on and search for another goal, which is great and really boosts the show. There are also another factors, for example in 1986, 1990 and 1994, we had wins valuing 2 points I think (not sure it was like that in 1994 though), and there were 24 teams, with some best 3-placed teams moving on to the 1/8s. All of this should be factored.

[doink]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Based on the opening round matches I do fancy Columbia quite strongly here. Ivory Coast are a team that always look better on paper but have never gelled as a unit. Going into the tournament they had won 2 in 7, mostly against modest competition. I wasn't overly impressed with the performance again Japan, who started the game well and then lost all intensity. Both goals would have been dealt with by a half decent defence. Columbia are flying under the radar a little even though they were a lot of peoples dark horses before the Falco injury. They gave Greece their biggest loss since 2006, without looking like they were out of 3rd gear. Cuadrado & James Rodriguez are going to cause all sorts of problems I feel, they are both in very fine form. Columbia Win 2.1 @ Betfair

[Yuri]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Left4Dead: we can take a long night discussion about that with many opinions. And in truth majority of them would have a clue. I trust long term statistics and averages with shot term deviations. I regularly compare last n (usual last 6) averages with season averages and with overall averages and look for deviations. We saw Brazil-Mexico - match which mustn't have ended with 0-0 but it did. On other side we saw goals from Algerie with stupid penalty, goals from Cahill with perfect volley and so on... But on long term everything has to balance. If you maybe remember start of last season of Premier League (2013/14). I don't know exactly but I think after 3 rounds average scored golas was below 2 and 75% of matches was under. After that there was over averagely season. It long discussion... And also a lot of matches to be played so it would be opportunity to discuss.. Thank for reply!

[Left4Dead]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th Congrats to all the Colombia backers; I lost on Ivory Coast but that was a good game to watch.

[Yuri]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

But well' date=' since a while from now on I've start to look much less to stats, and how do teams play and behave. Stats are great, don't get me wrong, but I just can't look to any single match with Ivory Coast and not saying "Overs".[/quote'] You are 100% right. With just looking on stats you can just determine statistic probability of some outcome based on past occasions for single match. "Stats betting" or "stats trading" work only with combination with proper money/stake management and carefully projected strategy. It's hard but it could work. For example, in forex trading some math experts have done robots which trade without human only based on statistic and patterns. And something similar could have been done here. You need large database with proper parameters, software and knowledge about math and statistics. And again - if you analyse single match, it's almost impossible to win only just statistics. But over years, it could be possible. Si my intention is to caution about deviation, not to convince you. If you think I am interesting I will continue, if I become spam then I stop writing. No hard feelings. You have a point! So it's important how long in past you go for analysing matches. In regular leagues I go aprox. 10 years back. Since World Cups occur every 4 years I look last 7 World Cups? Why? Just personal feeling.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

You are 100% right. With just looking on stats you can just determine statistic probability of some outcome based on past occasions for single match. "Stats betting" or "stats trading" work only with combination with proper money/stake management and carefully projected strategy. It's hard but it could work. For example, in forex trading some math experts have done robots which trade without human only based on statistic and patterns. And something similar could have been done here. You need large database with proper parameters, software and knowledge about math and statistics. And again - if you analyse single match, it's almost impossible to win only just statistics. But over years, it could be possible. Si my intention is to caution about deviation, not to convince you. If you think I am interesting I will continue, if I become spam then I stop writing. No hard feelings. You have a point! So it's important how long in past you go for analysing matches. In regular leagues I go aprox. 10 years back. Since World Cups occur every 4 years I look last 7 World Cups? Why? Just personal feeling.

Wasn't saying that not knowing the past should be avoided. No, it is very important! It by looking at the past that we do know what to do in the future, but I prefer to use at a decision support and not as a decision maker. And yes, I've read about stuff about "large database with proper parameters, software and knowledge about math and statistics." Yes, indeed it is possible. Read some 2/3 books about and when I have the time I might employ some strategies I have read there. And yes, I think you are interesting so just PM so we can keep on talking. Oh, and if you are brazilian (avatar?), you can speak in Portuguese on PM :)

[slizorn]

Re: Group C - Colombia v Ivory Coast > Thursday June 19th

8pts Both teams to score @ 1.87 Unibet Both teams have scored in the last 8 games in a row for Ivory Coast. Out of those, 6 games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 8 games for Colombia. Out of those, 5 games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Based on the stats mentioned above, I feel like the both teams to score bet has a much higher chance to land than the over 2.5 goals bet this time around.

+6.96pts Ivory coast cannot stop leaking and scoring goals. Depending on how Greece play tonight, I might take this bet on again.