Flat Racing > Wednesday June 4th

[Aidymac]

Southwell 5:30 The Scott Dixon trained Pearl Noir is overpriced here for me. His last run on the All-Weather was at Wolverhampton in April in a much better race than this one tomorrow and he finished a close 2nd behind Lujeanie. He is only 3 pounds higher in the weights tomorrow but this will be a drop in grade from Class 5 down to Class 6. Matthew Hopkins takes off a very valuable 7 pounds which could make all the difference. He is a course and distance winner and is still only a 4 year old so there is the potential of a bit more improvement to come. Pearl Noir WIN @ 17/2 Bet Victor

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing > Wednesday June 4th 2.30 Southwell A reasonable handicap with several interesting runners on the fibresand. Blazeofenchantment appeared to handle the surface well enough on penultimate start when 4^th to Loud over CD, nothing more than fair at Wolves last time out. Yet to win off a mark this high and that 4^th around here the form hasn’t worked out at all and looks weak. Victorian Number is another that is potentially unexposed on this surface. Not beaten far off this mark twice in January. Effort at Kempton last time out was a lesser effort but may have needed the run, should strip fitter this time round. Yet to win off a mark this high but could have more to offer here. Putin is a course regular and was last seen winning over 6f around here in January. Up 4lb for that effort but still on a workable mark, unlikely to get a soft lead here though. At a price it might be worth risking Tony Hollis. He didn’t go on like most do for this yard when they initially got him. A few respectable efforts at Wolves, yard clearly thing he is ready to do himself justice after a short break with the fitting of the first time visor. He has run a couple of stinkers here but has also run some promising runs here too, yard have a good record here and is on last winning mark. Stall 10 not necessarily a bad thing around here if he breaks well enough. Only slight concern is yard has gone a bit quiet recently. 2pt win Tony Hollis 13/2 bet365 5.30 Southwell Pretty weak affair to finish the card on and don’t think it will take much winning at all. The fact Pearl Noir carries top weight really says it all 1 win from 28 in a CD maiden, clearly acts on surface as most best efforts have been here although they have come off 4-5lb lower marks so has work cut out off this sort of mark to be winning. Amenable went a bit closer last time out at Hamilton on a higher turf mark. Hasn’t won on this surface since 2010 and had opportunities clearly a risky proposition to back up latest effort back on this surface. Confidential Creek has just the 1 win to his name and that was over this CD around this time last year off a 2lb higher mark. Didn’t show much on last 2 starts and needs a huge bounce back. Doctor Hilary has looked by the handicapper on his last 2 efforts after winning over this CD. Flow Chart has a pretty poor strike rate but usually runs his race here, dropped to 5lb below last winning mark but losing run stacking up. Booking of Fanning eye catching though. Coach Montana is unlikely to get such a soft lead on this surface as he got at Wolves last time out and needs to prove himself on this surface 1 run here was respectable. In a very weak affair it might be worth taking a risk on Upper Lambourn. His losing run stretches back now to March last year and largely in the doldrums since but latest effort was somewhat better showing a bit more staying on for 3^rd. Step up in trip will suit and on a dangerous mark now 7lb below last winning mark and all 4 wins around here including 2 at this trip. 1pt e/w Upper Lambourn 10/1 bet365 6.30 Kempton Good mix of front and prominent runners with hold up sorts which is likely to suit the hold up sorts more. Silver Dixie never got involved over shorter around here on first run of the season. Will appreciate this return to further but will need to improve on that effort to be winning a race as strong as this. Xinbama won last time out, up 6lb for that win and this now requires a career best effort. Dandy was behind Xinbama in 2^nd by 1 length, was a no show on turf at Newmarket next run and has to bounce back now. Rouge Nuage was a good 2^nd over a mile around here, is yet to totally convince over this trip and the bounce factor is a worry here after a lengthy layoff. Little Buxted is the most interesting for me at the prices. Lightly raced with a progressive profile on the AW. He went well fresh last year. Really solid effort when last seen at Kempton in November when looking very unlucky in the run. Will appreciate a strong run race and only up a 1lb for latest win looks very lenient. 2pt win Buxted 7/1 VC