Flat Racing > Sunday June 1st

[Aidymac]

Nottingham 2:45 Dubara Reef is the only course winner in this field and that course form could be a big advantage. The 7 year old gelding won here off a mark of 55 back in 2010, and in fact won the race by 7 lengths. He finished second over course and distance here in 2011 off a mark of 70 and runs off a mark of 51 tomorrow. Although he is not as good now as he was then, he is still 19 pounds lower in the weights when you compare the last time he ran here so if he is fit tomorrow he could take a lot of beating. He stays well, enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and he ran a good race over two miles at Catterick last time out when 4th. He won at Redcar in April and 15/2 is too big for me. Dubara Reef WIN @ 15/2 Bet365

[calculus]

Re: Flat Racing > Sunday June 1st 2:45 Nottingham - Keep Calm (16/1 William Hill) 1pt Win There looks to be a lot of deadwood in here and the fact that they are betting 15/2 the field for a 12 runner race is a fair representation of how hard it is to really fancy any of these. I feel it could pay to focus on the younger horses with at least a modicum of potential to improve beyond the level of ability they have shown to date. On that basis I think the Mackie trained Keep Calm can be given a chance, he was able to win a couple of lowly nurseries when trained by Richard Hannon but did not really go on from that at as a 3 year old and was duly jettisoned. He has yet to really fire in three starts for his new yard nut has dropped a bit further in the handicap as a result. Hard to know whether the step up in trip will suit or not but it is certainly worth a shot for a horse that is as patently as one paced as he is. His one win on turf came on heavy ground and he will likely face comparable ground conditions tomorrow. This looks like a really grim contest and with the Mackie yard hitting form in the last few days and Fallon booked I think he is well worth a small speculative investment. 3:15 Nottingham - Misstemper (11/2 Paddy Power) 1.75pts Win In contrast to the race that precedes this on the card, this looks like a decent contest for the grade and at least a couple of these will potentially progress beyond this grade later in the season. Misstemper looks to be one of those horses with potential, as she has shown a decent level of form in three maidens to date and I think she looks potentially very nicely treated off an opening mark of 64. On her second start she finished half a length ahead of Space Walker, that one has subsequently gone down by a short head off a mark of 67 and then won off a mark of 70, with both of those runs coming in a class higher than tomorrows race. The form of her most recent race in which she finished 3^rd also reads pretty well, as the winner Penny Drops went very close in a hot race at Goodwood off a mark of 87 and the second, Backstage Gossip has come out a won a maiden at Salisbury with consummate ease. The 3lbs taken off by Oisin Murphy makes her look very nicely weighted indeed and if proving as good on the turf as the AW and handling soft ground then she should be up to running a very big race here and she should probably be at least a point shorter in the betting. 5:15 Nottingham - Kalahari (13/2 Paddy Power) 2pts Win Hard to get a grasp on the form of Kalahari when trained in Germany but he has joined a shrewd yard who do very well with their limited flat runners. The Wadham yard are also bang in form with three winners and one second from their last five runners (all of which were on the flat). The half-sister of my selection was placed in a group race as a 2 year old and rated in treble figures at one stage, so this one would only need to have a fraction of her ability to be going close in a class 6 handicap off a mark of 59. Soft ground is a bit of an unfathomable but being out of a Zamindar mare and by Halling there is no clear indication that he will not handle some cut on breeding. He has not raced in over a year but I am not particularly concerned about the absence as the yard are well able to get one ready after a break. In a field of mediocre and exposed performers I think he makes a good bit of appeal and would not need to be anything out of the ordinary to take this.