UK Jump Racing 30th May Stratford

[Darran]

So we finally get to the end of the hunter chase season but what a night in prospect at Stratford to end the season with 4 quality hunter chases to look forward to. 5.50 Bay To Go – Ran his best race of the season at Southwell last time when finishing 4^th Popaway. Form got a boost on Wednesday when the 5^th home Dica won at Cartmel. Should go well, but I am still not sure he is in the same form as last season. Utopian – Has showed a real turn of foot when winning hunter chases at Fakenham and Fontwell and it is pretty rare to see a hunter chaser show the turn of foot he does at the end of his races. I was worried about his jumping at Fontwell because he jumped novicey at Fakenham, but the bigger field and the faster pace actually meant he jumped better. He handles soft ground as he won a maiden hurdle on soft at Ludlow last February and I think he will be very hard to beat. Worth adding as well that he was sent off odds on favourite to beat More Of That at Folkestone 18 months ago. Himalayan Express – Barely went a yard at Fontwell behind Utopian last time and would struggle to reverse that form even if he does travel better. Overlut – Won this race in 2009, 2012 and 2013 and no doubt this has been the target for him again this season. He didn’t reappear until the beginning of the month when he won a match at Maisemore. He then ran a solid race when finishing 2^nd to Latest Trend at Cothelstone. He won on soft and heavy in his younger days but his best form has been on better ground. No doubt he will run his race again and does get weight from Utopian, but it is hard to see him beating him. Piment D’Estruval – Only completed once in four point starts this season and he just doesn’t stay 3m. He won a handicap chase over 2m1f at Newton Abbot last July off a mark of 115 so that would give him a chance here. The problem is he thrives on quick ground which he certainly isn’t going to get here. Tiermore – Was so consistent last season and finally managed to win a hunter chase at Newton Abbot. He just hasn’t been in the same form this time around however and his three hunter chase runs have been poor. He has at least shown better form in two point starts this month and ran well on Saturday at Hereford when coming 3^rd. Chance if back to his best. Archie Boy – His last two hunter chase runs have shown an improvement in form. He ran well here in April behind Paint The Clouds until his stamina gave weigh and it was a similar story at Worcester last week behind Lake Legend and Shoreacres. He travelled well until his stamina gave weigh and he finished 3^rd. This trip is ideal for him, but it is quite a hot race so I can’t see him being good enough to win, but I certainly think he will outrun his odds and could be worth backing in the betting without market. Byerley Bear – Has had quite an amazing season having won 7 out of 9 points and is unlucky not to be unbeaten as he lost both front shoes on one start and looked to dead-heat on the other, but was placed 2^nd. He has plenty of speed as his win over 2m at Cork in April 2012 showed and he will love underfoot conditions. Including jockey claims he will be getting over a stone from Utopian. Delta Borget – Thought he was going to finally get his head in front at Newton Abbot last week, but as always something had more speed than him at the finish. Very one-paced and might even struggle to repeat his 3^rd in this race last year as I think it is a stronger renewal. Joker Choker – Showed a decent level of form for Nicky Henderson and was a good 4^th at Market Rasen off a mark of 123 just over a year ago. He returned in a point in March where he was never put in the race and pulled up. His only other run was at Cothelstone where he was 3^rd 4L behind Overlut. This trip will certainly suit better than 3m, but all his best form is on better ground and thus the soft conditions are the worry for him. Oldrik – Will appreciate this shorter trip compared to points, but his two 2nds the last twice don’t add up too much and he wasn’t in good form when last seen under Rules. Posh Trip – Doesn’t stay 3m in points so this trip will suit, but still hard to see him being good enough. Rash Move – Been a grand old servant for connections and was unlucky not to land a hunter chase last season including when finishing a close 3^rd in the Aintree Fox Hunters’. Wasn’t seen for nearly a year and won a match at Mollington earlier this month. He then ran on Monday at Chaddesley Corbett and won well. If he is capable of going again 4 days later he should run well, but I can’t help thinking younger legs will beat him. Smugglers’ Run – Pulled up behind Rash Move on Monday and unlikely to get involved. Empyrean – A former Sir Mark Prescott inmate and still a maiden after 6 flat runs and 8 point starts. An unlikely winner. Summary – This is probably the best ever renewal of this race and although Overlut is respected in his bid to win this for a 4^th time I think he is going to struggle to beat Utopian and Byerley Bear. I was really impressed with Utopian at Fontwell and I think he will be very hard to beat even though he has to give over a stone away to Byerley Bear. That horse has to be backed as well though as he is certainly a big danger. Rash Move is capable of going well, but keep an eye on Archie Boy in the without markets as he is worth backing e/w if a big price. Tip Utopian Alternative Byerley Bear 6.50 Cottage Oak – His trainer won’t hear of defeat for Cottage Oak this evening and he believes he would have won at Cheltenham last month but for being brought down 3 out. In his last start he beat Palypso de Creek by 2 and a half lengths at Chaddesley Corbett which was obviously a good effort, but it was in a 3 runner race (essentially a match) on good ground over a track which is not exactly a stamina test. He had a great season last year and certainly stays better than he used to, but these conditions will suit Palypso de Creek much better and I expect the form to be reversed. Palypso de Creek – The other thing this horse has in his favour over Cottage Oak is that he gets 2lbs from him if you include jockey’s claims. Won two hunter chases in February and given what Foundry Square and Doctor Kingsley have done since they are both strong pieces of form. He then won a couple of points including beating Saveiro by 30L at Brafield-On-The-Green. The underfoot conditions will suit him well and he is a strong stayer. Has a big chance. Sacred Mountain – Bit disappointing when getting beaten at Aspatria earlier this month, but put in a good effort to win a hunter chase at Sedgefield last month. That form below a few of these though. The General Lee – Won a couple of points this season, but well beaten in his two hunter chase starts and needs to find a fair bit with the best of these. Universal Soldier – The one they all have to beat. Was rated 138 when running under Rules and has plenty of ability although has been hard to train. He was only beaten 13L when 7^th behind Teaforfree in the National Hunt Chase two years ago and was a good 2^nd at Haydock off 137 in November the same year. He then took no interest in the Welsh National and the Classic Chase at Warwick. He wasn’t seen until June where he had clearly been sweetened up as he won a Mixed Open at Garthorpe easily in a very quick time. His only point start this season came at Bitterley when 2^nd to Invisible Man and that was a fair effort. His Cheltenham win last time in the 4 miler was a fantastic effort and beat what has probably been the best British trained hunter chase horse this season Pearlysteps. Ground will suit and he shouldn’t be inconvenienced at all by this drop down in trip. As an extra positive he even gets weight from his main rivals. Well Mett – Couldn’t have won any easier when winning at Perth last month, but it didn’t tell us too much as he beat little. Was behind Moscow Blaze at Hackwood in March on his pointing debut, but this longer trip will suit him better than that test. He handled soft ground well at Perth, but his best form is on better and it might catch him out in this stronger race. Capable of a big showing though. How’s My Friend – It still pains me slightly that I didn’t collect at Wincanton when I tipped him up at 16/1 and he should have won, but then you know what you are going to get with the jockey Amanda Bush. Even with a capable jockey on he would get outclassed in this company though. Lauberhorn – Managed to win a seller at Worcester last July but has thrived since going pointing winning five out of seven in Wales beating The General Lee and Chesnut Annie along the way. Interesting they have booked Gina Andrews for the ride, but there has to be a big worry about staying this far in soft ground. Could be up there though if he does stay. Moscow Blaze – Another who has had a great season and I have seen him blaze a trail to win at Cottenham and Cocklebarrow this season. I also saw him on his last start at Kimble when he disappointed to finish a well beaten 3^rd behind Start Royal. Connections have been sensible to give him a break since as he looked in need of it that day and he can go well for a fair way, but I am not sure he is quite up to winning this. Saveiro – Has won five from six this season, but they haven’t been overly strong races and as pointed out above the one time he did lose he was way behind Palypso de Creek which suggests he has a bit to find here. Chesnut Annie – Has won 36 points and 2 hunter chases over the years, but was stuffed by Theatre Queen at Cheltenham last time and hard to see her winning what is a hot little race. Summary – No doubt the sponsors AGA are delighted to attract such a high quality field for their final and there are a few here that if they won it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise. That said they all have to find something to beat Universal Soldier after his impressive win at Cheltenham a month ago. Palypso de Creek is the biggest danger and worth a saver. Tip – Universal Solider NAP Alternative – Palypso de Creek 7.20 Bradley Brook – Didn’t start the season too well, but continued the progression he showed last season by winning two points and a hunter chase at Exeter last time. His jumping wasn’t always the best, but he was so impressive in beating Sobre Tresor, who franked the form when winning at Fontwell a couple of weeks ago and the winning margin could have been much more. They also pulled well clear of the rest so I really like the form. This is certainly a step-up in class, but he stays well and handles cut in the ground so has a solid chance. Following Dreams – Had a fantastic season winning three on the bounce. I saw him win the first of those at Barbury in February and he got a great ride by Will Biddick to beat Dante’s Storm so the form is solid. He easily won his next two points and then ran in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett, but he pulled up as if all was not quite right with him. This softer surface will suit better and he looks a stayer, the only doubt he has is his jumping as he made a few mistakes before unseating at Cheltenham last year. Gale Force Oscar – Beaten 3/4L on his British debut by Chosen Milan, although it was a cosy win. Then was outclassed in the Foxhunters, but was super impressive at Chepstow last month when bolting up by 20L in soft ground. It wasn’t the strongest of races (the 3^rd has won a handicap off 77 since) but he couldn’t have done it much easier. Hamledown Tor – Some very good paced hunter chase form including when 2^nd to Harbour Court in this race last year. He also ran a stormer to finish a close 3^rd to Doctor Kingsley and Current Exchange (runs in the feature) at Cheltenham last month. He stayed well last year and this softer ground might just help him. He is also wearing blinkers for the first time which is interesting. You certainly couldn’t rule him out of at least hitting the frame again. John Daniell – We get to Miss Bush again and his pointing form suggests he has the ability to run a big race in this. He should have won at Fontwell but not surprisingly was given a shocking ride. The extra trip will help, but Amanda can’t even claim in this race so will be a surprise winner as even if the horse was good enough you would fancy her to be outridden. Sharp Suit – Was nothing special under Rules but thrived since going pointing and won 4 on the bounce before just landing the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last month. He is bidding to emulate what his stable-mate did and follow up in this, but it wasn’t a strong renewal of that race. Has claims though. Shy John – A tricky ride but Pete Mason has done well on him this season and landed a couple of hunter chases at Wincanton and Leicester. He wasn’t disgraced in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham and I think he was still feeling the effects of that race when disappointing at Wincanton next up. Had a break since then so should be back to his best here. Chosen Milan – Had a fantastic season and put in a personal best effort when beating Foundry Square at Cheltenham last month. Was 5L behind Alskamatic the time before though and Sharp Suit beat that one on the same night. Was 6^th in this race last year when she didn’t stay and that might well happen again tonight. Fruit Fayre – A horse I like a lot since I saw her win a point impressively at Didmarton last season. She is unbeaten in her last eight completed points and it was good to see her win a hunter chase at Kelso comfortably. She made slightly harder work than I thought she would but still ran out a 12L. This is a step-up in grade and the best race she has ever run in, but she could be up to the task. Theatre Queen – Had put in some really impressive performances in points, the highlight was when romping to a Coronation Cup success at Larkhill this season. She showed what she could do at Cheltenham when hammering her rivals by 33L. Now Spotthestripe was level with her when coming down at 4 out, but I think she was coming to the end of her tether. Interestingly Chosen Milan and Theatre Queen both clocked the same time when wining on the card, but Chosen Milan was carrying 8lbs less. Sharp Suit was just over a second slower but carried 4lbs more than Theatre Queen. He has to give her more weight than that tonight though. There is no doubt this is her stiffest task yet tonight and her jumping wasn’t foot perfect at Cheltenham (she made a worse mistake than Spotthestripe did at 4 out), but could potentially be the best of these. Summary – This race maybe down on numbers, but the quality is high and it is probably one of the best renewals of the John Corbet Cup. As you can tell there isn’t really any of the horses you can rule out completely. Theatre Queen will more than likely win if she gets round OK and I connections will be confident of success, but there are enough doubts about her that there could be some value in having a couple of each-way bets against her as well as having a small win bet on her. I have always liked Fruit Fayre, but she might not have the strongest stamina here. Hameldown Tor was 2^nd in this last year, ran well behind two good horses last time and he can hit the frame again. I think Bradley Brook’s win at Exeter could well be under estimated by the market and I think he has solid place claims. Tips Hamledown Tor and Bradley Brook e/w Alternative Theatre Queen 8.25 Bermuda Boy – Been consistent as usual this season, but 19L behind Paint The Clouds here in April and doubt he wants to go this far either. Certain Flight – Was my pick in the Foxhunter and he ran well until not quite seeing out the trip. Although a further distance horses seem to be able to get 3m4f better round here and I don’t expect it be as much of a test given the smaller field. He didn’t beat much at Huntingdon but he was impressive and his point form is rock solid. I would ignore his Newton Abbot run behind Chosen Milan as he wasn’t over his Cheltenham run and he has proved in two point wins since that he is back to his best. Was around 10L in front of Current Exchange at Chipley Park on both their seasonal debuts. Current Exchange – Had his best season yet having won two hunter chases, including the Mallard at Leicester, and a point. Ran a game race in defeat at Cheltenham to the course specialist Doctor Kingsley and as this isn’t a top class renewal he should go well. Foundry Square – Landed the first hunter chase of the season at Newbury and it would be some feat if he can land the last tonight. Has added two more wins to that at Ludlow and Fontwell, but none of those wins strike me as good enough to win this and he was pulled up in the Foxhunter. There also has to be a concern about him wanting a trip this far. Paint The Clouds – Clearly been very hard to train, but proved he had plenty of class when landing a five timer over fences and hurdles in 2011 which ended in him winning a Pertemps Qualifier. He then disappeared due to a tendon injury until the 2013 Cheltenham Festival where he went wrong again as he fractured his pelvis. He returned in March and was really impressive when winning at Newbury and then he followed that up with an equally easy success here in April. There are two slight worries about him being the ground and trip, but I think he will stay and in a weak renewal he is one of the classiest horse in the race. Pearlysteps – Based on his 4^th in the Foxhunter he is the best British trained hunter chaser this season. That was a cracking effort and it backed up his two impressive victories at Towcester and Ludlow. For me he ran right up to form when stepping up to 4m at the Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and if Universal Solider wins earlier, as I think he will, then it will be a massive boost to the form. He loves cut in the ground and we know he stays this far. He has a massive chance. Rosies Peacock – He was a long way 4^th in this last year, but given what was in front of him there is no discredit in that. Has had his usual solid season pointing and won at the weekend, but hard to see him being good enough to win this. Shoreacres – Clearly connections saw something different to me at Worcester last week, because I didn’t think he stayed 2m7f so how on earth they think he will stay another 5f I do not know. Start Royal – Connections were originally going for the AGA race but have gone for this one instead. I didn’t think he would stay at Fontwell, but in the end nothing was anywhere near good enough to test his stamina. This race is many, many levels up and I can’t have him at all. Vital Plot – An interesting contender from Ireland and he has won three of four points there this season. He made his hunter chase debut at the Punchestown Festival and did well enough to finish 2nd, but he was 20L behind On The Fringe which is further back than Pearlysteps was at Cheltenham and that suggests he has a bit to find. He also looked as if that trip was as far as he wanted to go. Summary – I would be a bit surprised if Paint The Clouds or Pearlysteps doesn’t manage to win this. I am giving the verdict to Pearlysteps as he looks to have everything in his favour whereas Paint The Clouds might not want ground this testing especially over this far. Certain Flight could be overpriced and he could be worth backing in the betting without market. Tip – Pearlysteps NB (also probably worth doing a R/F with Paint The Clouds) Alternative – Certain Flight e/w without the fav

[Sharp vs Square]

Re: UK Jump Racing 30th May Stratford Great preview above abd some deep insight but hope you won't minds adding something to the Stratford puzzle 19:50 Stratford = 6.Monetary Fund @ 3.00 Marathonbet (4/10 stake) The 19:50 3,3m. Hcp Hurdle at Stratford running in a couple of hours looks like belonging to 5.Monetary Fund in my opinion. I can see him running strong from the first hurdle onwards with only 3.Oscar Prairie able to trouble him. The trace is going to suit him, the distance is OK, A.Coleman is on the saddle which is plus when a long distance and must be added Miss V Williams is the trainer. Have a good feeling on this one and hope it brings the profit to every follower’s wallet! :hope