Flat Racing 26th May

[chris34]

2.15 Leicester Decent prize available for these 6 fillies. Kosika wasn’t beating much when winning a 4 runner handicap at Bath on firm ground, this is very different on soft ground and unlikely to get such a soft lead under a penalty today. Trixie Malone has now won her last 3 starts this season, last time out again not beating much in a 4 runner event, up 3lb today in much stronger race and another that likes to make all. Hannahs Turn is another prominent racer who is a Southwell specialist but has shown little on turf and polytrack recently and probably running her mark down for next winter. Dutch Mistress hasn’t been seen for nearly a year and probably best watched at this stage. Broughtons Charm wasn’t beaten far at York last time out but all wins have come on AW but not without a fair chance in this. Fanoos might be worth a chance returning to handicap company. She really caught the eye when winning at Kempton in March. She has her quirks and it may just be that this small yard can nurse her through as she clearly has ability. Shaping well again at Lingfield on AW Champions day. Acted on soft ground last year and could well have more to offer yet off just a 4lb higher mark. 2pt win Fanoos 7/2 PP 3.15 Carlisle Bartack is only a 1lb above his last winning mark, but ran no sort of race on only try around here a concern, also needs to build on latest 4^th to be involved here. Hakuna Matata won a soft ground 5 runner handicap at Newcastle last time out, 4lb rise leaves him on a career high mark and needing a lot more on faster ground. Kiwi Bay won first time up over a mile at Redcar on G/S ground not so good on faster ground last time out over same CD under 6lb rise. Needs to bounce back now. Shadowtime came on for his first run this season with a very good 2^nd at Beverley, quickly up 3lb for that effort and is now 5lb above last winning mark and will do well to overcome this based on last seasons effort. Im Super Too has proved consistent this season and got his head in front at Hamilton on penultimate start held under a penalty last time out and a further 2lb higher today makes life a lot tougher. Ralphy Boy scored narrowly last time out, 5lb rise nothing more than fair and overall profile doesn’t suggest a follow up is high on the agenda. Al Muheer might be worth a chance in a slightly weaker race than he contested last time out. He rather fell out of the stalls last time out and never got involved, had shown promise on penultimate start at Beverley in cheekpieces. They are back on today and is 6lb below last winning mark and looks dangerously handicapped with yard still going well. 1pt e/w Al Muheer 14/1 bet365 4.15 Redcar The annual renewal of the Zetland Gold Cup fairly good renewal although it is full of exposed handicappers to be fair. Sennockian Star is useful on his day, he is now 6lb above last winning mark and big ask off this sort of mark. Ennistown ran a promising race on seasonal reappearance at Lingfield and if coming on from that would have a chance but again doesn’t have much room for error of a mark this high. Stepping Ahead will love the softer conditions but is quickly up 5lb for latest 2^nd which looks harsh and needs to take a step forward again, but could improve further yet unlike most of these. Strictly Silver is consistent but looks held by the handicapper on recent runs, but given him a chance reducing his mark by 4lb but below par last couple runs. Whispering Warrior needs a career best effort of this mark 4lb above last winning mark at Wolverhampton. Disappointing in Lincoln but been given a break and return to further will suit. Ginger Jack is yet to totally convince over this trip and is probably best passed over. Ajmany is the favourite and probably rightly so and a rather boring selection. He is the least exposed of this field, he was a very a good 2^nd at Newmarket in Suffolk Stakes on Guineas weekend. The front 2 pulled nicely clear of some useful handicappers behind, handicapper also took note and put him up 6lb but this is somewhat less competitive and could take all the beating here especially if stripping fitter. 2pt win Ajmany 7/2 bet365

[calculus]

Re: Flat Racing 26th May I realise two of these prices have now gone, but they were correct at the time when I posted them in My Thread 4:15 Redcar - Ajmany (4/1 William Hill) 3pts Win History would suggest that you need to concentrate on the 4 year olds with scope for improvement in this race and the betting rather reflects that, as there are only four of them in the race and they are all within the first 5 in the betting. The one I am very keen on here is Luca Cumani's Ajmany who looks likely to progress into a decent sort over middle distances this season on the basis of a very encouraging effort when just denied over a furlong shorter at Newmarket on his seasonal debut. He has taken a whack in the ratings for that effort but I think it was a tougher race than he faces tomorrow and he will more than likely improve for the run as most of Cumani's horses do. The yard have won this race twice in recent years with similar sorts, both of whom went on to be better than handicappers and I think this one looks quite likely to do the same, I personally had him in as 9/4 fav so I think the 4/1 is worthy of sizeable investment. 4:10 Windsor – Piazon (5/1 Bet365) 1.75pts Win The real impetus for this bet was the fact that the bookmakers have chalked up the incredibly frustrating Jazz as market leader and I just have to oppose him. He has been well backed on his last three runs and failed to deliver on each occasion, last time out at Chester he looked to have absolutely everything in his favour but was well beaten in 3rd, this is a bit easier but he could well be a sitting duck at the business end and at around 5/2 I think he is at least half the price he should be. The one I like is Piazon, who is quite closely matched with Jazz on a line of form through Kickboxer, who they both finished behind on their last runs. I do think that Piazon did not get much luck in running and he is probably better judged on his previous two runs when second on his seasonal debut and then winning when backed as if defeat was out of the question at Yarmouth. The form of that Yarmouth race is working out quite well with the second place Nova Champ making all in a very good handicap at Newmarket on his next start. I had my selection in as favourite at around the 3/1 mark so I think he should be backed here. 5:40 Windsor – Dominate (12/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win This looks like a bit of a trappy contest with a few horses in good recent form and a few who would have very good claims if they returned to their best historical form. Dominate falls into the latter category, as his last win was over C & D in this grade off a 3lb higher mark at the start of last season and he spent most of last year competing in much better races than this. He has been rather disappointing so far this season, especially when strong in the market last time out but he did not look to run his race there as he hung all over the course and he now meets the winner, Link Drives Lady, on 5lb better terms. Hard to know whether he has just fallen out of love with the game or if there is another reason as to why he has shown such little sparkle in two runs this year but I think he looks potentially very well treated if returning to anything like his best form, he seems to go best with a bit of a cut in the ground and has won at Windsor before, I am willing to give him another chance and will have a small interest.