FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary

[FedericoBTH]

This year target: to not lose money while enjoying racing! :D #1 7.00 HAMILTON (Class 5 - 1m Hcp) ALLURING STAR @9/4 (Bet365 #BOG) Hat trick completed 6 days ago when winning an apprentice race on same distance and going by 1L with a solid and steady progression started around 3f out. Penalty escaped and same mark of 62 today, so still backable despite the better field. She caught my eye as reliable mare with a stunning 3/4 in 2014 as a 6yo and despite shewill debut at Hamilton tonight she definitely will love the ground since her record on good-to-soft is 4/11. Graham Gibbons in rocking form with already 11 wins in the last 14 days will be again her partner. Easterby's runners are really hitting form recently too, so connections look extremely solid. I think it's not too mug as a choice despite the 111 in the form, especially because it's a low rated race. Anyway at the price I'm glad to take the risk.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary Alluring Star only 4th despite competitive. For tomorrow I've identified one race only worth to dig in, the Triconnex Handicap at Newmarket (race #2, scheduled for 2.20). #2 and #3 2.20 NEWMARKET (Class 2 - 1m6f Handicap) EXPERT FIGHTER @5/1 (Coral #BOG) BLUE WAVE @14/1 (Betfred #BOG) Two selections with equal stake since I equally fancy both. Expert Fighter should be one of the contenders in my opinion since he looked shaped at the end of last year (his last two form figures are 3 and 2) and he will enjoy the ride of a superstar like Silvestre de Sousa, by far the best jockey at the course and in this race too obviously. Long trip isn't a problem but there are questions about form translating from AW on turf. Blue Wave is the typical Mark Johnston product with (apparently) little to no chance and a big SP ready to cruise home. He's the lonely of the field with more than a couple of outings this season (already several starts under his belt in 2014) and the form looks gone judging by his recent performances, especially his seasonal turf debut last month (only 8th). Anyway thanks to the more than 30l behind taken in the last two times out he's now rated 96, which is 5lbs lighter than lto and 4 less than his last win. Underestimating this type of horses trained by Johnston is always a huge mistake. No reason to play an e/w bet since it's a boom or bust type of pick imho.