kreator88 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Hello together, been a while since I last posted in here ... but been working on 4 systems in this time. Got quite far into testing with 2 of them and will start betting real money on them since the begining of next week (still need this time to gather the needed bankroll) Will use betfair odds ... and till next week i will try to be as accurate as possible in setting up the prices (since next will they will be 100& accurate, as it will be my own prices) Most admit from the start that I am a statistician not a horse tipster ... got a a clue about racing but I will avoid writing analysis... as for sure I am not good at it (I am more a good prospect of system 1 :spank 1. System is a laying system of tipsters in bad form or a bad general ROI (Got a quite huge list of tipsters from different websites and offline ... which I compare to define the lays) 2. Quite similar with the above one, just I will back horses of in form or positive ROI tipsters. the following 2 are systems that I am not yet confident about... 3. I can not yet decide if this brings profit or not... as I can not yet decide if to integrate them in the 1 or 2 system... I will test this in lay format ...but might prove as a very profitable backing system... 4. For this thing I had the time to test and was sure about it... till yesterday when I had a loser (laying at around 40) - Plumpton 4:25 Azabitmour ... won by a nose which made me quite insecure... I tryed to develop a rating system and analyse just the running (despite a few others saying the top speed might be also very important... think I don't have enough racing exp for this so I will stick just to the all weather and a few flats.... Laying the worst runner in the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Will start all 4 Systems with a bank of 1000 and 10 pts / pick System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 System 4 coming later on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Sounds interesting welcome to the forum and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Thanks santos :) Reposting and including the System 4 bets - keep in mind that just the first 2 system are acurrately tested.. Will start all 4 Systems with a bank of 1000 and 10 pts / pick System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 System 4 : 2:10 Red Mey Blossom - lay @ 28 2:45 Red Cowslip - lay @ 13,5 3:20 Red Ad vitam - lay @ 23 Mitchum - lay @ 100 3:55 Red The great gabriel - lay @ 200 Just Paul lay @ 28 5:05 Red Cape of Hope lay @ 4.9 Great Demeanor lay @ 46 5:40 Red Lucky Lodge lay @ 12 6:10 Red Kinkohyo lay @ 50 3:35 Yar Nova Champ lay @ 6.8 5:20 Yar Comanche lay @ 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve82 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) How long have you been testing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Hi Steve the first system (which is the main one) I have tested for around 3 weeks (but if you see the amount of bets / day you can see that it gathers a high amount of bets). The problem in testing both the 1st and 4th system is that without using real money 1 you have to estimate sometimes the price (usually I add a worst case scenario of matching price) and it's more or less impossible to calculate the actual prices (going down because of withdraws for example). So till next week I will more or less post a worst case scenario of prices :) The 2nd system I developed while working on the first and the 3rd system is just there as I got confused by the very high amount of winners around 3 - 4.50 of generally long therm losing punters and I am yet not sure what to do with those. 4th System is newer one and as you will see in the results there are still to many best and since today I will add another filter to this. To sum up yesterday was not a bad day ... but unfortunately we had a winner in the 1st System which in a worst case scenario would mean a small lose. Same case in the 4th system where again I had a similar high loser as 2 days ago... hope to get rid of those by adding the filter (Will just take races where I have higher amount of data of the horses running on same distance in the short past .... Took Ad Vitam yesterday having just his data and it looked very bad for the type of race... unfortunately the other were even worster :P) System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 WON + 10 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 WON + 10 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 WON + 10 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 WON + 10 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 WON + 10 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 LOST - 70 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 WON + 10 Total P/L -10 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 WON + 9.4 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 LOST - 10 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 WON + 9.4 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 LOST - 10 Total P/L -8 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 LOST - 24 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 WON + 10 Total P/L -14 System 4 : 2:10 Red Mey Blossom - lay @ 28 WON + 10 2:45 Red Cowslip - lay @ 13,5 WON + 10 3:20 Red Ad vitam - lay @ 23 LOST - 220 Mitchum - lay @ 100 WON + 10 3:55 Red The great gabriel - lay @ 200 WON + 10 Just Paul lay @ 28 WON + 10 5:05 Red Cape of Hope lay @ 4.9 WON + 10 Great Demeanor lay @ 46 WON + 10 5:40 Red Lucky Lodge lay @ 12 WON + 10 6:10 Red Kinkohyo lay @ 50 WON + 10 3:35 Yar Nova Champ lay @ 6.8 WON + 10 5:20 Yar Comanche lay @ 9 WON + 10 Total P/L -110 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Todays bets: System 1: [TABLE=class: tbl t3 enable-sort, width: 100%] [TR] [TD]14:15 Kel Doubledisdoubledat lay @ 3.7 14:50 Kel Nodform Richard lay @ 5.2 15:00 Lud Talkonthestreet lay @ 4.9 15:35 Lud Zafaraban lay @ 80 17:25 Yar Rookery lay @ 20 18:55 Yar Push Me lay @ 8.2 18:25 Yar Mr Red Clubs lay @ 10 15:45 Weth Bohemian Rhapsody lay @ 4.2 20:15 Wolv Hinton Admiral lay @ 13[/TD] [TD=class: ixt][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2: 17:10 Lud Nicolas Chauvin back @ 2.38 16:55 Yar Golden Steps back @ 2.32 17:55 Yar Freedom's Light back @ 2.40 19:15 Wolv Travel back @ 1.34 13:45 Kel Lord Brendy back @ 2.04 20:45 Wolv Whispering Start back @ 2.20 16:20 Yar Charlies Star back @ 1.71 System 3: 15:35 Lud Kingsmere lay @ 3.15 System 4: 5:45 Wolv Trefnant lay @ 46 Brean Splash Susie lay @ 16 7:15 Wolv Miss Tiger Lily lay @ 9 7:45 Wolv Piceno lay @ 13.5 8:15 Wolv Odd Ball lay @ 80 this is it for today guys :) GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Ok... conclussion of 2nd day ... it was a lot better than the first one ... with nearly all-in at the 1st system and with a 100% strike rate of the 4th system after the filtering. Done also some further research into the 2nd and 3rd system and somehow it takes to much time and doesnt bring me a lot further... due to the fact that I will be pretty busy into the next days I will post a little bit less and only the 1st and 4th system (most probably the evening races) will make also a some up of the 2 systems System 1: [TABLE=class: cms_table_tbl cms_table_t3 cms_table_enable-sort, width: 100%] [TR] [TD]14:15 Kel Doubledisdoubledat lay @ 3.7 LOST - 27 14:50 Kel Nodform Richard lay @ 5.2 WON + 10 15:00 Lud Talkonthestreet lay @ 4.9 WON + 10 15:35 Lud Zafaraban lay @ 80 WON + 10 17:25 Yar Rookery lay @ 20 WON + 10 18:55 Yar Push Me lay @ 8.2 WON + 10 18:25 Yar Mr Red Clubs lay @ 10 WON + 10 15:45 Weth Bohemian Rhapsody lay @ 4.2 WON + 10 20:15 Wolv Hinton Admiral lay @ 13 WON + 10[/TD] [TD=class: cms_table_ixt][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2: 17:10 Lud Nicolas Chauvin back @ 2.38 LOST - 10 16:55 Yar Golden Steps back @ 2.32 WON + 13 17:55 Yar Freedom's Light back @ 2.40 LOST - 10 19:15 Wolv Travel back @ 1.34 WON + 3 13:45 Kel Lord Brendy back @ 2.04 WON + 10 20:45 Wolv Whispering Start back @ 2.20 LOST - 10 16:20 Yar Charlies Star back @ 1.71 WON + 7 System 3: 15:35 Lud Kingsmere lay @ 3.15 WON + 10 System 4: 5:45 Wolv Trefnant lay @ 46 WON + 10 Brean Splash Susie lay @ 16 WON + 10 7:15 Wolv Miss Tiger Lily lay @ 9 WON + 10 7:45 Wolv Piceno lay @ 13.5 WON + 10 8:15 Wolv Odd Ball lay @ 80 WON + 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) System 1: Day 1: - 10 Day 2: + 53 Total: + 43 (Bets: 14W - 2L) System 4: Day 1: - 110 Day 2: + 50 Total: - 60 (Bets: 16W - 1L) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Ok I will try to post a few picks from today via phone: System 4: 3:40 Catt Evanescent lay @ 15.5 3:25 Epsom Weapon of Choice lay @ 32 Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) System 1: 5:20 Catt Secret City lay @ 6.8 17:55 Cat foolsandorses lay @ 400 This is all that qualifyes for today GL Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Sorry for the mistake on the last one it was taunton not cat. The good thing is all were winners today :) Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Totals after day 3 System 1: Day 1: - 10 Day 2: + 53 Day 3: + 20 Total: + 63 (Bets: 16W - 2L) System 4: Day 1: - 110 Day 2: + 50 Day 3: + 20 Total:- 40(Bets: 18W - 1L) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) For today I will try to make another post later today, but till now the following horses qualify in my systems: System 1: 14:30 Bev Thatchereen lay @ 9,6 16:30 Bev Opera Fan lay @ 4,3 15:20 Perth Seebright lay @ 5,9 15:50 Perth Citizenship lay @ 13,5 16:20 Perth Tap Night lay @ 8,6 14:40 War Clubland lay @ 9,2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Another 1 for system 1: Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) 17:40 newc Spinner Lane lay @150 Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) System 4: 6:35 Tip lay big bad lilly @ 12,5 And that is all for today Gesendet von meinem iPhone mit Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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