The Grand National and how to lose your money.

[TheLubet]

I love the Grand National and this year makes for a very interesting event. Picking the winner and making some money is the name of the game. I could back every runner and still lose so I’ll try to reduce the field to 6 lose less LOL. I’ve a lot of research done on the internet and The dreaded trends to contend with. So here goes. The best horse in the race? Long Run has to be the best horse in the field. I don’t know about you but why run in the Gold cup against faster rivals and win £326,326 when you can run in the Grand National and win £561,300 against lesser opposition. The Waley-Cohens ain’t stupid it’s all about the money honey. Apart from a significant age difference, Long Run has a similar profile to Tidal Bay in that he too has only ever unseated his pilot once and he is classy enough to actually have won the Gold Cup. He enjoyed a confidence boosting success at Kelso recently having struggled to cope with the new generation of top three mile chasers earlier in the season. Missing Cheltenham may prove to be a masterstroke as he comes here fresh and his strength has always been his stamina. He is dangerously well handicapped on his best form and, like Tidal Bay, can handle most conditions. If he takes to the challenge, he could be hard to beat and his ametuer jockey, Sam Waley-Cohen has an outstanding record over these fences. The best Handicapped horse in the race? Burton Port who was running off of a mark of 166 when fourth in the 2012 Gold Cup for Nicky Henderson. He is now with Jonjo O’Neill and his mark has plummeted to 145 following some uninspiring efforts for his new yard. There were definite signs of a return to form last time at Newbury though and better ground in the spring definitely seems to bring out the best in him. He certainly can’t be written off given O’Neill’s outstanding record with staying chasers and owner Trever Hemmings has won this great race twice before. The Tip. Got this last night playing holdem from a guy in form with the ponies. Big Shu. Like Balthazar King, Big Shu is a cross country specialist and he was third behind Phillip Hobbs’ charge at the Festival recently. He would probably prefer the ground to be slightly softer than it was that day as he certainly has reserves of stamina. He is also improving all the time having only been very lightly raced in his younger days, so he has a very good chance of overturning the Cheltenham form with his old rival here and all in all he looks a solid each way option. The Horse that keeps on improving Triolo D’alane. Was also in action at Cheltenham a few weeks ago where he ran well for a long way in the Gold Cup. Prior to that he had won the Hennessy and he finished off last season with back to back wins that included a success over these fences in the Topham. Again, good ground is key to his chances. He is 10lbs higher here than when winning at Newbury and although he is lightly raced enough to still be improving, he did have quite a hard race last time out. Others may be better handicapped and he may struggle to stay if the ground turns soft. He is, though, a very sound jumper on the whole. The Trends (I’ve reduced them down for now) Chase wins of 3M+ Min 1 Win Runs over National Fences Zero Wins This season Zero Offical Rating 135+ Chase Runs 8+ Biggest Chase Win Min £20,000 Career Prize Money Min £50,000 Weight 10-2 to 11-9 Age 7-13 Season Runs at least 2 Season Falls 1 Career Falls 4 Last race Finish anywhere Age 7-13 Season runs At Least 2 Days Since Last run over 10 under 80 So where am I Now, down to 16 and The four I fancy are in the trends so far. Teafortree 10/1 Moonbeg Dude 12/1 Double Seven 14/1 Balthazar King 18/1 Prince De Beauchene 20/1 The Rainbow Hunter 28/1 Shakalackaboomboom 33/1 Chance Du Roy 33/1 Lion De Bearnai 40/1 Quito de La Roque 40/1 Mountanious 50/1 Raz De Maree 50/1 Long Run 12/1 Burton Port 18/1 Triolo D’alane 22/1 (I’ve backed this at 30’s 3 weeks ago) Big Shu 25/1 I’m going to take 2 out and they are previous fallers in the national The Rainbow Hunter 28/1 Shakalackaboomboom 33/1 Now for the Crazy withdrawel McCoy out 1 win in 20 not good enough for me. Double Seven 14/1 The cross country chase has a bad record so bye bye. Balthazar King 18/1 Not finished 1-2-or 3 in last 3 starts Prince De Beauchene 20/1 Quito de La Roque 40/1 Raz De Maree 50/1 Now where Am I Teafortree 10/1 Moonbeg Dude 12/1 Chance Du Roy 33/1 Lion De Bearnai 40/1 Mountanious 50/1 Long Run 12/1 Burton Port 18/1 Triolo D’alane 22/1 (I’ve backed this at 30’s 3 weeks ago) Big Shu 22/1 Pick 2 from 5, interesting. Lets Have a look at The punters picks first. 1st – Long Run (12/1) 2nd – Pineau De Re (28/1) 3rd – Burton Port (18/1) 4th – Walkon (50/1) 5th – Big Shu (25/1) 6th – Wayward Prince (80/1) Chance Du Roy (40/1 – Main Bet) [h=3]Mr Moonshine (50/1)[/h][h=3]Walkon (50/1)[/h]Teaforthree 5.37pt Win at 10/1 (Various) Long Run 3.47pt Win at 16/1 (Various) Mr Moonshine 1.16pt Win at 50/1 (Ladbrokes) · 1 - Teaforthree · 2 - Balthazar King · 3 - Double Seven · 4 - The Package Most Popular on the tote ten to follow Rocky Creek Tidal Bay Long Run Teaforthree Balthazar King Pineau De Re interests me because he ran a hurdle race in Cheltenham in March, so He’s in. Last one for the List Chance Du Roy If I stick to all the correct Trends Then he and Baltazer King make the grade. Chase wins of 3M+ Min 1 Win Runs over National Fences Min Once Wins This season 1 Rating 143 Chase Runs 10+ Biggest Chase Win Min £20,000 Career Prize Money Min £50,000 Age 8-11 Weight 10-2 to 11-7 Season Runs at least 3 Season Falls Max 1 Career Falls Max 2 Last race Finish in the top 5 So thats me E/W 1-6 :hope Long Run 12/1 Burton Port 18/1 Triolo D’alane 22/1 (I’ve backed this at 30’s 3 weeks ago) Big Shu 22/1 Pineau De Re 28/1 Chance Du Roy 33/1

[TheLubet]

Re: The Grand National and how to lose your money. Pineau De Re 28/1 Winner :rollin Chance Du Roy 33/1 6th :clap Good race, I have to say I'm disappointed with my other 4 picks Burton Port and Big Shu are not Aintree fence types, Triolo dalane did'nt stay and Long Run, well what can i say, he has a Gold cup. Across the Bay must be sick as a parrot having been run out by Tidal Bay. Just having a look at the trends to keep in mind for next year to see where I lost Pineau and its the money honey, where i lost him. Thankfully keeping the hurdle race at the back of my mind last time out paid dividends. Chance de roi finished 6th. I had dismissed Baltazer King because of The cross country chase at Cheltenham and he finished 2nd. Maybe if he had'nt run as much as he did this season he may have been closer. Both Pineau De Re and Chance Du Roi had a lot of races this season so it seems the fences and the race in general is proving fruitful to a certain type of horse. The trends were pretty close. Delighted Mccoy didn't win, sick of all his hype on national day, they seem to think he can get on a donkey and win this race because of the Mccoy factor, fair play for being 3rd but ce la vie. Just re-did the trends as follows and it threw up 4 Chase wins of 3M+ Min 1 Win Runs over National Fences Min Once Wins This season 1 ( Even with No season win's it was the same 4 ) Rating 135+ Chase Runs 10+ Biggest Chase Win Min £10,000 Career Prize Money Min £25,000 Age 8-11 Weight 10-2 to 11-7 Season Runs at least 3 Season Falls Max 1 Career Falls Max 2 Last race Finish in the top 5 Baltazar King 2nd Mr Moonshine 16th Pineau de re Winner Chance de Roi 6th Pineau de re did have another stat which i didn't include and that was a win over fences against 12+ rivals. That's it for another year, love it, love it, love it. Something to look forward too.