How do you pick your own bets?

[snyena]

I am curious to see how your perfect betting day/session looks like. Do you have a routine procedure for picking your own bets or do you play it by ear? Where do you look for a list of events to pick from? What are the vital factors that make you realize something is a good bet? My betting session looks like this: 1. I look at a list of games to be played on a given day, sometimes one or two days in advance. I almost only bet on soccer, so the 'Soccer - Fixtures' section on Betfair does the trick for me. 2. I look at the relevant league tables and confront them with the odds from an odds comparison site. If a price for a certain outcome stands out for me, I shortlist the game. I use goal differences and league position as the key factors. Sometimes I might use my own knowledge of the teams. 3. I take a closer look into the shortlisted games. The list can be anything from 0 to 15, depending on the day. I look at PL's forums and sometimes elsewhere too. If I discover something I dislike, I remove the game from my shortlist. 4. In the end I am left with two or three games and I usually bet on those.

[mr onemore]

Re: How do you pick your own bets? Hi Snyena, Interesting question - always fun to say how others approach this game... I've seen your thread - and you're obviously a very knowledgeable and succcessful punter. It's just with that in mind that I'm really surprised by your first 2 steps.

1. I look at a list of games to be played on a given day, sometimes one or two days in advance. I almost only bet on soccer, so the 'Soccer - Fixtures' section on Betfair does the trick for me. 2. I look at the relevant league tables and confront them with the odds from an odds comparison site. If a price for a certain outcome stands out for me, I shortlist the game. I use goal differences and league position as the key factors. Sometimes I might use my own knowledge of the teams.

I try to make the Bookies odds the very last place that I look when working out a bet. I don't want there influence affecting my judgement before I've worked out what I feel the odds should be. If we had Team A playing Team B, and you didn't know the odds - you'd read up on the teams, find out a few things first, get a feeling for which team you thought was the better, and by how much etc. It would be your judgement pure and simple. However, when you know that the Bookies are pricing this in a certain way, it must affect your judgement. Don't believe it? Try this experiment. Choose a sport or division you don't know too much about. Check Betfair to see if there is a market - but don't look at the odds. Go and read up on the internet about the match - come up with your own judgement and odds. Now look at the odds in Betfair - guarantee you'll find what you believe to be a value bet - works every time. You'll find far more value bets 'jumping out at you' this way. What's the catch? Well, how good is your judgement? It's got to be good to beat the bookie and his overround. At least doing it this way you'll get good feedback. I must admit that in practice, I do find this difficult to do. When you've been in the game you kind of 'know' where the bookie is going to set his odds anyway before you look. Still, I do aspire to this, and do my best to work things out before checking the odds. It's just a thought - as I say, you seem to be doing very well your own way so stick with it:ok I'm just surprised that's all:loon