BBOTD > Thursday April 3rd

[Aidymac]

Aintree 2:30 Six horses have been declared for this contest and the impressive Ryanair Chase winner Dynaste heads the betting for this race at 2/1 with Bet365. The David Pipe trained 8 year old grey gelding is a very classy animal on his day and he won here at Aintree last year on his only run at this track. He beat Third Intention by 6 lengths in the Grade 2 Mildmay Novices' Chase here last year and although this is a good deal tougher, he deserves to be favourite. The Paul Nicholls trained Silviniaco Conti is the second favourite at 9/4 with Sky Bet and he ran well when 4th in the Gold Cup a few weeks ago. He could only manager 3rd in this race last year though when going off the 11/10 favourite and has a bit to prove. The horse that looks overpriced in the market in my opinion is the Philip Hobbs trained Menorah who is no 12/1 shot with Coral in my book for such a small field of horses. The quirky but talented 9 year old gelding ran a stinker in the Ryanair Chase at the festival this year but he seems to love it here at Aintree and he is yet to be out of the first two places from three runs here. He won the Manifesto Novices' Chase by 7 lengths here in 2012 and he ran a cracker in the Betfred Bowl last year when he finished 2nd to First Lieutenant in a thrilling finish. He seems to also prefer small fields, his last 4 wins have come in races with 5 runners or less so he might find it much easier to settle here and he looks a belting price. In summary I think Dynaste is going to have to put in a very big effort again to land this race as sometimes winning at Cheltenham can take an awful lot out of a horse but if he is fit and well he has a big chance. I am not sure what to make of Silviniaco Conti, he is highly talented but only managed 3rd in this race last year and he folded tamely in the Gold Cup when looking like the winner. First Lieutenant won this race last year but he has been nowhere near that sort of form this season and was beat 9 lengths by Last Instalment at Leopardstown last time out. I think Menorah is the clear value of the race at 12/1, if he is on a going day he will be bang there jumping the last and Johnson is riding out of his skin of late. Menorah - 1 Point WIN @ 11/1 Bet Victor

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD > Thursday April 3rd 2.00 Aintree – Commissioned 0.5pt EW @ 14/1 Bet365 The Triumph Hurdle is usually a good pointer in this race but that trend was broken last year with L’Unique skipping Cheltenham in favour of this race having won the Adonis at Kempton. In fact the first 3 home in this race last year all missed Cheltenham with Flaxen Flare in 4^th being the best finisher of those that raced at the festival. If that stat were to be followed again this year then plenty of the main contenders in this race would be ruled out such as Calipto, Guitar Pete, Hawk High and Broughton. Activial who won the Adonis at Kempton is rightly vying for favouritism but I am going to take a chance on the horse that finished 2^nd in the Adonis, Commissioned. He is trained by John Ferguson and has only had 2 runs over hurdles. He showed plenty of improvement on his 2^nd run at Kempton in the first time blinkers to get within a few lengths of Activial. He put in a few sketchy jumps that day and had to be switched or wait for room at certain points in the race but he stayed on well once O’Regan asked him for his effort. If he can cut out any jumping errors, I think we will see an improved performance from him if the ground continues to dry up. All of his flat form came on quick ground so the dryer the better for this son of Authorized. He keeps the blinkers on which is no surprise and would not have to improve too much to get involved here. John Ferguson has his horses in form so I am hopeful of a big run. I think Activial is the main danger but I would underestimate Hawk High who travelled so nicely in the Fred Winter and quickened well after the last. He is another horse that would prefer good ground so connections will be hoping the rain stays away. It will be interesting to see what Calipto can do given how unlucky he was in the Triumph but I think this could be fought out by the 1-2 from the Adonis at Kempton with hopefully Commissioned reversing the form.