Tournament betting, examining strategies.

[Datapunter]

Been playing around with some ideas for tournament betting. The idea is to place bets early, then continue placing bets as the matches unfold, and end up with a sure profit by the end of the tournament. Quite a few variations possible so just wondering if anyone has been doing any of these. 1) Lay the favourite in the tournament winner market. Use the possible profit of that to place bets on his match markets. First few matches gives a break even result, but if he lasts long enough, and at the right price, he can be backed for a profit whatever happens. 2) Back an outsider with a decent chance. Use the possible profit to Lay this outsider in his matches. So the opposite of the above. Again, first few matches are break even, if he lasts a bit you can Lay for a profit either way. 3) Either of the above but get out with a profit right after the match. So lay the favourite, use that potential profit to back him in his first match. If he wins the odds on the winner market will go down. If they go down only slightly you can use the profit from the match bet on the winner market and thus create a sure profit. Obviously you could do this with multiple players. Just look at the draw for a tournament, see who meets early and late and use that to select what strategy to use on who. For now i'll just stick with one person at a time. So anyone been doing this kind of thing ? Anyone got some odds, need the winner market odds as the tournament goes on, and the match odds. Its the winner market at different stages thats the problem, anyone got that ?

[Datapunter]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. For example i'm looking at the Embassy Snooker tournament. ( note i'm rounding the numbers so it all reads a bit easier ) First strategy Ronny O'Sullivan can be layed at 2.50, So a liability of 1000 gives a potential profit of 666. His first match, of a possible series of 5, is priced at 1.30 I can back that with a stake of 666. So if he loses his first match, i lose the stake of 666 but win on the tournament winner market, so break even. If he wins his first match, i get a profit of 220, and retain a possible loss on the winner market of -1000, so overall a liability of -800 with 4 matches to go. I can then place a stake of 666+220=886 on his next match. Again if he loses the match, i break even, if he wins i make a profit. Assuming i can get a price of 1.30 on each match then i can guarantee a profit on the 4th match. 1st match: 666 @ 1.30 = 220 -1000 = -780 2nd match: 886 @ 1.30 = 265 -780 = -515 3rd match: 1140 @ 1.30 = 340 - 515 = -175 4th match: 1480 @ 1.30 = 444 - 175 = +269 So using the potential profit from the tournament winner market i get 1269 in profit on the 4 matches, lose 1000 on the winner market and retain 269 in profit, should a match lose before the final i simply break even. second strategy The reverse of the previous one, backing an outsider and then laying him in his matches, i'll look at an example later. third strategy If Ronnie wins his first match the odds on the tournament winner market will drop. But suppose they don't drop all that much, lets say down to 2.20 I can then use the profit from the first match to lock in a sure profit whatever happens : Back 666 @ 2.20 = 800 ( my original profit from the lay ) Back 220 @ 2.20 = 264 ( my profit from the first match ) retain 64 profit on Ronnie winning the tournament or to lock in the profit: Back 165 @ 2.20 = 200 So level the tournament winner market and put 55 of the profit on the first match in our pocket. Obviously it all depends on the available prices. But there is potential here.