Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th I have gone for Act Of Payroll here who should improve bundles on what he has shown so far, Dessie Hughes is brilliant at improving a horse. Paul Carberry takes the ride and he was masterful on Guitar Pete today. He looks a nice price at 13/2. I have also had an each-way bet on Gentleman John who looks a big price at 50/1, I had him down as a 25/1 chance. Has to improve a lot, but won a maiden in good style last time out and still is very lightly raced. Act Of Payroll - 2 Points WIN @ 13/2 Paddy Power Gentleman Jon - 0.5 Points each-way @ 50/1 Stan James

[beaker1]

Re: Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th 2:00 International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle Seven of the last 15 winners posted a top-six finish in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the last two, Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, gaining compensation here for Nicky Henderson after finding just one too good in the traditional Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser. No surprise therefore that Henderson also runs this season’s Supreme runner-up, Josses Hill, here (he has also won three of the last four runnings) and the Supreme is also represented by the strong-finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless, who was a three-lengths detached last at one point. In addition to Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, another two J P McManus-owned Supreme runners-up have also found consolation here as Joe Mac and Straw Bear went one place better at Aintree than Cheltenham. The other guide to be of interest this year is the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle run at Kempton in late February won by Irving though it wouldn’t be a hugely strong guide. The winner doesn’t run here but the runner-up, Amore Alato, takes his chance. Two Dovecote winners won this race in the 1990s and last season’s winner was second. Whereas ex-bumper horses have won the last eight runnings of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, seven of the last 11 Top Novices’ hurdle winners started their career on the Flat so speed horses have been well on top. That said, the last two winners were ex-bumper horses but they were also exceptionally-speedy, class acts in Darlan and My Tent Or Yours. The only two Ex-Flat contenders this season are Mijhaar and King Of The Picts. It is refreshing to see three Irish raiders this season. Successful just twice in 38 runnings, with Grade 1 novice hurdles just around the corner at the Punchestown Festival their best novices are held back for those but Dessie Hughes has sent over Art Of Payroll (bolted up at Leopardstown in a handicap last time out), Charlie Swan runs The Game Changer (second in a Listed novice hurdle last time) in the Gigginstown silks and John Shanahan lets King Of The Picts (placed when well beaten in two Grade 1s) take his chance. Only 2lb separates the trio on official ratings. Of the last 17 winners all but four had won or finished second on their last hurdles start so King of The Picts has it to do on that score. So does Sgt Reckless having finished fourth in the Supreme but Supreme runners should be considered irrespective of whether they finished in the first two or not as three of the four that didn’t had run with credit in finishing between fourth and sixth in the Supreme (the other exited at the first flight). The front four in the market have won 18 of the last 23 runnings and no winner has made all for 17 years. Unsurprisingly, My Tent Or Yours outclassed his rivals at the age of six last year but eight of the previous ten winners were five-year-olds from just under 50% representation over that period. Five-year-olds in action this season are Amore Alato, Art Of Payroll, Baltimore Rock (won the Imperial Cup), Irish Cavalier (winner of three of his four novice hurdles at a much lower level), King Of The Picts and The Game Changer. Shortlist Josses Hill Baltimore Rock Mijhaar Conclusion Not a strong trends race but given that Nicky Henderson has won three of the last four runnings, two of which with the Supreme runner-up, then Josses Hill has to be the main trends pick as well as the form pick in his bid to become the fifth Supreme runner-up to gain consolation here since 1999. Although this has been a race in which ex-Flat horses have done very well, the last two Henderson-trained winners were ex-bumper horses as is Josses Hill. Given the excellent record of five-year-olds and horses to the fore in the market, then the Imperial Cup winner, Baltimore Rock, appeals as the main danger. He quickened up well on bad ground to win at Sandown so may be more value than the winning margin indicated that day. Mijhaar gets the final shortlist berth as this has been a good race for ex-Flat horses and he is just one of two of those in the race alongside the Irish raider, King Of The Picts, but this hasn’t been a great race for the Irish down the years. Rated as high as 109 at his peak on the level, he made a successful hurdling debut on Good ground before falling on his only other start on very heavy ground so this surface should be far more to his liking.

[sara]

Top Novices Hurdle t 2 00pm Friday April 4th Change of plan ?Barry GOSCAR HOOF won the two-mile novices hurdle well. It rode a good race and I think it might suit him stepping up to two and a half miles in the Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day.

[bennyblue]

Re: Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th Thanks for the heads up