CPO's Horse Racing Thread

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.10 Windsor - Persepolis 1pt win @ 16/1 Bet365 This horse used to be trained by Sir Michael Stoute but is now with Brett Johnson. He has had 4 runs for his new trainer all coming on the all weather. His first 2 runs for Johnson were encouraging as they both came in a higher grade than he races in today. His form however has tailed off in his last 2 runs so I am hoping a switch to turf will liven him up. His record on turf is much better with 1 win and a couple of 2nds from 6 runs. He is very well bred and should appreciate the slight cut in the ground today. He does have 1 previous run at the track where finished a close 2nd behind Powder Hound over 10f. He has been racing over further on the all weather but he drops down in trip to a mile today which I don't see being a problem considering his only career win came over a mile at Sandown where he won by 12 lengths. Brett Johnson actually has a good 15% strike rate at the track and shows a level stakes profit of +£14.40. Jimmy Fortune takes the ride and he has started the season well and he too shows a good 18% strike rate at Windsor.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 4.15 Pontefract - Clayton 2pts win @ 10/1 SportingBet Looks like an excellent card today at Pontefract with this being the best race on the card. I think the Kevin Ryan horse here has a good chance in this returning from a break. He has a history of going well fresh as he won easily on his racecourse debut and finished a very close 2nd on his return to action at Epsom last year in a class 2 event. He put up a career best effort 3 runs ago at Newmarket where he won from a mark of 93. He followed that with 2 more good efforts form higher marks and he should be able to go close in this if he can carry on form where he left off. Clayton has a good draw in 4 for a horse that likes to front run and Pontefract is a track that suits front runners. Paul Mulrennen is one of the top jocks at the track and Kevin Ryan has started the season in fine form.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.10 Pontefract - Khalice 1pt EW @ 16/1 Ladbrokes Early market signs aren't good for this horse but she strikes me as a horse that can progress well this season. She does have 1 run to her name at the track which came over CD on her racecourse debut where she was a little unlucky to finish 2nd. She didn't get the clearest of runs that day but finished well once in the clear. Both her career wins have come at Ripon and both times she made all. She was staying on strongly at the finish to suggest this stiff 6f will suit her down to the ground. She is drawn in 7 so it will be tough to get to the front but if she does she could prove tough to peg back. She did disappoint last time out on her last run of the season at Doncaster over 7f but that came in a very hot race and she was never able to get near the front. I think she can go well here with fitness pretty much reassured.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread

4.15 Pontefract - Clayton 2pts win @ 10/1 SportingBet Looks like an excellent card today at Pontefract with this being the best race on the card. I think the Kevin Ryan horse here has a good chance in this returning from a break. He has a history of going well fresh as he won easily on his racecourse debut and finished a very close 2nd on his return to action at Epsom last year in a class 2 event. He put up a career best effort 3 runs ago at Newmarket where he won from a mark of 93. He followed that with 2 more good efforts form higher marks and he should be able to go close in this if he can carry on form where he left off. Clayton has a good draw in 4 for a horse that likes to front run and Pontefract is a track that suits front runners. Paul Mulrennen is one of the top jocks at the track and Kevin Ryan has started the season in fine form.

Hallelujah :D

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 20p rule for Clayton 5.15 Pontefract - Pertuis 1pt EW @ 9/1 Bet365 Going to have a wager in the last on Pertuis. This horse is a CD winner and should come here relatively fit having raced over jumps during the winter. He was very consistent over jumps never finishing out of the first 6 in 4 races. Last year when he switched back to the flat after a similar winter, he finished last of 12 at Catterick but over 14f, which is probably a little too far for him. His recent record at Pontefract is very good. His record here since July 2012 reads 1-2-3-3-2 which makes him of great interest. He also usually races here under amateur riders so he should benefit from having Graham Lee on board for the first time. He is fine with soft ground and drawn in 2 here. His draw shouldn't make too much difference as he does like to be held up. Micky Hammond does well at the track and shows a good level stakes profit here. I think he is definitely one for an each way bet rather just a win bet but he should be staying on well.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread That's more like it 2 winners at Pontefract to make it a very good day.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.10 Nottingham - De Repente 1pt win @ 20/1 BetVictor I think De Repente is quite interesting in this race drawn in 1. She does like to race from the front so being drawn in 1 is very handy. Silvestre De Sousa is a very good jockey booking, which hints to me they might need business in booking one of the top jockeys at the track. She does have 1 run at the track which came last time out where she was pretty disappointing finishing 9th of 10. The biggest thing for me with this horse is she gets soft ground tomorrow. Twice last year she encountered soft ground and both times she won. The first time at Catterick over 5f and then 3 runs ago at Chester over 6f. Her proven stamina for 6f should also give her a slight edge on her rivals. Paul Green's horses have been running well without winning and he does have a good 14% strike rate at the track showing a level stakes profit of +£24. Plenty of these are making their reappearance so its impossible to know how they have trained on from 2 to 3. I think the fact De Repente has shown a clear preference for soft ground will hopefully see her go close. This race has a recent history of throwing up a few shocks with the last 3 winners all going off at double figure prices. It has also favoured those that race handy so there is plenty to like about the chances of De Repente on her return to action.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 4.10 Nottingham - Renew 1pt EW @ 11/1 Bet365 This looks a cracking race with so many in here with a chance but by the process of elimination I have sided with Renew. The 2 unexposed horses in the field could really be anything but they have had plenty of time away from the track which makes you think they have had their little niggles. This might be too sharp for High Jinx and Repeater has struggles to win for quite some time. I don't think the other horses will be good enough to win this, which leaves me with just Biographer and Renew. I slightly favour Renew at the prices and hopefully he will go well. He has been very consistent since joining Marco Botti finishing in the first 3 on all 6 runs in the UK. He was steadily progressive last year winning 3 times with his last win coming at this level at Newmarket. He is up in trip a couple of furlongs but a few of his runs have suggested he should have no problem. The slight doubt is with the ground as his best form has all come on fast ground but being Dansili I would expect him to handle any ground. He also comes into the race having had a recent run at Meydan so he should strip much fitter than his rivals. I am a big fan of Marco Botti. He has started the flat season in fine form and does well at the track. It's such a tough race to call but I would rather play each way with something than guess amongst the favourites who will come out on top.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread

4.10 Nottingham - Renew 1pt EW @ 11/1 Bet365 This looks a cracking race with so many in here with a chance but by the process of elimination I have sided with Renew. The 2 unexposed horses in the field could really be anything but they have had plenty of time away from the track which makes you think they have had their little niggles. This might be too sharp for High Jinx and Repeater has struggles to win for quite some time. I don't think the other horses will be good enough to win this, which leaves me with just Biographer and Renew. I slightly favour Renew at the prices and hopefully he will go well. He has been very consistent since joining Marco Botti finishing in the first 3 on all 6 runs in the UK. He was steadily progressive last year winning 3 times with his last win coming at this level at Newmarket. He is up in trip a couple of furlongs but a few of his runs have suggested he should have no problem. The slight doubt is with the ground as his best form has all come on fast ground but being Dansili I would expect him to handle any ground. He also comes into the race having had a recent run at Meydan so he should strip much fitter than his rivals. I am a big fan of Marco Botti. He has started the flat season in fine form and does well at the track. It's such a tough race to call but I would rather play each way with something than guess amongst the favourites who will come out on top.

Non-Runner

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 4.20 Catterick - Mystical Moment 1pt win @ 14/1 SportingBet This is probably the most competitive race of the day but there is one in here that interests me. Mystical Moment makes his first appearance for Edwin Tuer today from a lowly mark of 70. Kevin Stott takes the ride and takes off a handy 5lbs, which puts this horse on a very low mark when you take into account he was rated 83 this time last year. His form completely tailed off for Richard Hannon, which is why he has switched yards. The change of scenery may just perk him up a little and if he can rediscover his best form then he would have a massive chance here. He confirmed himself a decent horse when winning a soft ground maiden over 7f at Newmarket beating the likes of Nargys and Heading North. He hash't encountered soft ground many times throughout his career but he did when he won his only race. I think if his new trained can bring him back to his best then he could have a squeak in this.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread Rubbish day really. De Repente was quite well backed throughout the day but finished last! Mystical Moment ran well enough to finish 3rd but unfortunately I didn't back it each way. 2.20 Taunton - Torran Sound 1pt win @ 10/1 Hills I quite like the chances of Torran Sound here. This will only be his 3rd start for Lawney Hill but I feel conditions will be far more to his liking tomorrow with the forecast quicker ground. His 2 previous runs have been disappointing for Lawney Hill but those have both come on ground softer than ideal. I think the fact she brings him to Taunton where she has a 40% strike rate with recent runners could be a good pointer. He is also handicapped to go close if seeing out the trip as he has gone close several times from marks in the mid 90's. Tomorrow he races off 96 with Charilie Deutsch taking off another 3lbs which puts him a handy mark if he can bounce back to form. Lawney Hill usually does well with horses from other stables so I would expect this one to show some decent form sooner rather than later. Hopefully it will be tomorrow with conditions much more in his favour.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.40 Newbury - Zawaan 1pt win @ 8/1 PaddyPower Going to take a chance on the supposed 2nd string here. Paul Hanagan is on the favourite here but I quite like the chances of Zarwaan. This horse showed plenty of promise on debut and followed that with a convincing win at Haydock over 6f. The next 3 horses home in that race all won next time up and since then there have been plenty more wins from horses in that race. The 2nd horse home has convincingly won his next 3 starts so the form certainly has some substance. Zarwaan is bred to improve over further than 6f so I would be hopeful of a big run tomorrow. His 2 previous runs have come on quick ground but he should have no problems with the softer going tomorrow taking into account his pedigree. Ed Dunlop is operating at a 29% strike rate at the moment but slightly off-putting is the fact that only the well backed horses from the yard seem to be running well. I still think this horse can go well returning from a break and he is group 1 entered so they must something of him at home.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 2.30 Newbury - Albonny 1pt win @ 16/1 SportingBet Going to have a little punt on the Alan Jarvis trained Albonny in this one. This horse is returning from 246 days away from the track but did manage to win on his return to action last year so the absence doesn't bother me. I think key to this horse is the trip today. He has only raced over 2m 4 times in his career winning 3 times and finishing 1.5 lengths 3rd the other time. Only one of those efforts have come on turf which actually came on his latest win from a mark of 71. Jockey was able to claim 5lbs that day so he does have a little more weight to carry today from a mark of 72. He is however unexposed over this trip on turf and while his pedigree doesn't scream out for this sort of trip, he does seem to relish it. He found dropping back to 14f against him on his 2 final starts of last season and never really got involved in those races. Alan Jarvis shows a level stakes profit at the track from his recent runners and Dane O'Neil is again on board one of my selections today. I am hoping the ability to go well fresh and stepping back up to a distance he clearly likes will out the best in Albonny. He doesn't have to improve much on what he has shown so far in his career to get involved.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.50 Ayr – Alpha Victor 1pt win @ 25/1 Bet365 I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tidal Bay come out in the morning but even if he runs I think it’s a tough ask for him to win this. The one that makes most appeal to me in this is Alpha Victor who has only had 4 chase starts. He has started to get the hang of things over fences improving with every run but did manage to win over hurdles at Bangor a couple of starts ago by 11 lengths over 3m on heavy ground and then going so close in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. His effort at Uttoxeter was another step forward and had it not been for the Pipe horse he would have won comfortably. It’s well known that it’s a race that the Pipes target so it would no disgrace finishing 2^nd to Goulanes by a couple of lengths. This has proven stamina and has proven himself over various grounds. It’s forecast to rain at Ayr but that certainly won’t hinder this ones chances. He has to race from out of the handicap here but so do most of the field. The only slight doubt with this horse is that he has a couple of refusals to his name in recent starts so we might not even get a run for our money. If he does consent to race though, I think he can go well.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.30 Newbury – Brownsea Brink 3pts win @ 11/1 BetVictor I am quite strong on the chances of this horse tomorrow. He comes into this race on the back of a fine effort at Lingfield where Purcell narrowly beat him. That horse has come out since and bolted up off a 3lb higher mark. In recent years it has paid to come into this race with a recent run. The last few winners have all won this having raced at Doncaster on the first weekend of the flat season. Brownsea Brink has been very progressive since going handicapping winning 3 times over a mile. The latest of those wins came at Newmarket in a 17-runner handicap in September from a mark of 86. He found life tougher back at 7f at Ascot on his next start from a 5lb higher mark but I see no reason why he cant resume his progress now back at a mile on turf. This horse would probably prefer it to dry out a little more but I think he should handle the ground. He is drawn low but likes set the pace so I don’t see the draw being a problem. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a positive, and I see this one going very close.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 2.55 Newbury – Night of Thunder 2pts win @ 7/2 PaddyPower John Gosden has started this season in cracking form and his horse Kingman looks to have a massive chance but I am siding with the Hannon horse. Night of Thunder is 2 from 2 and has looked mightily impressive in both starts thus far. Both of those have runs have come over 6f but the step up in trip looks certain to suit. Night of Thunder has shown form on soft ground so any rain won’t inconvenience him whereas Kingman’s form has come on quick ground. The Hannon’s have won this 4 times since 2007 so it’s certainly a race they target with their better horses. If you look at the previous winners of this race from the yard they are Olympic Glory, Dick Turpin, Paco Boy and Major Cadeaux. Impossible to know whether Night of Thunder is as good as those mentioned but I will take a chance on him over the favourite. Again Ryan Moore is on board.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 2.20 Newbury - Al Thakhira 3pts win @ 10/3 PaddyPower Impossible to know how this lot have trained on but if Al Thakhira has strengthened up from last season then she will be very tough to beat in this. She won convincingly on debut at York in September last year and followed that with a very impressive win in the Rockfel at Newmarket. She absolutely tanked her way through the race and quickened up nicely to put the race to bed by over 3 lengths. She ran a poor race at the Breeders Cup but I am happy to forgive that run. Tomorrow the ground should suit her considering her 2 previous runs in the UK has come with some cut in the ground. This could be one of many exciting horses for Frankie to ride this year and I expect her to go close.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 5.00 Curragh - Versilia Gal 1pt EW @ 16/1 PaddyPower After a few sherries I have decided to NAP in a 20 runner handicap at the Curragh tomorrow. The horse I am putting my hard earned on is Versilia Gal. This horse doesn't exactly jump out at you when trying to sort this race out but I think she is one that could go well at a big price. She has 3 wins to her name on turf from 12 runs with 2 of them coming over 6f. Her last win came 3 runs ago from a mark of 80 at Sligo but tomorrow she races off 78. Conor Hoban is a talented young jockey and is the regular rider for this horse. She is returning from a break of 172 days but the only time she has returned from a break of over 100 days in the past she should have won when very unlucky over 6f at Cork last year.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread Rather than starting a new thread, I am going to re-start this one seeing as I have now finished Uni :) My latest stats check is below... think it is right. Bets 70 Winning Bets 12 Strike Rate 17% Staked 141 Returned 123.42 Profit -17.58pts

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 8.10 Ripon - Bear Behind 2pts win @ 8/1 BetVictor Watchable may prove very tough to beat here having run so well at Goodwood but I am going to take a chance on the hat-trick seeking Bear Behind. This horse has struggled to win in the past with just 1 win to his name before this season. He took advantage of a career low mark in a Thirsk seller a couple of runs ago but backed that up with a good performance in this grade at Haydock last time out. He races here of 93 so is still well handicapped if you look at his old form. He has gone close in this country from 99 and has regularly ran good races from marks in the 100's over in Meydan. The Dascombe horses have been running well in the last couple of weeks and I feel this one could have more to offer. This is tough from a 5lb higher mark but this horse proved how tough he is last time out and he could prove tough to pass.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 4.20 Nottingham - Etaab 2pts win @ 5/2 SkyBet This looks a match and I am siding with the Haggas horse. Etaab has already beaten Bragging at Lingfield and there is every chance he will beat him again. The Haggas horses are in unbelievable form with 7 of his last 10 horses winning with the other 3 finishing in the first 3. Both horses are open to huge improvement but at the prices I am with Etaab.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread Non-runner and a 2nd today pffft 4.30 Hamilton - Mandalay King 1pt EW @ 16/1 Ladbrokes This horse has 2 wins over CD to his name and several other good runs here. He is probably a better horse at Hamilton than he is anywhere else and he has proven in the past that he goes very well fresh. Marjorie Fife has her horses running well at the moment and she does have a very good record here with the few runners she does have. This horse is only 1lb higher than his latest winning mark if you take into account the jockeys claims. That win came 5 runs ago over CD. The quickening ground will be in his favour and he does drop to grades tomorrow for his reappearance. I think he has solid claims of making a place at the very least tomorrow and wouldn't be surprised if he popped up.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread

Non-runner and a 2nd today pffft 4.30 Hamilton - Mandalay King 1pt EW @ 16/1 Ladbrokes This horse has 2 wins over CD to his name and several other good runs here. He is probably a better horse at Hamilton than he is anywhere else and he has proven in the past that he goes very well fresh. Marjorie Fife has her horses running well at the moment and she does have a very good record here with the few runners she does have. This horse is only 1lb higher than his latest winning mark if you take into account the jockeys claims. That win came 5 runs ago over CD. The quickening ground will be in his favour and he does drop to grades tomorrow for his reappearance. I think he has solid claims of making a place at the very least tomorrow and wouldn't be surprised if he popped up.

Thats what we like to see... that brings me closer to the promised land of profit!

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 2.10 Epsom - Farraaj 2pts win @ 9/1 Coral There are plenty of these that met over this CD earlier this season with the Mark Johnston horse coming out on top. It wouldn't surprise me if he was to come out on top again and bounce back from a poor run at Ripon but I am going to take a chance with Farraaj. This horse won the Winter Derby last year and has since been running in group contests on turf. He was returned to handicap company last time out where he finished well behind Niceofyoutotellme at Newmarket after meeting trouble in running. The step back up in trip here will suit this horse and I expect him to be suited by the track. Roger Varian has a good strike rate at the track and he has had a few winners in the last 14 days. He has a big chance with one in the Derby so I expect him to have his horses absolutely spot on for this weekend.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 4.00 Epsom - Tarfasha 3pts win @ 11/2 BetVictor I am thinking the 20/1 winner trend will be broken tomorrow and I think it's worth concentrating on those at the head of the market. Looking at the draw stats for 1m 4f at Epsom, its a big disadvantage to be drawn in 1 or 2, which rules out the favourite Marvellous. It can be done form stall 2 but I don't really have enough confidence in JOB to get the job done. The two horses I am concentrating on in this race are the Hamdan Al Maktoum pair and I am just favouring the Dermot Weld trained Tarfasha. This horse won very comfortably on her reappearance at Naas and should come on plenty for that run. She won't have any problems should the ground soften up and Dermot Weld doesn't bring that many over to contest this race. Stamina for this horse is a slight doubt but I think she will get the trip.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 1.35 Epsom - Zurigha 2pts win @ 7/1 Bet365 Thistle Bird should go close in trying to win this race again but it looks very open and I am going to side with the Hannon horse. Zurigha won back to back listed races on the turf and all weather before disappointing last time out at Newmarket. She was pretty keen that day and was given a very easy time of it once she was beaten. If she can return to the form of her listed races then she would have a chance in this. The Hannon horses are running well at the moment and I don't see this slight extra distance being a problem for her. On her day she is very talented and she could certainly go close in this if on a going day.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread :cow

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 5.50 Bath - Walter De La Mare 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 I think this horse is very interesting returning to the flat here from a mark of just 45. When last seen on the flat (turf) this horse finished 4th over this CD on quick ground from a mark of 48. He has been in good form over jumps if you take his latest effort out but he looks well treated here especially with his jockey claiming 7. That puts him on a mark of 38 taking into account Jack Garrity's claim and I would be disappointed if he couldn't get involved. Jack Garrity is in good form at the minute and I am hopeful of a decent run from this horse.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread Quick update to show we are finally in profit on here. Zurigha was disappointing in the first today but Farraaj was very impressive in winning his race. I don't think many horses could have beaten the Oaks winner today but Tarfasha battled on well to hold on for 2nd place. Walter de La Mare ran well to finish 2nd in his race despite drifting out to 20/1. Yesterday Mandalay King was a game winner to continue a good run for his trainer Majorie Fife. I don't think I will be taking on Australia tomorrow and I fully expect him to bolt up. Bets 76 Winning Bets 15 Strike Rate 20% Staked 154 Returned 167.74 Profit +13.74pts

[cpo]

Re: CPO's Horse Racing Thread 3.15 Epsom - Free Zone 1pt EW @ 33/1 Boylesports Probably the hardest race of the day to work out but I am going to take a chance with Free Zone who is having is first start for Robert Cowell. This horse was previously trained by Bryan Smart where he consistently contested around listed level. He won a good handicap last year from a mark of 95 and runs in this from 100. The talented Robert Tart takes off a further 3lbs, which is a positive and I am hopeful this horse can get competitive. He has had a start this year at Chester for Bryan Smart where he was drawn 12 of 12 and stood no chance whatsoever over 5f. That should have put him spot on for this and I would expect Robert Cowell to get the best out of this horse. It may take him a few runs but I will take my chances tomorrow. Robert Cowell has his horses in absolutely blinding form, which is another positive. He has a pretty consistent record of 6 wins and a further 7 places from 29 runs so fingers crossed he can get involved.