Laying the draw......any advice for me guys?

[ian3012]

hi guys....i hope this is the right place for this....i started searching this site last year for threads/advice about 'laying the draw' on soccer matches.... but found none. so... armed with stats and my new betfair account... i stuck my toe in the water 5 weeks ago... trying my strategy with hard cash. my strategy/tactics of laying the draw goes with this reasoning.... based on premiership stats over the last 5 years....6-7% seems to be the average amount of 0-0 draws..... (if i don't get a goal in the game...i'm 'done for' before we start)..... therefore 93-94% of games have at least 1 goal. if a game is live on the telly.... and the draw odds are between 3 to 5ish... i then lay (....usually risking £500-£1000 to win £285) at the kick off. (obviously i'm only on when i can bet in running.) when the first goal occurs.... i then simply back the draw at higher odds than i layed....or let the bet run if the leading team is well dominant. yes, i have had my fingers burnt badly, twice..... arsenal v sheff utd cup replay and france v switzerland 3 nights ago...... both 0-0 at 90 mins.:o but since 20/2/05 they're the only 2 bets i've lost on using this system. (from 53 games i've bet on up to now.) i know thats past posting but it's like this.... if it's live on telly and the odds are right... i'm on...simple as. i'll start proofing if anyone is interested but i don't see the point.... if there's a goal i can profit and if it's 0-0 i lose. obviously my aim is to close the bet at some point in the game to profit on any result. my average win (including 2 big losses from above..lol) seems to be around £80 per game... but when i started this, i was occasionally placing insurance bets against the 0-0 .... which i've just about given up on now... seems to be a waste of profit.... i'm well up on my starting bank after last nite's 2 lower league games( i've never laughed so much at the conclusion of carlisle v halifax.... i had written off £780 :(until that goalkeeper bailed me out in the last minute..:rollin..thx m8....and took a nice profit. ) so here's the reason for my post....... is this all gonna end in tears? has anyone got any experience or tales that will make me quit this while i'm ahead? i'm starting to think i can average a couple of hundred a week at this during the footy season.... have i lost the plot?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Laying the draw......any advice for me guys? One problem you may occur, which you may have noticed already, is when the non-favourite scores first. This can result in the draw odds becoming shorter rather than longer. If you then get caught out by an equaliser before it driifts far enough out again you could end up in trouble.