BBOTD Sunday 2nd February

[Lodge]

3.30 - Musselburgh - Runswick Royal 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Runswick Royal is a horse who i felt was a bit of an eye-catcher after his most recent run. It came over this C&D last month in similar conditions as he is likely to encounter tomorrow. He’s a horse who has struggled this season because of his strong form in decent company at the end of last season, being allotted and opening mark 145 is never going to be easy to pick up races. He has continued to run creditably this season though and now down to a mark in the high 130’s, with conditions likely to suit, i fancy him to go well. He was well backed before to his last run, opening up at around 25/1 in an equally competitive race and going off a 17/2 shot. He looked like he was struggling very badly at one stage and even hit 1000 in running on Betfair, prior to staying on in testing conditions and looking like going close 2 out. He was beaten 7L back in 4th eventually, by a couple in this field who re-oppose on worse terms. He’s been dropped 1lb by the handicapper and continues to have the services of a decent 7lb claimer onboard, plus with this race being a 0-150 event he’ll get to carry less weight tomorrow than he did lto which may benefit him. There is the suggestion that a step up in trip may suit him but the fact his yard have persisted at 2m and that ground is likely to be testing suggest to me he is fully capable at this distance. He does have a little work to do on that recent form to beat Strongpoint and Local Hero but has 7 and a 1lb swing in the weights respectively and he wasn’t beaten that far. Hopefully he’ll travel abit better throughout his race tomorrow and go well at decent odds.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 1.00 Musselburgh - Capellanus EW @ 11/1 PaddyPower I'll take a chance on the Brian Ellison trained runner in this despite him running poorly last time out against some of these. I don't think that race was run to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace but I do think he will get that here with the bigger field. His 2 runs at the track so far over hurdles have been encouraging and I would expect him to be in the thick of things with Denis O'Regan taking over from a 7 lb claimer. Ground and trip are fine and Brian Ellison is the top trainer at the track and his horses must be respected.