Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle

[Aidymac]

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[Lodge]

Re: Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle All these posts in the Cheltenham threads are getting me excited! despite the disappointing news over the past couple of days. I'm the first to admit i am usually useless at ante post betting, i have had 2 ante post bets in the past couple of weeks for the festival so thought i'd share them on here: Triumph Hurdle - Broughton 1pt @ 14/1 Various I have backed Broughton in the Triumph hurdle, i made a selection in this race as i feel the market is yet to fully shape itself and therefore believe he could prove value on the day. This looks a very open race with the favouritism currently shared between Calipto and Le Rocher at around 6/1. Calipto beat a decent field on his UK debut and then followed up in very smart fashion in a weaker race, that debut win probably looks the strongest form on offer in my opinion and he is a worthy favourite. Le Rocher has also won his 2 UK runs, beating a decent yardstick in Kentucky Hyden on debut, and then winning the trial race in January by 10L, again beating Kentucky Hyden and a disappointing Vincenzo Moi. Both his starts have come on heavy ground, if it is very testing come the festival it would certainly enhance his chances, if the ground went the other way and dries out will he prove as good? From the Irish contingency, Guitar Pete looks their most likely contender, he's best priced at 10's and has won his 2 most recent starts in Ireland, beating some decent sorts like Ivan Grozny and Plinth last time. He was beaten over C&D (good ground) prior to that though by Royal Irish Hussar who has been poor since. Is this a hint that he may not prove as good at Cheltenham as he is in Ireland, or perhaps that he also prefers testing ground? Next in the market is Activial of Harry Fry, he chased home the favourite Calipto on his debut (beaten 3-4L) then won a grade 2 at Kempton. I think he'd certainly have to improve to win this on that form but i wouldn't rule him out, i'd still prefer Calipto though even at the prices, plus 17f at Cheltenham is a very different test than 2m at Kempton... My selection is Broughton, he's currently a 14/1 shot. The former Mark Johnston inmate looked very useful on the flat last season, if inconsistent at times, he managed 3 wins and was rated in the high 90's. He's since joined John Ferguson and ran in a very strong race on hurdling debut. He went down by the narrowest of margins to Fox Norton who is clearly very smart, the pair pulled 15L clear of Royal Irish Hussar that day. On a side note - Fox Norton was in this race but has been taken out - not sure of the reasoning? Anyway that looked a very pleasing debut in my opinion, particularly as his jumping was very sketchy at times. He then ran in the Scottish Triumph hurdle trial at Musselburgh which he won with the minimum of fuss. His jumping was slicker, he hit the front 2 out and O'Regan barely had to shake him up for him to extend on from Clarcam. A line of form through the Gordon Elliot trained runner puts him closely matched on form with Guitar Pete too. This race looks to be his target, you'll see in the quotes i've added below that Ferguson has considered going for the supreme with him if he feels the ground will be better. Personally i can't see that happening, and the fact he's considered for that race suggests how highly his trainer rates him. I think that i'm right in saying that John Ferguson has never had a winner at Cheltenham let alone at the Festival, despite his string of useful horses he doesn't have that many big race winners considering his strike rate, i'm sure a lot of this is down to the testing ground, which doesn't suit the flat bred types he usually has in his yard. I'm hoping the ground comes up good/ good to soft come the festival which will certainly suit a horse like Broughton. If it was heavy i would hold very little hope of him winning. A few quotes i've found regarding him: O'Regan after most recent run: "I was delighted with him. I wasn't sure if the trip would suit, because I think he would prefer a more galloping track. I think if he'd jumped a bit better up the straight at Doncaster he might have won, but he has come on a lot since then. "You can only beat what's in front of you and we have to hope he is going the right way. On better ground, he could be effective. He's got a great attitude and he could be one of the best four-year-olds we've got. I don't know where we go now. John Ferguson knows more about things like that than I do, so we'll have to see." Ferguson said: "He's a nice horse who has come along quietly through the winter. He'd been pleasing us at home and I was very pleased with him on Sunday. "His Doncaster run was obviously a very good performance for his hurdling debut and it was nice to see he learnt from it, as his jumping was much slicker at Musselburgh. "If he can continue to improve, hopefully he can be competitive at a higher level and Cheltenham would be the idea at the moment." "I don't think I need to run him again between now and Cheltenham and the Triumph Hurdle is his main target, but I've also put him in the Supreme," said Ferguson. "The thinking behind that is I think he will thrive on good ground and if come Cheltenham week it was good ground on the Tuesday and it looked like it was going to rain for the next three days, I might be tempted to let him run in the Supreme." I'm on at 14's with BetVictor NRFB so if he does pull out because of the ground i'll have a free bet. He's only 14's with firms not offering that now but i still think he's worth a bet at the odds. If the ground is reasonable and he lines up on the day i'd expect him to be a single figure price...