Flat Racing 5th Jan 2014

[chris34]

12.40 Southwell Pearl Noir has become a Southwell specialist, only just run out of it last time out in a classified event, will need to step up again back in handicap company. Drop back in trip shouldn’t prove a problem he has shown a lot of speed so is interesting but looks short enough. Major Muscari has proved extremely consistent recently finally winning last time out, 4lb higher mark demands more having had plenty of chances of marks around this. Lucky Mellor is one to bear in mind should he start to show some promise again, only his 3^rd run back from a lengthy break, but has dropped to a very dangerous mark 28lb below last CD winning mark! Upper Lambourn has become a little quirky these day but caught the eye last time out on tough terms over CD in a claimer also carrying 3lb overweight, he has a good record here and 2 from 4 over CD. 1pt e/w Upper Lambourn 10/1 bet365 2.10 Southwell Frontier Fighter has an obvious chance based on his penultimate run when running Dubai Hills close over 7f around here. Step up in trip no problem, but does need to bounce back from poorer run last time out on polytrack and also now has to race off a 5lb higher mark. First Post does act on the surface but was behind Greyfriar’s last time out over CD a 4lb turnaround will bring them closer but not likely to be enough. The Lock Master is the same as First Post and gets exactly the same turn around, he has now dropped to 2lb below last winning mark and appears to be working his way back to form and should find races this winter again. Greyfriarschorista looks the value against the favourite, he has an impressive strike rate around here of 3 from 6, winning last time out over CD under Shelley who has impressed me all season, a 3lb rise looks very fair, that was a career best last time out so will need to be at the top of his game again today but remains unexposed on this surface. 2pt win Greyfriarschorista 11/4 Seaniemac

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing 5th Jan 2014 12.40 - Lingfield - Imjin River 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I thought Imjin River should go close if backing up Tuesdays effort at Lingfield. He was only beaten a length or so there and was running on strongly from the back of the field. He was effectively running off an 8lb higher mark of 54 because of his jockey being overweight and him being out of the handicap so off a mark of 46 i think he could do some damage. He clearly acts on the surface with a record of 1-3-2 from his 3 runs here. The win came off a 19lb higher mark and the most recent 2nd came this year over C&D off a 9lb higher mark. He's clearly not very consistent having only won twice from 42 career runs but off a basement mark he must have a race in him. He has a decent young jockey booked in Louis Steward, he knows the horse having ridden him a few times and he had a 17% strike rate on the AW in 2013. 1.10 - Southwell - Grace Hull 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm going to give Grace Hull another chance after she disappointed me slightly last time out. I backed her last time out expecting the step up to 7f to do the trick but she didn't see her race out that well and shaped like a non stayer over that trip. Tomorrow she returns to the fibresand over 6f and she'll hopefully show an improved performance because of that. In her 2 previous runs she'd finished a neck 2nd at Wolverhampton and wasn't beaten far over tomorrows C&D despite having to travel wide and come from a fair way back. She still looks on a fair mark of 57, 1lb higher than when 2nd her on her penultimate start. She has Billy Cray aboard claiming 3lb and he has twice been placed when riding her. ATR draw check also suggest she could be well drawn with high numbers beneficial over this distance at the course, particularly recently. It does look a competitive race for the grade, and theres plenty of C&D form on offer but at the prices i'll stick wit Grace Hull.