Poisson. Dixon Coles approach

[Porcupine]

Hello to all. I am new to the community, and it is actually my very first post on this forum. I am a mathematician myself, and recently had started to get into football modeling. I was playing around with Betfair for years now, but just recently had concentrated on it full time. I am fascinated by the scope on how deep math could be applied at Betfair markets. When researching football modeling I had stumbled upon a highly regarded Dixon, Coles (1997) paper "Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market" which applies time factor and very important correlation factor for low scoring games to Poisson regression. It took me some time in figuring out how to translate those formulas to real numbers that will tell me what is the chance of a score x-y happening in a game N. I did it at the end, and now have a system that can generate a probability of all possible scores (from which a lot of other probabilities such as 1X2, Over\Under and so on, can be generated) for all major leagues. Those Poisson values are now play a critical role in my overall strategy, that forecasts a return of 5-7% (only time will tell a real value). When working on it, I was looking for resources that will provide me concrete help in getting those values, with little luck. And that is when I had an idea of building a subscription based website that will provide detailed and scientifically backed probabilities (for 3 Correct Score markets, Match Odds and Over\Under markets) for every match of every major football league. It can be used either as part of your strategy, or as an extra confirmation check. There are numerous uses for such data. I realize that not all punters have an in-depth math knowledge that is required for getting those values, and that is why I think such a website would be very helpful for many. Why I am writing this? Well, since most of my research and development I did on my own, with no contact to "outside" world (i.e the community), I am not sure if such a service would be useful and needed. Not sure if such a service already exists (which will mean that my Google skills aren't as great as I thought). Not sure, on maybe everybody and thier uncle had already figured it out and successfully using Dixon Coles Poisson, and I am here playing an old record. What are your thoughts?

[methuselah]

Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Explain Dixon Coles Poisson. Have no idea what it says. I come across the word Poisson frequently as a massage for Soccer stats but have no idea of its effectiveness. Perhaps you could give us some of your picks.? I noted the words " subscription based " .