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About Porcupine

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/21/1986
  1. Re: Fooball bet optimizer for Betfair Holy moly, I haven't realized how long the post came out to be... I'll have to learn some mastery of briefness :)
  2. Hi forum. Not a big contributor, but a big reader of this forum, and today I want to share the story of my love for sports and math, and what came out of that. I am a mathematician myself, with degree in Combinatorics & Optimization, and at the same time a big football fan. That led me to discover and start to admire Betfair, a sports exchange that most punters already know. With time, I've realized the huge potential that lays behind it, where simply with your smarts you can make money. I've started to play around with different mathematical models that I've build for horseracing and foot
  3. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Why would you want to beat bookies when you have such a great invention as Betfair? All bookies cripple your abilities on what can you do, and how can you bet to the point that it is almost impossible to make long-term profit with them. Betfair on the other hand is a level field for everyone involved, and the game is simple - the smartest takes the money of the dumbest (and pays 5% commission on it :)), that is why information gives you advantage, and Poisson is a great piece of information that can be used against those that are less smart in order for you
  4. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Sorry. Misread your message.
  5. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Yes, I use their Data Archive service for raw historical data. And I've seen their prediction services, and I bet that they use Poisson in some shape or form. The main difference is that they don't provide Correct Score odds (at least not in easily accessible form). Key element in my own strategy, and the only data you actually need (if looking for Poisson probabilities), since with that you can easily calculate all O\U, 1x2 and other markets. And I am not sure which variation of Poisson(if any at all) they use.
  6. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach It does seem like that on a surface, but in the core is not true. Yes, you do multiplication of two Poisson distributions, but a key input of every Poisson is goal expectancy. And goal expectancy of a home team = attack rate of home team * defense rate of away team * home field advantage And goal expectancy of away team = attack rate of away team * defense rate of home team. From that, we clearly see that Poisson distributions are not independent since we use data of both teams in every Poisson. That is, goal expectancy of Wigan against Stoke will be hi
  7. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Just an observation. Converted my O/U 2.5 probabilities for Inter - Parma match into odds and got the following Over 2.5 goals = 55.226% = 1/0.55226 = 1.81 Under 2.5 golas = 44.774% = 1/0.44774 = 2.23 Current Betfair odds: Over 2.5 goals = 1.81 Under 2.5 golas = 2.22 A good indication on how accurate the properly calculated Poisson can be.
  8. Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Methuselah, froment, thanks for your reply. In short. Poisson distribution provides a probability that a give score will happen. Poisson function requires an input of goal expectancy for every team involved in a game. Goal expectancy is calculated using attack and defense rate of each team and home field advantage factor. There are different approaches in calculating those values, Dixon Coles approach being the one that is praised the most for its efficiency. Simple Poisson distribution is known for incorrectly calculating probabilities for low scores (0-0
  9. Hello to all. I am new to the community, and it is actually my very first post on this forum. I am a mathematician myself, and recently had started to get into football modeling. I was playing around with Betfair for years now, but just recently had concentrated on it full time. I am fascinated by the scope on how deep math could be applied at Betfair markets. When researching football modeling I had stumbled upon a highly regarded Dixon, Coles (1997) paper "Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market" which applies time factor and very important co
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