Football - Risk adjusted return method

[dalkent]

I’ve been running a football thread for a while now and found that I am struggling to get bets on some of the leagues using the criteria i chose. I have decided to try a risk adjusted return approach and incorporate Asian Handicap ratings also. To that effect I have upgraded the models to produce handicap probabilities and therefore calculated value. Unfortunately I cannot back score the model as I don’t have history of Asian handicap odds. Therefore I am going to run a test on here independent of my normal thread and approach. Once I have done 100 bets (or the bank has depleted too much) I will decide whether to pursue it and upload it to the website. Here are the my first weekends predictions. I will have a starting bank of £100 and bet 3% per bet with bank updates every £20 (i.e. will stick with £3 bets unless above or below 120 and 80) :hope League 1 Carlisle to win £3 at 3.12 Colchester +0 (DNB) £3 2.86 Leyton Orient +0.5 £3 at 1.775 Tranmere +0.5 £3 at 1.685 League 2 Dag+Red +1 £3 at 1.24 Torquay +0.5 £3 at 1.847 York +0 (DNB) £3 at 1.794

[dalkent]

Re: Football - Risk adjusted return method Some more for tonight. Last week was quite poor Bradford -1 £3 at 2.64 Bristol Rvs. +.5 £3 at 1.925 Oxford -0.5 £3 at 2.19 Carlisle -1 £3 at 3.2 Colchester+1.5 £3 at 1.2 Gillingham+1.5 £3 at 1.14 Port Vale +.25 £3 at 1.862 Shrewsbury w 3 at 2.8 Torquay w £3 at 2.88 Accrington H+.25 £3 at 2.19