Half time over / under system

[uknowsit]

Been working on a way to create a statistical system that exploits value in markets that the bookies don’t put enough research into. I have specifically been looking at half time data and believe there is money to be made, and value to be had. Since the end of September I started paper trading a system covering teams playing in the summer leagues (Sweden, Finland, Norway etc) which showed good profits (around 10% yield over 120 games). Now since the end of October I start focusing on UK domestic games (England and Scotland league matches) – and again, the yield is holding up quite well. I have taken all my odds from Skybet – and am fully aware that by hopping across different bookies I can achieve much better odds, but until Christmas time (where I consider this still under test) I will use just sky bet odds for consistency – and if I can make profits with them, then the system has great potential to increase profits by finding better odds. I am backing either over / under 1.5 half time goals in games where I deem value (after applying statistical calculations). History shows that backing unders is FAR more profitable than overs – (in fact Overs is around break even). But as previously mentioned, I am using odds from Sky bet only, so can expect around a 10% uplift by hunting out better odds. So if unders is at break even, and unders at 25%+ yield with Sky bet odds – image the potential by hunting out best odds? Over selections are also far more common than unders (at a ratio of around 3:1) I am actually backing each game at flat stakes of £10. I am still documenting profitability using what is called “Ansell staking”. As this system relies on picks where there is deemed value, I am also curious to apply a staking system that puts a greater stake on a game with implied higher value, than one with less value (but still enough to qualify it as a selection). I believe this system is not league specific, but for the purpose of this thread I will use only English and Scottish leagues (as this is the leagues most members are familiar with). I will post stakes that I am using (flat stakes) and also the ansell stakes and document the results until around Christmas time where I will analyse the system. I can then consider dropping the overs selections (depending on performance), adding more leagues, using either flat stakes or ansell stakes, and of course using more bookmakers. So without further adieu, 4 picks for tonight Date Home Away Ov / Un Odds Stake Ans Stake 12/11/2013 Halifax Hyde Over 2.38 £10.00 £18.39 12/11/2013 Wrexham Gateshead Over 2.75 £10.00 £12.56 12/11/2013 Forest Green Nuneaton Over 2.5 £10.00 £10.62 12/11/2013 Ayr Stranraer Over 2.38 £10.00 £6.90

[Grex]

Re: Half time over / under system Good luck with this, Uknowsit. As most of my previous systems have been based on "value", I will be interested to see how the Ansell Staking Plan performs with your system :ok By the way, I think you need to look again at how you transfer text from Excel/Word. A straight copy-and paste doesn't always work - you may need to use an image hosting site, and then paste the URL in your post ;)