Criteria by Category: +78pts, +66%Y (backtested leagues), +14pts, +34%Y (untested)

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

Nice system.

Thanks :ok

Keep up the good work I will free up some money to play along with you :cheers

Please do bear in mind that the ridiculously high yield (on a tiny sample of bets) is bound to nosedive. I’m quietly optimistic that the strategy can make a long term profit, but it will need to perform for a while yet to induce full confidence. The one thing I am certain about is that there won’t be long-term profits at magic level yields. There is a pretty good volume of bets, so a decent, solid edge will be tasty enough.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

Just a question do you do research on injuries and do you take them into account or do you purely recommend a game on statistical data?

It's an automated system, so no account is made for injuries, except for the important fact that missing players will influence the odds and therefore the category into which a match falls. As I said to Matthew earlier, I'm not going to reveal the fine grain details, but I will note that you’ve touched on a point relevant to how categorisation helps the strategy. The stats I use are straightforward but wide ranging, and include a few (very simple) formulae to represent recent, medium and long-term form; scoring and defending proficiencies; previous match-ups between the teams; and a number of comparative stats: both between the teams and also within an individual team's data, such as the degree of disparity between its home and away performance, it's ranking compared to earlier in the season (or the previous season) and its tendency for consistency or inconsistency. In a category where the odds look strange, a bet isn't signalled simply because one team's stats across the board look attractive for its odds. The stats have to fulfill a historically profitable profile for the category. Unusual odds will put a game in a red flag classification, and it will either be a no-bet game, or very specific stats criteria will be used to identify a bet.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield AWAY BETS ENG3 Crawley 7pts @ 2.51 Pinnacle ENG3 Shrewsbury 4pts @ 3.71 Pinnacle ENG3 Coventry 5pts @ 2.62 Marathon ENG4 Burton 5pts @ 2.75 Pinnacle ENG4 Rochdale 7pts @ 2.65 Pinnacle ENG5 Salisbury 5pts @ 3.40 SBO ENG5 Hereford 5pts @ 3.00 William Hill ENG5 Nuneaton 7pts @ 3.29 5dimes ENG5 Hyde 3pts @ 5.21 Pinnacle

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield No upcoming Home bets, just the above Awayathon.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield AWAY BETS (UNTESTED LEAGUES) BRA Atletico-MG 5pts @ 3.4 Bet365

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield No home bets in Brazil either... Fluminense is borderline (which tempted me for tiny stakes as a couple of borderliners won in England), but no.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield I'll update main leagues after Coventry play. But basically 8pts profit for that lot if they lose, and +21pts if the home fans leave the stadium unhappy.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

I'll update main leagues after Coventry play. But basically 8pts profit for that lot if they lose' date=' and +21pts if the home fans leave the stadium unhappy.[/quote'] I'm not usually one for sweating on live scores, but I noticed Coventry were up 2-0 early. Then 3-2 deep into extra time. And they give away a penalty goal in the dying moments? Ouch.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield AWAY BETS: RESULTS ENG3 Crawley 7pts @ 2.56 Pinnacle (1-1) -7 ENG3 Shrewsbury 4pts @ 3.61 Pinnacle (3-1) -4 ENG3 Coventry 5pts @ 2.62 Marathon (3-3) -5 ENG4 Burton 5pts @ 2.75 Pinnacle (2-0) -5 ENG4 Rochdale 7pts @ 2.65 Pinnacle (1-2) +11.55 ENG5 Salisbury 5pts @ 3.40 SBO (3-2) -5 ENG5 Hereford 5pts @ 3.00 William Hill (0-3) +10 ENG5 Nuneaton 7pts @ 3.29 5dimes (1-2) +16.03 ENG5 Hyde 3pts @ 5.21 Pinnacle (3-2) -3 O: 48, P/L: +8.58

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield AWAY BETS (UNTESTED LEAGUES): RESULTS BRA Atletico-MG 5pts @ 3.4 Bet365 (2-0) -5 O: 5, P/L -5

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield TOTALS (TESTED LEAGUES) Home Bets (Tested) O: 52, P/L: 35.75, Y: +68.75% Away Bets (Tested) O: 65.5, P/L: 42.76, Y: +65.28% Tested Leagues Home and Away O: 117.5, P/L: +78.51, Y: +66.82% TOTALS (UNTESTED LEAGUES) Home Bets (untested) O: 38, P/L: +19.89, Y: +52.34% Away Bets (untested) O: 5, P/L -5, Y: -100% Home and Away Bets (untested) O: 43, P/L +14.89, Y: +34.63%

[mister magoo]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield Great results mate..Is there any chance of you posting your selections a little earlier so we in Australia might be able to get on....cheers...keep up the good work...

[anaconda69]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield Hi, I wouldn't follow yet until more losers level it out but if I was to do you have any idea how long you'll post and if you are considering selling the system picks in future instead as many good system providers other than Grex and jtw do?

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

Great results mate..Is there any chance of you posting your selections a little earlier so we in Australia might be able to get on....cheers...keep up the good work...

Only if you promise to buy yourself a pair of glasses with the profits!

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

Hi' date=' I wouldn't follow yet until more losers level it out[/quote'] Neither would I. :lol Well, I'm following it for fun stakes so far. No promises, but every chance of continuing indefinitely. No, that's not on the agenda.

[robotzel78]

Re: Criteria by Category: +78pts, +66%Y (backtested leagues), +14pts, +34%Y (untested Great job here, good luck with your future bets!

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield

No promises, but every chance of continuing indefinitely.

Very glad now I wrote the first two words. Unfortunately have to put this thread on hold for the moment. Thanks to everyone who has shown an interest. I hope to it resurrect it soon.