Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Hello, this is the first thread I’ve created, and indeed my first forum post. Here I will be testing a 1x2 soccer strategy which classifies games according to a few basic circumstances and then applies a relevant set of criteria. For instance, a clash between two mid-table teams where the home team is strong favourite would be a different category to a clash where the home team is at the bottom of the table and the away team at the top. For each category there is a set of criteria that needs to be fulfilled to signal a home team bet, and a different set that needs to be fulfilled for an away bet. My research has not found any consistently profitable scenarios for backing draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy A little more info: The approach has been back-tested across ten years of data for all the English divisions, as well as the Scottish Premier, Bundesliga, Series A, Ligue 1 and Spanish Primera. Live testing was conducted on the last three months of last season and since week seven of each league this season (early season games are ignored). So far results have been very close to (in fact slightly above) back-tested yields: ~12% for home teams and ~15% for away teams. I wouldn't expect these returns to hold up in the long run, but even half of those figures would be decent. Staking is calculated by dividing a strength-of-bet rating (whether the bet easily fulfills the criteria or scrapes in) divided by the available odds. The criteria for home bets and away bets are qualitatively different, so I will record the results separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy HOME BETS GER Schalke 10pts @ 1.67 William Hill ENG2 Middlesbrough 7pts @ 2.63 Boyle FRA Bastia 9pts @ 2.44 Marathon ESP Ath Bilbao 11pts @ 1.60 Interwetten ITA Genoa 8pts @ 2.30 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy HOME BETS (as above, hopefully without the random space formatting) GER Schalke 10pts @ 1.67 William Hill ENG2 Middlesbrough 7pts @ 2.63 Boyle FRA Bastia 9pts @ 2.44 Marathon ESP Ath Bilbao 11pts @ 1.60 Interwetten ITA Genoa 8pts @ 2.30 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy AWAY BETS ENG2 Ipswich 5pts @ 3.30 5dimes SCO Hearts 2pts @ 8.0 BetVictor FRA Sochaux 2pts @ 8.40 Marathon ITA Sampdoria 1.5pts @ 10.16 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy Does the system make selections irrespective of the available price? e.g. if the price for a home win was say 1.01, but it fit the criteria, would you still make the bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy Does the system make selections irrespective of the available price? e.g. if the price for a home win was say 1.01' date=' but it fit the criteria, would you still make the bet?[/quote'] Thanks for an excellent question that highlights a key difference between this strategy and a traditional handicapping approach. The criteria aren't used to predict 1x2 probabilities. The available odds are part of the classification process and then a bet is signalled if the home or away team meet the criteria. So there are classifications for games with extremely low priced favourites (further sorted by some other factors such as table position and recent results). If a 1.01 team fulfills the criteria for the appropriate category it will be a bet, based on the fact that teams with its stats under similar circumstances have been historically profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy I have recently uncovered some data sources for a few more leagues and I'm going to begin testing them as well. I'll keep these results separate as there has been no testing at all of these leagues until now. HOME BETS (UNTESTED LEAGUES) NED Vitesse 7pts @ 1.53 Coral BRA Cruzeiro 9pts @ 1.62 B365 BRA Internacional 6pts @ 2.1 Interwetten BRA Ponte Preta 8pts @ 2.4 Interwetten BRA Atletico PR 8pts @ 2.5 Marathon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy No upcoming Away Bets for untested leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy HOME BETS: RESULTS GER Schalke 10pts @ 1.67 William Hill (3-1) +6.7 ENG2 Middlesbrough 7pts @ 2.63 Boyle (2-2) -7 FRA Bastia 9pts @ 2.44 Marathon (1-0) +12.96 ESP Ath Bilbao 11pts @ 1.60 Interwetten (2-1) +6.6 ITA Genoa 8pts @ 2.30 William Hill (2-0) +10.4 Outlay: 45, P/L: +29.66, Y: +65.91% A handsome start. I’ll update Away bets after Sampdoria game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy I'm curious but cautious about the Brazil games. It's my first foray into a South American league and with no back testing to rely on, I really have no idea whether the same approach can be applied. I'm also a little weary about the consistency across data sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy AWAY BETS: RESULTS ENG2 Ipswich 5pts @ 3.30 5dimes (2-3) +11.5 SCO Hearts 2pts @ 8.0 BetVictor (1-3) +14 FRA Sochaux 2pts @ 8.40 Marathon (2-1) -2 ITA Sampdoria 1.5pts @ 10.16 Pinnacle (2-1) -1.5 Outlay: 10.5, P/L: +22, Y: +210% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy HOME (UNTESTED LEAGUES): RESULTS NED Vitesse 7pts @ 1.53 Coral (3-1) +3.71 BRA Cruzeiro 9pts @ 1.62 B365 (3-0) +5.58 BRA Internacional 6pts @ 2.1 Interwetten (2-1) +6.6 BRA Ponte Preta 8pts @ 2.4 Interwetten (0-3) -8 BRA Atletico PR 8pts @ 2.5 Marathon (3-0) +12 Outlay: 38, P/L: +19.89, Y: +52.34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy TOTALS Principal Leagues Home and Away Outlay: 55.5, P/L: +51.66, Y: +93.09% All Bets Outlay: 93.5, P/L: +71.55, Y: +76.52% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy Great start. Keep it up. Without giving away the crown jewels, what sort of differences do you apply to the different category of match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy Great start. Keep it up. Without giving away the crown jewels' date=' what sort of differences do you apply to the different category of match?[/quote'] Thanks. I'm very proud of the strategy for putting its best foot forward on its public debut. It will be impossible to keep up those percentages, but it's nice to get a jump start on variance. The crown jewels are heavily guarded, but I'll just say that the approach looks for stats that fall above or below expected thresholds for a particular category. Some of these suggest a team might be undervalued by the market or vice versa. The key stats for home bets are slightly different to those for away bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Great start Nocturnus :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Thanks jtw. It's nice to get ahead early, though the yield must inevitably tumble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield HOME BETS ENG5 Forest Green 7pts @ 1.87 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield AWAY BETS ENG5 Lincoln 7pts @ 2.74 5dimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Yet again Great results!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield :ok well played Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Thanks soda and curly. Nice to find that after avoiding debut stage fright the system didn't fall for second time syndrome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield HOME BETS: RESULTS ENG5 Forest Green 7pts @ 1.87 Pinnacle (1-0) +6.09 Outlay: 7, P/L: +6.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield AWAY BETS: RESULTS ENG5 Lincoln 7pts @ 2.74 5dimes (0-1) +12.18 Outlay: 7, P/L: +12.18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield TOTALS Tested Leagues Home and Away Outlay: 69.5, P/L: +69.93, Y: +100.6% All Leagues Outlay: 107.5, P/L: +89.82,Y: +83.55% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Nice selection method :ok Looks like the crown jewels are well worth guarding - well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: 76% Yield Nice selection method :ok Cheers, anon. the crown jewels are well worth guarding. Indeed, as when defending a free kick in a wall! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocturnus Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield No bets in the upcoming games in Brazil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield Nice system. Just a question do you do research on injuries and do you take them into account or do you purely recommend a game on statistical data? Keep up the good work I will free up some money to play along with you :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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