Criteria by Category: +78pts, +66%Y (backtested leagues), +14pts, +34%Y (untested)

[Nocturnus]

Hello, this is the first thread I’ve created, and indeed my first forum post. Here I will be testing a 1x2 soccer strategy which classifies games according to a few basic circumstances and then applies a relevant set of criteria. For instance, a clash between two mid-table teams where the home team is strong favourite would be a different category to a clash where the home team is at the bottom of the table and the away team at the top. For each category there is a set of criteria that needs to be fulfilled to signal a home team bet, and a different set that needs to be fulfilled for an away bet. My research has not found any consistently profitable scenarios for backing draws.

[Nocturnus]

Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy A little more info: The approach has been back-tested across ten years of data for all the English divisions, as well as the Scottish Premier, Bundesliga, Series A, Ligue 1 and Spanish Primera. Live testing was conducted on the last three months of last season and since week seven of each league this season (early season games are ignored). So far results have been very close to (in fact slightly above) back-tested yields: ~12% for home teams and ~15% for away teams. I wouldn't expect these returns to hold up in the long run, but even half of those figures would be decent. Staking is calculated by dividing a strength-of-bet rating (whether the bet easily fulfills the criteria or scrapes in) divided by the available odds. The criteria for home bets and away bets are qualitatively different, so I will record the results separately.