Anyone know how tennis set odds calculated?

[CJ Mars]

Not sure if this is the right home for this. Please feel to move mods. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I have been doing some experimenting with set betting and was wondering if anyone knew exactly how the odds were calculated?<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

I assumed that the odds are related to the win odds so I took a 2 year sample of data from Joe's tennis data site for various odds ranges (i.e 1.10 to 1.2, 1.2 to 1.3) and then compared the odds to the actual set results. There are 4 possible results in a 3 set tennis match that plays to a conclusion.

Home Player 2-0

Home Player 2-1

Away Player 2-0

Away Player 2-1

I compared the %'s for the results for each band and constructed a model for various odds ranges. I then compared this to Betfair and bookies prices. It seems to hold up pretty well on average so I assume that I am somewhat on the right track.

I then got to thinking that this method assumes that all tennis players are somewhat average in their set winning tendencies. This might not necessarily be the case. I am attempting to break down the records of the top 100 players over the last two years, compare them to their odds and see are there any players who tend to either win their matches 2-0 more than their odds would suggest or else those who get involved in 2-1 slugfests more than their odds would again suggest. If there are players who tend to fall outisde the "normal" parameters maybe there's a bit of value about?

Anyone have any ideas whether this might be a profitable strategy or indeed have tries something similar in the past?

[edtkh]

Re: Anyone know how tennis set odds calculated? Interesting study you've done there, but I wouldn't go along with the system plainly on stats simply because I think the form and mental state of mind of a player is especially vital in set bettings. Take Federer for instance - this time last year (when he was still trying to establish a foothold on the men's game), it's fair to say he'd have swept almost everything 2-0. This year, however, has seen a change to that trend with him getting more 2-1's than his ability should merit (he had a run of 4 2-1's out of 5 matches during that run which saw him drop 2 sets to Ljubicic in to back-to-back finals about a month ago). The other thing that may not be accounted for by the stats is the strength of one's opponent. While I don't compile any hard figures myself, I have made more profits from going on set bettings only when I get a good 'feel' for it...