Flat Racing - Tuesday 22nd October

[robertob]

18.40 Kempton: Lutine Bell @ 11/1 VC - 2pts win Lutine Bell was really unlucky not to finish much closer than what the form reads the last time at Kempton. He travelled like a dream, still on the bridle approaching the 2f marker but didn't get the in-running luck as gaps weren't really opening for him. He was eased down and saved for another day but gave the impression he could be ready to strike soon, now down to a really good mark. He's yet to win at Kempton in five starts but was twice placed of much higher marks and he clearly is a very good All-Weather horse, even though he didn't get his head in front for quite a long time. If things go well for him tomorrow then he'll have a big chance and therefore is overpriced in my mind. 19.10 Kempton: Konzert @ 16/1 VC - 1pt win Konzert was backed like mad a couple of days ago at Wolverhampton, opening at 25/1 and starting at 7/1 but then didn't quite get the run of the race having to travel very wide from 4f out while making a big move from that point onwards but having to turn widest of all for home and losing vital ground. The jockey soon realized entering the home straight that the horse wouldn't catch the leaders and eased him down, as it was pointless to beat the shit out of the horse only to finish fifth or something. He can race off the same mark tomorrow, and I would like to think Kempton could be a track that suits him much better. He looks a horse perfectly suited to the All-Weather surface anyway and he is still open the improvement, being generally lightly raced. While Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, he looked then very much improved on his All-Weather debut, when showing dramatic improvement for the new surface. That day he was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting there is more to come on this surface and that he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. He couldn't back up this performance the next time, switching back to turf, when he finished a disappointing last, but ignoring that performance, I can see a horse with a massive debut performance on the All-Weather and an unlucky second run on that surface. Considering he is in the same form, not getting a hard race three days ago, he should be competitive off a low weight tomorrow.

[Lodge]

4.30 - Lingfield - Howyadoingnotsobad EW @ 40/1 Betvictor I'm slightly confused as to why this one can be a 40/1. Yes, you could make a case that he is in the grip of the handicapper having not even been placed off a mark this high in a handicap before but I just can't ignore such a good record over 5f on the polytrack. His record under these conditions reads: 415461115 and to be honest he may not be badly handicapped as the latest 5th where he was beaten by less than 2 lengths was his seasonal return off a mark of 78. Today he races off a mark of 75, is in a class 5 handicap for the first time since his last win and also has a 7lb claimer aboard to ease his burden of top weight. He'd been running really creditably on turf up until lto but that was off the back of a 7 week absence to he'll be sharper today, he's drawn well and at a huge price he's worth a small ew interest.