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Rasssah's Behavioral Betting Model.


Rasssah

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After being a long time reader of the PL-forum I've decided to start contributing with selections based on a model that I have developed. Since I've spent a lot of work designing and testing it I won't reveal too much of the specifics of the model. It is however an attempt to identify behavioral biases and using these to my advantage. The idea behind the model shares some elements with the brilliant work of zbrochou. I will elaborate further later. First selection will be posted below.

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Re: Rasssah's Behavioral Betting Model. I am not allowed to edit yet so here is the first post in longer version: After being a long time reader of the PL-forum I've decided to start contributing with selections based on a model that I have developed. Since I've spent a lot of work designing and testing it I won't reveal too much of the specifics of the model, but I will explain the basic concept below. The model is based on several biases that I've discovered which punters systematically fail to take into account when betting. The idea behind the model shares some elements with the brilliant work of zbrochu, namely the attempt to go beyond the basic statistics and search for teams that may be in better form than their latests results show. There are also elements of MPLouis and JohnPR's thoughts about distance as a factor and some of the known biases are included such as the favourite-longshot bias. This is neither an underdog or a favourite strategy, though most of the selections will be favoring teams valued at slightly higher than average odds. The staking strategy will be fixed risk/winnings in order to minimize the variance. This means that for a bet worth 3 units, a stake of 3 units will be used for odds at 2.00 and below, if the odds are higher, the stake will be 3/(odds-1). I'll be happy to describe this in greater detail later. Starting bank will be 100 units. 1 unit = 1 percent of bank. Maximum bet 4 units, most bets will be valued at between 1-3 units based on how much of an edge I think there is. Stake for the bet above: 1.90 units ( 2 units/ (2.05-1) )

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Re: Rasssah's Behavioral Betting Model. Thanks for your comment dalkent. Will answer your questions later. Posting one selection for tonight: Bet 1 lost - 1.90 units, New balance 98.10 units Bet 2 Peterboro - Sheffield United 2 0.75 units bet at odds of 5.00 (Bet365)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Rasssah's Behavioral Betting Model. Bet 2 Lost - 0.75 units, new balance 97.35 units The bets for this weekend: Bet 3 Fulham - Man Utd 1X (double chance), 0,63 units, odds 2.64 @ Betfair Bet 4 Bournemoth - Bolton 1, 1.33 units, odds 2.5 @ Bet365 Bet 5 Sheffield W - Reading 1, 1.14 units, odds 2.75 @ Bet365 Bet 6 Coventry - Notts Co 2, 0.36 units, odds 6.50 @ Bet 365

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Re: Rasssah's Behavioral Betting Model. Bet 3 Lost -0,63 units Bet 4 Lost - 1,33 units Bet 5 Won + 2 units Bet 6 Lost - 0,36 units Total - 0.32 units, New balance 97.03 units Bets for this weekend: Bet 7 Wolfsburg - Dortmund 1X, 0.8 units, odds 2.25 @Bet365 Bet 8 Chrystal P - Everton 1X 1.48 units, odds 2.35 @ Betfair (without commision) Bet 9 Leicester - Nottingham 2 0.71 units, odds 3.75 @ Bet 365 Bet 10 Barnsley - Doncaster 2, 0.32 units, odds 4.20 @ Bet 365 Bet 11 Mainz - Frankfurt 2, 0.34 units, odds 2.88 @ Bet 365 Bet 12 Yeovil - Wigan 1X, 1 unit, odds 1.88 @ Bet365 Bet 13 Betis - Barcelona 1 (AH +1.5), 2.67 units, odds 2.12 @ Betfair (adj.)

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