Does distance matter? A one year summary.

[JohnPR]

I have been posting my selections on and off for the past year based on distance adjusted Bayesian inferences. Here is a summary of my results fr the past year please feel free to comment or give advice as to what I should do next. These bets were placed with Pinnacle at an average overound of about 2.5%. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Home[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, width: 89]Away[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, width: 89]Total[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, width: 89]Home bets[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, width: 89]Away bets[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, width: 89]Total bets[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25](European season leagues)[/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]England Premier[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-14.47[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.31[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-14.16[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]166[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]124[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]290[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]England Championship[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]14.02[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]25.02[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39.04[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]190[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]250[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]440[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]England Division 1[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-20.51 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]16.91[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-3.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]218[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]248[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]466[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]England Division 2[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-18.64[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]40.4[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]21.76[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]226[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]239[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]465[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]England Conference[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]18.71[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]18.97[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]37.68[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]188[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]257[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]445[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]France Ligue 1[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-11.8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]10.69[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-1.11 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]165[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]129[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]294[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]France Ligue 2[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-26.7[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-15.9 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-42.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]151[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]111[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]262[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-3.96[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-0.65[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-4.61[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]109[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]163[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]272[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Germany Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-5.14[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-24[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-29.14[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]119[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]115[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]234[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Italy Serie A[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-28.64[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-6.94[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-35.58[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]165[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]134[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]299[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Italy Serie B[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-6.23[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]13.51[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]7.28[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]120[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]127[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]247[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Netherlands Eredivisie[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]18.14[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-25.43 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-7.29[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]122[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]126[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]248[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Netherlands Eerst Divisie[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-9.96 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]5.47[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-4.49 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]118[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]114[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]232[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Spain Primera[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-7.36[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-5.27 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-12.63[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]24[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]20[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Spain Segunda[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]4.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.81[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]14.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]26[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]11[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Sub total[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-97.56[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]62.91[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-34.65 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]2107[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]2168[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]4275[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25](Off season leagues)[/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Brazil Serie A[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-12.54 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]16.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]4.26[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]144[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]117[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]261[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Brazil Serie B[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]13.14[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]13.78[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]26.92[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]85[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]127[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]212[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Finland Veikkausliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-11.85 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-17.38[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-29.23[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]75[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]114[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Finland Ykkonen[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-0.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-0.06[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-1.05[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Ireland Premier[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]2.51[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-6.12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-3.61[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]29[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]56[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Ireland Division 1[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]14.15[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-11.09[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.06[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]25[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]21[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Japan J League[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]23.98[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]5.65[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]29.63[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]125[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]147[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]272[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Japan J2 League[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.45[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]23.14[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]32.59[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]77[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]110[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]187[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Sweden Allsvenskan[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-9.8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-9.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-19.3[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]90[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]122[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]212[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Sweden Superettan[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]16.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]18.28[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]113[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]101[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]214[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]USA MLS[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.87[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-10.67 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-0.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]165[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]105[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]270[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Sub Total[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39.39[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]21.35[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]60.74[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]967[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]984[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1951[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]Total[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-58.16 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]84.25[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]26.09[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]3074[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]3152[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]6226[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Home[/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Away[/TD] [TD=class: xl25] Total[/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Home bets[/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Away bets[/TD] [TD=class: xl25]Total bets[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25](Price range)[/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [TD=class: xl25][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]1 - 1.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-23.89 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.66[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-23.23 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]274[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]39[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]313[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]2 - 2.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-11.28[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-17.57 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-28.85[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1725[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]350[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]2075[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]3 - 3.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.48[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-1.13[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-0.65[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]676[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]809[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1485[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]4 - 4.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-26.32 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-48.56[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-74.88[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]204[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]672[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]876[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]5 - 5.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]19.28[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]42.09[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]61.37[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]92[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]428[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]520[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]6 - 6.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1.32[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]23.18[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]24.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]31[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]286[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]317[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]7 - 7.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.94[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]30.52[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]40.46[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]28[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]168[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]196[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]8 - 8.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.31[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-3.24 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-2.93[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]16[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]121[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]137[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]9 - 9.99[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-10 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]44.89[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]34.89[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]10[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]87[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]97[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl25]10+[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-18[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]13.41[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]-4.59[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]18[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]192[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]210[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Dave_]

Re: Does distance matter? A one year summary. Well, first things first I'd like to congratulate you for posting for a year :clap I'm by no means an expert. And even though it may not be useful at all, I gladly share my opinion :lol So my point is: looking at the bet count I think there are rooms for filtering out matches. The criteria could be: 1, Leagues. You had more success in leagues where the strength of the teams are more balanced (like English lower leagues and J-League). So maybe it's worth filtering out unprofittable leagues (like Grex's homes) 2, Odds. It's interesting to see that your profit comes from at least 5.0. Maybe it's worth to bet on only >5.0 odds, or maybe after some filtering this trend will just disappear. 3, Away matches. Well, they showed better profit... :) Best of luck to you and your system :)