Areme Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Good morning, This is a total goals system which I will share for the 2013/14 English football season. The system will consider games in the Premier League and Championship only, although this could be expanded to other leagues and countries in future. Bets will be exclusively on the over/under 2.5 market. There's nothing special about this number, but the proximity to even money bets make it simple to follow etc. For the same reason I'll be using level stakes. In reporting progress, I'll use the usual tools e.g. profit, strike rate, yield, balance etc. However, I'll also report the 'risk:reward' ratio as I believe this is particularly useful (I'm happy to discuss this further if necessary). The first selections will be for Tuesday nights games and will be posted below shortly. Areme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Starting Bank 100pts 1pt per bet Odds taken from a well known site used for checking odds (I don't have the permissions to post the link) 17/09/13 19:45 Huddersfield vs Charlton over 2.5 @ 2.05 19:45 Ipswich vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.05 19:45 Nottingham Forest vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.01 20:00 Bolton vs Derby under 2.5 @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 17/09/13 19:45 Huddersfield vs Charlton over 2.5 @ 2.05 WIN 19:45 Ipswich vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.05 LOSS 19:45 Nottingham Forest vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.01 LOSS 20:00 Bolton vs Derby under 2.5 @ 1.91 LOSS Bank 98.05 Profit -1.95 Yield -49% Bets 4 Strike Rate 25% Risk/Reward -49% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 21/09/13 15:00 Blackpool vs Leicester over 2.5 @ 2.03 15:00 Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.82 15:00 Brighton vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 1.85 15:00 Derby vs Reading over 2.5 @ 1.91 15:00 Doncaster vs Nottingham Forest under 2.5 @ 1.82 15:00 Yeovil vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted September 21, 2013 Author Share Posted September 21, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 21/09/13 15:00 Blackpool vs Leicester over 2.5 @2.03 WIN 15:00 Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.82 LOSS 15:00 Brighton vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 1.85 LOSS 15:00 Derby vs Reading over 2.5 @ 1.91 WIN 15:00 Doncaster vs Nottingham Forest under 2.5 @ 1.82 LOSS 15:00 Yeovil vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.83 WIN Bank 97.82 Profit -2.18 Yield -22% Bets 10 Strike Rate 40% Risk/Reward -27% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 27/09/13 19:45 Huddersfield vs Blackpool over 2.5 @ 2.1 28/09/13 15:00 Bournemouth vs Blackburn under 2.5 @1.93 15:00 Bolton vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.1 15:00 Ipswich vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.82 15:00 Millwall vs Leeds under 2.5 @ 1.82 15:00 QPR vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 1.95 15:00 Watford vs Wigan over 2.5 @ 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 01/10/13 Birmingham vs Milwall under 2.5 @ 1.8 Blackpool vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 2.1 Doncaster vs Burnley over 2.5 @ 2.0 Leeds vs Bournemouth under 2.5 @ 2.0 Yeovil vs Leicester under 2.5 @ 2.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 27/09/13 19:45 Huddersfield vs Blackpool over 2.5 @ 2.1 LOSS 28/09/13 15:00 Bournemouth vs Blackburn under 2.5 @1.93 LOSS 15:00 Bolton vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.1 WIN 15:00 Ipswich vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.82 WIN 15:00 Millwall vs Leeds under 2.5 @ 1.82 WIN 15:00 QPR vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 1.95 WIN 15:00 Watford vs Wigan over 2.5 @ 1.8 LOSS 01/10/13 Birmingham vs Milwall under 2.5 @ 1.8 LOSS Blackpool vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 2.1 WIN Doncaster vs Burnley over 2.5 @ 2.0 LOSS Leeds vs Bournemouth under 2.5 @ 2.0 LOSS Yeovil vs Leicester under 2.5 @ 2.3 LOSS Bank 95.61 Profit -4.39 Yield -16% Bets 22 Strike Rate 33% Risk/Reward -48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 05/10/13 Birmingham vs Bolton Under 2.5 @ 2.1 Burnley vs Reading Over 2.5 @ 1.95 Charlton vs Blackpool Under 2.5 @ 1.91 Middlesbrough vs Yeovil Under 2.5 @ 2.05 QPR vs Barnsley Under 2.5 @ 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Birmingham vs Bolton Under 2.5 @ 2.1 LOSS Burnley vs Reading Over 2.5 @ 1.95 WIN Charlton vs Blackpool Under 2.5 @ 1.91 WIN Middlesbrough vs Yeovil Under 2.5 @ 2.05 LOSS QPR vs Barnsley Under 2.5 @ 2.25 WIN Bank 96.72 Profit -3.28 Yield -12% Bets 27 Strike Rate 44% Risk/Reward -35% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System However' date= I'll also report the 'risk:reward' ratio as I believe this is particularly useful (I'm happy to discuss this further if necessary) Good luck with your system, Areme :ok I would be interested to get some more information on your "risk reward" ratio. It seems to be more pessimistic than the more familiar "yield" percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Yes, very interesting thread Areme, good luck with your system! I am also curious about "risk reward" ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Grex, Zbrochu, Thanks for your comments. Re: risk/reward - It stems from my belief that sports betting can be a credible form of investment, alongside shares, funds, property etc. People are sometimes fond of comparing yields to say, what you would get by putting the money in the bank, however, this can be misleading and overly conservative. This is because the 'bank' in a betting system is often just an arbitrary figure. The majority of it can be in an actual bank, earning interest, until it needs to be put at risk. Money is recycled through the system, so 5% yield from 1000 units, bet over a season is a very different prospect to 5% earned on a balance of 1000 units held in a bank for 8 months. You may be able to achieve the former with a starting balance of 100 units, you definitely can't achieve the latter with the same staring balance. So, the figure I have quoted is the current level of return as a percentage of the maximum exposure seen all season. You could (and probably should) argue that the average exposure is more appropriate, but that can get a little complicated. This all becomes a bit meaningless when the system is running at a loss, as the reward is negative, but should make sense when back in profit. In this particular case the profit is currently -3.28 and the maximum exposure was on 05/10/13 when the bank initially stood at 95.61 and I placed 5 bets to temporarily reduce it to 90.61 (i.e. exposure of 9.39). -3.28/9.39 = -0.35, so for every unit risked, the system has currently returned a profit of -35%. Incidentally, I'm expecting the system to make 200+ bets this season (Premier League games will be added after international break) and hoping for an overall yield of approximately 15-20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System ..... In this particular case the profit is currently -3.28 and the maximum exposure was on 05/10/13 when the bank initially stood at 95.61 and I placed 5 bets to temporarily reduce it to 90.61 (i.e. exposure of 9.39). -3.28/9.39 = -0.35, so for every unit risked, the system has currently returned a profit of -35%. Thanks for the explanation but, to be honest, I am not sure I understand (perhaps I am just thick :p). To date, you have risked a total of 27 units. Your profit is currently (minus) 3.28 units. Therefore, "for every unit risked, the system has currently returned a profit of" (-3.28/27) = -12% which, of course, is the same calculation as your "yield". I could understand if you did a running comparison of the performance of your theoretical betting bank, compared with the performance of the starting bank deposited in a nice safe bank account, earning (say) 5% interest. This would give you some idea of the extra-over performance of your betting system. ..... Incidentally' date=' I'm expecting the system to make 200+ bets this season (Premier League games will be added after international break) and hoping for an overall yield of approximately 15-20%[/quote'] Good luck with achieving an overall yield of 15-20% :loon. Very few systems have been this successful (one exception being Danzku's Finnish ice hockey thread) - if you do manage it, I will personally nominate you for a Punters' Lounge Oscars award ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Thanks Grex, I think you've understood my point correctly, but for clarity - I would argue that I haven't risked 27 units, although I have made 27 bets of 1 unit each, for me there is a subtle difference. The comparison excercise would probably be a more comprehensive measure, but I just intend it to be another indicator really. There are many risks associated with betting on sport, but this is a key plus point i.e. unlike conventional investements, it's not necessary to tie up all the money for the duration of the investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 17, 2013 Author Share Posted October 17, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 19/10/13 15:00 Barnsley vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.25 15:00 Blackburn vs Charlton under 2.5 @ 1.91 15:00 Bolton vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.83 15:00 Millwall vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.78 15:00 Yeovil vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.75 12:45 Newcastle vs Liverpool under 2.5 @ 2.25 15:00 Manchester United vs Southampton under 2.5 @ 2.2 15:00 Stoke vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 1.7 15:00 Swansea vs Sunderland under 2.5 @ 2 17:30 West Ham vs Manchester City under 2.5 @ 2.1 20/10/13 13:15 Leeds vs Birmingham under 2.5 @ 1.95 16:00 Aston Villa vs Tottenham under 2.5 @ 1.93 21/10/13 20:00 Crystal Palace vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 1.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Hi Areme. Very interesting. I see that your system is making a number of the same selections as my own and looking at my ratings I can see why you are going for many of the others - although my selection criteria are telling me that the value on them is a bit too low to back. I wonder if we are doing something very similar?....... Good luck for the season :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Still waiting on the Crystal Palace vs Fulham game tonight, but will do a quick update in the interim 19/10/13 15:00 Barnsley vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.25 LOSS 15:00 Blackburn vs Charlton under 2.5 @ 1.91 WIN 15:00 Bolton vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.83 WIN 15:00 Millwall vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.78 LOSS 15:00 Yeovil vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.75 WIN 12:45 Newcastle vs Liverpool under 2.5 @ 2.25 LOSS 15:00 Manchester United vs Southampton under 2.5 @ 2.2 WIN 15:00 Stoke vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 1.7 WIN 15:00 Swansea vs Sunderland under 2.5 @ 2 LOSS 17:30 West Ham vs Manchester City under 2.5 @ 2.1 LOSS 20/10/13 13:15 Leeds vs Birmingham under 2.5 @ 1.95 LOSS 16:00 Aston Villa vs Tottenham under 2.5 @ 1.93 WIN 21/10/13 20:00 Crystal Palace vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 1.78 Bank 96.04 Profit -3.96 Yield -10% Bets 39 Strike Rate 46% Risk/Reward -26% aldebaran, it will be interesting to see if our systems continue to produce similar selections. The perception of 'value' always has some degree of subjectivity, as 'true odds' are never fully known. Hence, all we can do is callibrate systems over the long term to try to maximise the return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 26/09/13 12;15 Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.95 15:00 Bolton vs Ipswich under 2.5 @ 1.91 15:00 Derby vs Birmingham over 2.5 @ 1.85 15:00 Yeovil vs Nott'm Forest under 2.5 @ 2 15:00 Aston Villa vs Everton under 2.5 @ 1.95 15:00 Liverpool vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 2.5 15:00 Manchester United vs Stoke under 2.5 @ 1.78 15:00 Norwich vs Cardiff under 2.5 @ 2.1 17:30 Southampton vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 1.95 27/10/13 15:00 Charlton vs Wigan under 2.5 @ 1.83 13:30 Sunderland vs Newcastle under 2.5 @ 1.95 16:00 Tottenham vs Hull under 2.5 @ 1.87 Again there are some similarities with aldebaran's system. However, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that statistics based systems are predicting predominantly low scoring games this season. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2421763/Premier-League-averages-lowest-goals-game-ratio-time.html Please note that I'm not suggesting that anyone should actually go out and buy the Daily Mail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System *Apologies - See corrections to Premier League odds in red below 26/09/13 12;15 Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.95 15:00 Bolton vs Ipswich under 2.5 @ 1.91 15:00 Derby vs Birmingham over 2.5 @ 1.85 15:00 Yeovil vs Nott'm Forest under 2.5 @ 2 *15:00 Aston Villa vs Everton under 2.5 @ 2 15:00 Liverpool vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 2.5 *15:00 Manchester United vs Stoke under 2.5 @ 2.2 *15:00 Norwich vs Cardiff under 2.5 @ 1.8 17:30 Southampton vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 1.95 27/10/13 15:00 Charlton vs Wigan under 2.5 @ 1.83 *13:30 Sunderland vs Newcastle under 2.5 @ 2 *16:00 Tottenham vs Hull under 2.5 @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 02/11/13 15:00 Stoke vs Southampton under 2.5 @ 1.65 15:00 West Brom vs Crystal Palace under 2.5 @ 2.15 15:00 West Ham vs Aston Villa under 2.5 @ 1.92 15:00 Bournemouth vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 2.00 15:00 Birmingham vs Charlton under 2.5 @ 1.73 15:00 Blackburn vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.00 15:00 Doncaster vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.73 15:00 Leeds vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.05 15:00 Millwall vs Burnley under 2.5 @ 1.85 15:00 Nottingham Forest vs Blackpool under 2.5 @ 1.91 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading under 2.5 @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 2, 2013 Author Share Posted November 2, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 26/09/13 12:15 Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday under 2.5 @ 1.95 WIN 15:00 Bolton vs Ipswich under 2.5 @ 1.91 WIN 15:00 Derby vs Birmingham over 2.5 @ 1.85 WIN 15:00 Yeovil vs Nott'm Forest under 2.5 @ 2 LOSS 15:00 Aston Villa vs Everton under 2.5 @ 2 WIN 15:00 Liverpool vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 2.5 LOSS 15:00 Manchester United vs Stoke under 2.5 @ 2.2 LOSS 15:00 Norwich vs Cardiff under 2.5 @ 1.8 WIN 17:30 Southampton vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 1.95 WIN 27/10/13 15:00 Charlton vs Wigan under 2.5 @ 1.83 WIN 13:30 Sunderland vs Newcastle under 2.5 @ 2 LOSS 16:00 Tottenham vs Hull under 2.5 @ 2.05 WIN 02/11/13 15:00 Stoke vs Southampton under 2.5 @ 1.65 WIN 15:00 West Brom vs Crystal Palace under 2.5 @ 2.15 WIN 15:00 West Ham vs Aston Villa under 2.5 @ 1.92 WIN 17:30 Arsenal vs Liverpool over 2.5 @ 1.7 LOSS 15:00 Bournemouth vs Bolton under 2.5 @ 2.00 WIN 15:00 Birmingham vs Charlton under 2.5 @ 1.73 WIN 15:00 Blackburn vs Middlesbrough under 2.5 @ 2.00 WIN 15:00 Doncaster vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.73 LOSS 15:00 Leeds vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 2.05 WIN 15:00 Millwall vs Burnley under 2.5 @ 1.85 LOSS 15:00 Nottingham Forest vs Blackpool under 2.5 @ 1.91 WIN 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading under 2.5 @ 1.91 LOSS Bank 99.14 Profit -0.86 Yield -0.01 Bets 63.00 Strike Rate 0.51 Risk/Reward -0.05 You'll notice than the Arsenal vs Liverpool game wasn't in my original selections. My apologies, this was an oversight on my part. As the bet lost, I hope you'd agree that it would be a nonsense for me to omit this from the results due to 'after eventing' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 09/11/13 12:15 Reading vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.80 15:00 Barnsley vs Doncaster under 2.5 @ 2.00 15:00 Bolton vs Millwall under 2.5 @ 1.80 15:00 Charlton vs Leeds under 2.5 @ 1.83 15:00 Chelsea vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 2.50 15:00 Crystal Palace vs Everton under 2.5 @ 2.05 15:00 Liverpool vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 2.75 15:00 Southampton vs hull under 2.5 @ 1.73 17:30 Norwich vs West Ham under 2.5 @ 1.75 10/11/13 15:00 Yeovil vs Wigan under 2.5 @ 1.98 12:00 Tottenham vs Newcastle under 2.5 @ 2.10 16:10 Man United vs Arsenal over 2.5@ 1.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 09/11/13 12:15 Reading vs QPR under 2.5 @ 1.80 WIN 15:00 Barnsley vs Doncaster under 2.5 @ 2.00 WIN 15:00 Bolton vs Millwall under 2.5 @ 1.80 LOSS 15:00 Charlton vs Leeds under 2.5 @ 1.83 LOSS 15:00 Chelsea vs West Brom under 2.5 @ 2.50 LOSS 15:00 Crystal Palace vs Everton under 2.5 @ 2.05 WIN 15:00 Liverpool vs Fulham under 2.5 @ 2.75 LOSS 15:00 Southampton vs hull under 2.5 @ 1.73 LOSS 17:30 Norwich vs West Ham under 2.5 @ 1.75 LOSS 10/11/13 15:00 Yeovil vs Wigan under 2.5 @ 1.98 WIN 12:00 Tottenham vs Newcastle under 2.5 @ 2.10 WIN 16:10 Man United vs Arsenal over 2.5@ 1.78 LOSS Bank 98.20 Profit -1.80 Yield -0.02 Bets 76.00 Strike Rate 0.49 Risk/Reward -0.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System 22/11/13 Doncaster vs Yeovil under 2.5 @ 1.90 23/11/13 Hull vs Crystal Palace under 2.5 @ 1.73 Newcastle vs Norwich under 2.5 @ 2.10 Stoke vs Sunderland under 2.5 @ 1.73 West Ham vs Chelsea under 2.5 @ 2.00 QPR vs Charlton under 2.5 @ 1.73 Wigan vs Brighton under 2.5 @ 1.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System One of the main websites I use for data appears to be having some technical problems (whoscored.com). Unfortunately this means the system is on hold until further notice. Very unhappy about this, but also very busy at the moment so any solution is likey to come too late for this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System Back up and running now. 01/12/13 12:00 Tottenham vs Man United under 2.5 @ 1.87 16:10 Man City vs swansea over 2.5@ 1.62 I'll backtest yesterday's results for my own records, but won't show them on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Areme Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Re: Universal Total Goals System More technical issues, this time on my side. System on hold until bugs are fixed. Apologies to anyone who was following this and thanks to those who have contributed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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