Gambling Gorilla Posted March 11, 2005 Share Posted March 11, 2005 Good evening all. I'd like to paper trail a simple system which looks at the team in each league which has conceeded the highest number of goals and betting on their next game to be over 2.5 goals. Nice and simple. Tempted to look at home and away records and deal with each seperately depending upon whether a team's playing home or away but because I'm lazy, I'm not going to. Will look at main European leagues though depending upon what odds are available and how easy the stats are to access, other leagues may be included. One extra rule is to avoid leagues where there a few goals and only start doing this after the first 10 matches (arbitrary number, could be anything. 10s nice and round though). For example, in France, Caen are currently the chosen team but only 8 of 18 games (11th game onwards) have been over so required odds are too high. Also, because I'm lazy, I'm using gamebookers' odds it is likely that any returns could easily be improved upon with a bit of shopping around. Gamebookers not working so whatever I can find on oddschecker I will use. Quite irritating. Where oddschecker has nothiing, I'll use interwetten who's odds are rubbish but it'll give an indications as to whether this'll work or not. If anybody fancies doing some past analysis I'll be interested to see it! So, on to this weekend: 12th March Crewe v. Sunderland - 1.95 Stockport v. Colchester - 1.70 Notts County v. Kidderminster - 1.80 Scarborough v. Leigh RMI - 1.70 Stranrear v. Arbroath - East Stirling v. Cowdenbeath - Any Help? Hansa Rostock v. Bochum - 1.80 Freiburg v. Nurnberg - 1.80 13th March Dundee v. Rangers - 1.65 All level stakes. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 100 Total staked: 0 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: N/A Yield: N/A Profit/Loss: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 11, 2005 Share Posted March 11, 2005 Re: Simple System Arbroath 4.5 (Widely Available) East Stirling 4.5 (Widely available) Both from www.odds-comparison.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted March 12, 2005 Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System Think he means the odds for over 2.5 goals WTFE, sadly they dont do markets for over 2.5 goals in the lower scottish division so you may have to remove them from your selections. Otherwise good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted March 12, 2005 Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System I understand the simple logic and agree with you good luck sounds good initially , lets see how it gets on , difficult not to have a little bet though I suspect ! Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 12, 2005 Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System Whoops. Read the post and then completly forgot what he was doing. Best of asking in the Scots thread. I know someone has mentioned goal betting in the lower divisions in there before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 12, 2005 Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System Dear GG, I tried a similar test system, for total goals, only I backed low goals (under 2.5 goals), selecting matches to use for my spreadbetting 'total goals' sells bets.I made a bit of cash backing low goals in burnley and stoke matches but had to use an increasing stake plan after a losing bet. I avoided league 1 matches as the goal average is high in this division. Why not try a paper test for under 2.5 goals bets? As for high score teams, arsenal(h),sunderland(h),preston(h),hartlepool(h),sheff wed(a),yeovil(h+a), and southend(a) are worth backing.Good Luck! Spreadman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambling Gorilla Posted March 12, 2005 Author Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System 12th March Crewe v. Sunderland - 1.95 - :( Stockport v. Colchester - 1.70 - :D Notts County v. Kidderminster - 1.80 - :D Scarborough v. Leigh RMI - 1.70 - :D Stranrear v. Arbroath - No Odds - :D East Stirling v. Cowdenbeath - No odds - :D Hansa Rostock v. Bochum - 1.80 - :D Freiburg v. Nurnberg - 1.80 - :D An encouraging start today. Shame there aren't more odds available for the over/under 2.5, Interwetten normally oblige. If anybody knows where I can get league tables and team's results for all leagues which are updated regularly also, I'll see how other leagues fair. All level stakes. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 102.8 Total staked: 6 Number of bets: 6 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 83% Yield: 47% Profit/Loss: +2.8 Spreadman - I considered the under and it is possible that something similar could work. We'll see how this one goes first though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambling Gorilla Posted March 12, 2005 Author Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Simple System An extra bet for the weekend (over 2.5 goals) now that I've got gamebookers working... 13th March Cercle Brugge v. Anderlecht - 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambling Gorilla Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Simple System 13th March Dundee v. Rangers - 1.65 - :( Cercle Brugge v. Anderlecht - 1.65 - :D At the end of the first weekend we have the following: Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 102.45 Total staked: 8 Number of bets: 8 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 75% Yield: 30.63% Profit/Loss: +2.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Simple System Well done, GG - my suggested 'over 2.5' selections didn't fare too badly - goals- 4,1,5,3.See how we go next week. In profit today-bought bookings in the newcastle match- yellow cards everywhere! Good Luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambling Gorilla Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Simple System Let's hope there's some long-term profit in this and it's not just a lucky start! 15th March West Ham v. Crewe - 1.79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambling Gorilla Posted March 16, 2005 Author Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Simple System West Ham v. Crewe - 1.79 - :( Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.45 Number of bets: 9 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 3 Strike rate: 67% Yield: 16% Profit/Loss: +1.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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