Target: 33.33%

[FedericoBTH]

Back at home for this fall, will keep a thread with all my selections. Some simple rules: - Bookmakers allowed will be just Bet365 and StanJames, the only two where I actually place my bets. Both are *BOG bookies so I won't write it again in each selection, just keep in mind that every horse will be priced up as SP if the odds are bigger than the price taken. - My Best Bet Of The Day selection will be posted in the proper daily thread with the best price available between all BOG bookies for the purpose of the comp. - In real life if you exploit the line too often bookies limit you in no time. That's why I always place my bets around 9am UK time when most of the bookies already have priced up all the races and the market is considered reasonably sharper than the night before. - All bets will have one line of two of reasoning. My target is to keep a 33.33% strike rate and (possibly) also a 33.33% yield. How did I perform in the past? I kept another thread during the summer on another forum (US based and very well known) and my record after 95 bets said 33.68% strike rate and 40.08% yield (but using all BOG bookies available). Let's try to go closer to these numbers again! As I'll progress in my thread I (of course) will try to refine my selection process filtering out non profitable bets (analyzing it with a spreadsheet I built earlier this year) in order to improve my yield. Have fun! :hope 2.40 HAM Nightster 5/2 (Bet365) Winning debut and now first time handicapping with a pretty good 74 mark. Hamilton is the top track for Joe Fanning (again in the saddle) with a 30% over 102 3yo mounts for a lsp of +£ 34.88. 3.40 HAM Mahican 5/4 (Bet365) Very good debut when positive 2nd at Pontefract. Breeding should suit the extra furlong and today contest looks weaker. Mark Johnston is 38/141 (27%) +£ 19.27 with his 3yo at Hamilton over the last 5 years.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Target: 33.33% Nightster 2nd. Mahican easily won by 4 lenghts but with a 45p Rule 4 applied to the original price. The horse steamed down to 1/7. Bets: 2 Wins: 1 Strike rate: 50.00% P/L: -£ 0.313 Yield: - 15.65%