Flat Racing - Thursday 22nd of August

[Aidymac]

York 2:30 - Connolly's Red Mills Lowther Stakes (Group 2) In summary I think the most likely winner of the race is Lucky Kristale who looked supreme in Group 2 company last time out. She has a great cruising speed and showed a devastating turn of foot last time out, so it could be an easy ride for Tom Queally. The Mick Channon trained Kaiulani is not without hope as she caught the eye on debut and probably needed the experience in this company last time out. Lucky Kristale - 3 Points WIN @ 10/3 Stan James Kaiulani - 1 Point WIN @ 14/1 Betfred Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/lowther-stakes-betting-lucky-kristale-is-in-cracking-form-and-kaiulani-offers-some-real-value

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 22nd of August 1.55 DBS PREMIER YEARLING STAKES This extremely valuable juvenile sales race has been a very lucrative one for Kevin Ryan who has trained the winner of the past two renewals in the shape of Bogart and Hototo. This year Ryan saddles a few with chances but SLEEPER KING appears to hold the strongest claims having previously run well in the Windsor Castle & Molcomb Stakes. The latter of which, is his best form to date when headed in the final furlong before finishing a very creditable fourth. He shaped as a good horse on that day, but that he may just lack an explosive turn of foot to excel at 5, so the extra furlong looks set to suit. Favourites have a good record in the race and although he concedes weight to a few of his rivals he certainly fits the profile of a winner of this big race. I failed to add Xanthos into my horse tracker after his debut effort at Windsor which has turned out to be a huge mistake seeing as he went on to win his next start at Newcastle when 12/1. The manor of his Windsor win suggested he was above average, given an easy ride he closed ground well to finish a very nice fourth behind a well gambled Andrew Balding juvenile. He backed that up in stylish fashion when running away with his maiden at Newcastle, striding away to win by just under four lengths. He still looks rather green and has plenty of room to grow as a tall rangy son of Medicean but if he manages to lengthen the way he looks capable of at 20/1 he could be a lively outsider. 2.30 Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes TRAINER TRENDS Two current trainers have by far and away the best record in the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes, namely Richard Hannon and Mick Channon who have both won the race four times in their careers, including twice in the last decade. The former is not represented this year but Channon saddles the lightly raced Kaiulani, who was not disgraced in the Queen Mary Stakes last time out on just her second career start. Three other trainers with a runner this year have tasted success in the past – Tim Easterby (1999), Jeremy Noseda (2003) and Brian Meehan (2009), while Charles Hills’ father Barry was successful in 2006 with Silk Blossom. RECENT FORM Good recent form is a strong pointer and horses that have run below their best last time out need not apply. In the last quarter of a century only two winners of the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes had finished worse than third on their most recent outing. This is a huge negative for five of today’s nine-strong field – Alutiq, Azagal, Kaiulani, Merletta and Reroute. Nine of the last thirteen winners had been successful on their most recent starts, although only this has only been the case on three occasions in the last seven years. Nevertheless, this is still a decent positive trend and a good pointer to the chances of Lucky Kristale, J Wonder and Wind Fire. Relatively unexposed horses are who we should be looking at as well; in the last ten years only one winner had previously raced on more than three occasions. KEY RACES Three Ascot races have been the best pointers in recent years. The Albany Stakes (6f) and Queen Mary Stakes (5f), both run at Royal Ascot, have produced two winners apiece, but it is the Princess Margaret Stakes, run in July over today’s trip of 6f, that has been the best pointer to the winner of this, having been responsible for four winners going back to 2002. Queen Catrine (2nd) and Reroute (5th) represents the Princess Margaret form this time around. Looking at the wider picture, it is interesting to note that all bar two Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther winners in the last decade had previously tried at least Listed level, so we can look to oppose those stepping up in class (three runners fall into that category today). BETTING The last two winners of the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther have both returned an SP of 11/1, but with the average starting price in the last ten years still being just a shade over 5/1 we should probably still focus our attentions on those towards the head of the betting. There have been four winning favourites in the last decade although only one since Flashy Wings landed odds of 10/11 in 2005. DISTANCE There is nothing to be gained in this area as in recent seasons there is a fairly even split of winning fillies which had already won over six furlongs and those that were winning over this trip for the first time. CONCLUSION Only two of the nine runners survive some particularly strong negative trends, namely the penalized Lucky Kristale, and Charles Hills’ Queen Catrine. The pair met in a Group 2 at Newmarket last month with the former, a surprise 20/1 winner, finishing three lengths ahead of third-placed Queen Catrine. However, the latter has since finished a good second in the best trial for the Lowther, the Princess Margaret Stakes, and the booking of Johnny Murtagh for today’s contest is extremely eye-catching. Trainer Charles Hills was assistant to his father Barry when their star filly Silk Blossom was successful in this race seven years ago. NEGATIVES Not in the first three last time out – Alutiq, Azagal, Kaiulani, Merletta, Reroute Previously raced more than three times – Alutiq, Azagal, Wind Fire Yet to run in a Group race – Azagal, J Wonder, Merletta POSITIVES Ran well in the Princess Margaret, Albany or Queen Mary – Queen Catrine, Reroute Last time out winners – Lucky Kristale, J Wonder, Wind Fire Trained by Mick Channon – Kaiulani 3.05 CLIPPER LOGISTICS STAKES Another of the big handicaps this week at York, which looks as equally hard to unlock but WENTWORTH looks like he may be the magic key. Although favourite don’t have a particularly good record in the race, I wouldn’t let that put you off as I believe Wentworth is certainly of Group class masquerading as a handicapper at this point in his career. He won the Betfred mile with a fair bit in hand over a similar horse posing as a handicapper in Cape Peron and although he went up seven pounds for the win he still looks ahead of the handicapper. I’d imagine this is his last shot in handicap company before heading onto pattern company and connections will be hoping he can head into those black type races with some prize money picked up at the Ebor festival. If any of his rivals are going to lay down a challenge to Hannon’s star it may be Sandagiyr who finished third behind Wentworth at Goodwood. Many people that day felt that the Godolphin owned colt was rather unlucky, finding a significant amount of trouble before running on well in the closing stages to create a good impression. This was a return to form for the horse who has ran in Britain, France and Dubai, all of which he has shown promise but has proven a bit hit and miss. Although he also received a hike in the weights after Goodwood he reaposes Wentworth on better terms and if he gets a clear passage, on a hit day he may be in with a healthy squeak. 3.40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks AGE No strong trends, but three-year-olds appear to have a slight advantage as they have won 13 of the 22 renewals (and seven of the last thirteen) to have taken place since older fillies and mares were permitted to run, albeit from almost two thirds of the total runners. The fact that the ‘Classic Generation’ receives a 10lb weight allowance from their older rivals probably has something to do with their overall advantage, as by this time of the season they ought to be fully mature and practically on an even footing so the weight-for-age is really an added bonus. This year there is an even split between three-year-olds and their older rivals. TRAINERS The much-missed Sir Henry Cecil had a tremendous record training fillies so it is no surprise that he won the Darley Yorkshire Oaks four times – most recently in 2010. Since Sir Henry’s passing, his widow Jane has taken over the reins at Warren Place and has declared two fillies for today’s contest, namely the five-year-old Wild Coco (who was a late non-runner in this race last year) and the three-year-old Riposte. Four more of today’s trainers have tasted Darley Yorkshire Oaks success in the past: dual winners Luca Cumani (Emirates Queen) and Aidan O’Brien (Venus Di Milo), plus John Gosden (The Fugue) and Jim Bolger (Scintillula). Nine-time winner Sir Michael Stoute is not represented this time around. KEY RACES With three-year-olds holding sway it isn’t surprising that the Investec Oaks has provided six recent winners of this race; only the late-maturing Quiff did not line up in the second fillies’ Classic on her way to success here. However, a good run at Epsom is not necessarily a pre-requisite (many a top-class filly has struggled to handle the unique undulations) and the likes of Islington, Lush Lashes and Blue Bunting all finished out of the places before scoring here later in the season. Secret Gesture (second) is aiming to uphold the Epsom form today. The Darley Irish Oaks has proved a much more consistent guide, probably as there are only five weeks between the two races making it much easier for a trainer to keep their filly or mare in tip-top condition. Of the six most recent Darley Irish Oaks winners to have taken their chance here, five have managed to do the double. This year’s Curragh winner, the French-trained Chicquita, has not made the journey across the Channel Sea, so the form is represented by Venus Di Milo, Scintillula and Riposte (second, fourth and fifth respectively). RECENT FORM Eight of the last thirteen winners here had been successful last time out, and that could or perhaps should have been nine had Lush Lashes not endured a nightmare passage in her previous outing in the 2008 Nassau Stakes. This confirms the fact that a filly needs to be at the top of her game coming into the race. Taking the recent form angle a little further we see that eleven of the last thirteen winners had contested a Group 1 or Group 2 on their last start, showing that horses stepping up in class can probably be opposed. BETTING Those towards the head of the betting are more often than not the group to focus on. In the last decade there have been five winning favourites and three second favourites, with the average SP of the winner only a shade over 5/2. Only two of the last ten winners have returned an SP greater than 7/2, so it surely must pay to focus attention on those that head the market. CONCLUSION A fascinating ‘clash of the generations’ renewal featuring last year’s runner-up and two three-year-olds who have finished second in a version of the Oaks. Taking the trends at face value none of the eight declared runners survive all of the negatives, although it must be said that the Group 3 at Cork that Venus Di Milo contested last time out can only be considered a warm-up for the Darley Yorkshire Oaks; prior to that she was a fast-finishing half-length second in the Irish Oaks (a great trial for this race) so the fact that she did not content a top-level race last time out can surely be forgiven. Secret Gesture has found only one too good in both the English and German versions of the Oaks and sorely deserves her day in the sun; she too has a strong trends profile. The Fugue’s fine effort in this race twelve months ago puts her right in the mix, but she came into last year’s race off the back of a Group 1 win, so her moderate effort last time (albeit against colts) tempers enthusiasm. NEGATIVES Without a victory last time out – All except Wild Coco and Venus Di Milo Market outsider – Emirates Queen, Moment In Time, Scintillula Did not contest a Group 1 or 2 race last time – Wild Coco, Scintillula, Venus Di Milo POSITIVES Three-year-olds – Riposte, Scintillula, Secret Gesture, Venus Di Milo Top three placing in the English or Irish Oaks – Secret Gesture, Venus Di Milo Trained by Lady Cecil – Wild Coco, Riposte 4.20 “BREEDERS BACKING RACING” EBF GALTRES STAKES (Listed Race) William Haggas has a rather impressive record at York and he will be hoping that his filly OUR OBSESSION will be able to bolster those figures. She has improved with each racecourse start, winning at the second time of asking as a juvenile, cruising away with her Maiden at HQ to win by three lengths. Her connections held her in high regard over the winter and were rather hopeful that we she would be able to run in the top races of 2013. Unfortunately she suffered a setback over the spring which really ended all classic dreams but they got her back right for a handicap debut on the Knavesmire at the end of July. She stayed on impressively over a mile and a quarter that day making her rivals looking extremely moderate and the connections will hope she is able to do the same again with the added two furlongs looking right up her alley. After the win at York Haggas nominated the Galtres Stakes as the main target, she will have been trained for this race and if she retains as much ability as the team feel she has then this inexperienced filly is more than capable of winning some very valuable black type. The other rather unexposed but undeniably talented filly in the line-up is the Lady Cecil trained Songbird who has already won two races including a five length maiden romp before an eleven length demolition job at Yarmouth. She then headed to Newbury for a crack at the Listed Chalice stakes where she ran a nice race only to be headed in the final few strides by a rather progressive James Fanshawe trained filly. That was her first taste of a proper fight and although she didn’t win she certainly lost nothing in defeat. Songbird was one of the first winners officially trained in Lady Cecil’s name, and I believe she is more than capable of providing Lady Cecil with a very special winner on the track where Frankel produced one of his most magical performances. 4.55 VENTMASTERS.CO.UK EBF FILLIES´ STAKES David O’Meara is having a terrific season and is very close to breaking through the 100 winner barrier, last season he saddled the winner of this race and with three entries this year he stands a very good chance of winning it once again. NURPUR potentially offers the most realistic chance of a winner and the booking of Ryan Moore is a real positive. This filly by Dark Angel has really been a model of consistency having only finished outside the first three on two occasions over her sixteen race career but only broke her maiden in the summer of his year at the twelfth time of asking. She hasn’t looked back from that day having won two races over a mile the latest on the Knavesmire itself running out a convincing winner. She has been creeping up the weights this season which is a worry but the drop to seven may be able to counteract that, and with the former champ on her connections will be hoping she is one step ahead of the handicapper once again. Tartiflette looked a filly with a real future at the end of her 2012 campaign, where she had run in some very nice races and although hadn’t managed to get her head in front, she proved she had a fair amount of talent. She picked up this year where she left off winning a seven furlong contest at Haydock with a fair amount in hand, but unfortunately the handicapper dealt her a hefty hike in the weights and since then she hasn’t been competitive. Of her four subsequent efforts, the only one of real note was when finishing a solid sixth in the Victoria Cup. As such she has been going down in the weights and now sits around the mark that she was last victorious, which may just be enough for her to recapture her form. Graham Gibbons is back on board for the first time since her sole victory of 2013 and if he and the fact she has slipped back to a competitive mark both work then she certainly has enough talent to be deemed a serious danger in the final race of Day 2.