Running at wrong distances

[jayalexander]

Hi gang, I've just ran a sweep of the last two years Irish NH results and it shows that runners which were upped in distance 3-4f within a month after finishing second or third LTO end up winning 17.5% of the time. The figure drops by 5 percent when using UK data. Sadly this isn't the Irish golden egg as it produces a loss to SP of almost 30pts, but the UK loss is three times more. Irish selections using this criteria have been 410, while UK have been 803. There is also a pretty good place rate at some good prices, so I really do think that this may be something to look into further. I will report back with any further findings. Feel free to add any of your own thoughts.

[radelnblueangel]

Re: Running at wrong distances Hi Jayalexander, i wouldnt follow this investigation blindly, it certainly holds some truth, that animals that perform on a certain distance pretty good are not certain to show that ability over further, but before considering a horse which is raised or dropped in trip i would suggest to physical look at the horse and find out if it should be better over further or not. If you find with your stats and personal observations of horses the ones, that are not suited to longer distances via live stream you will prob raise your Strikerate quite rapidly. For example if Sprinter Sacre is running the 3m2f this year i wouldnt back him considering his physique from last year, hes not a stayertype and you can see that quite easily in the TV.