canucksnation Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Hi everyone, been following this forum for awhile now and this season will be my first time taking a plunge on punting. So I've compiled my own ratings of the supremacy and total goals to convert into my own prices and then use it to measure against the market prices. So I've got a few questions to ask and I hope to get some replies back. Along with any other rules/strategies for long term profitability and controlled risk management. 1. Let say I've compiled all my prices on a Thursday for matches that kickoff on Saturday. The compilation of my prices also included all the injuries issues and other team related news. I check my price against the market and appears as though my price at 100% is less than the market current price, so I would place a bet with the market. Now let say next day for Friday, market has either shortened towards my way and there are no new team news or injuries of that sort, what should I do here? And then let say if market drifted away from my 100% price, what should I do here? 2. And for the above scenario, let say the market movement is because of new injuries or other team news related, what should I do? 3. On match day, if the market has drifted from my 100% price, do you place another bet or don't go against the market as it should be more stronger and solid now? Please let me know guys, much thanks! Good luck to everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Re: nOOb 101 - What are the rules/strategies of general punting in football? Shout from BC! Go canucks! Well, if you have a value against the bookie's, then I think you should keep it up. From my experience, I don't expect much volatilities at the odds changing especially on those main stream leagues anyway. If you hesitate, then probably you can hold on it till last couple hours before kick offs. Curious what leagues you gonna be play on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Re: nOOb 101 - What are the rules/strategies of general punting in football? If this is your first season at punting, my first advice would be to paper trail any bets to find out where the weaknesses and strengths are and use this to improve your betting strategy. Secondly, if you are producing a 100% book which can be measured against the bookies prices, it might be worth googling the Kelly Criterion (if not done so already) as a possible way of knowing how much to bet when. If you are paper trailing, you could then compare this way of betting against other methods (eg taking on your own bets rather than following a system 100%). And :welcome to PL, by the way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Re: nOOb 101 - What are the rules/strategies of general punting in football? Hi everyone, been following this forum for awhile now and this season will be my first time taking a plunge on punting. So I've compiled my own ratings of the supremacy and total goals to convert into my own prices and then use it to measure against the market prices. So I've got a few questions to ask and I hope to get some replies back. Along with any other rules/strategies for long term profitability and controlled risk management. 1. Let say I've compiled all my prices on a Thursday for matches that kickoff on Saturday. The compilation of my prices also included all the injuries issues and other team related news. I check my price against the market and appears as though my price at 100% is less than the market current price, so I would place a bet with the market. Now let say next day for Friday, market has either shortened towards my way and there are no new team news or injuries of that sort, what should I do here? And then let say if market drifted away from my 100% price, what should I do here? 2. And for the above scenario, let say the market movement is because of new injuries or other team news related, what should I do? 3. On match day, if the market has drifted from my 100% price, do you place another bet or don't go against the market as it should be more stronger and solid now? Please let me know guys, much thanks! Good luck to everyone I don't quite think of bets in the language you are using. From my experience I would say try to limit the number of bets you have. If you have more than one bet on the same market, it will probably be harder to make money, as each bet will have its' own costs. Also try to limit the number of matches you bet on, as you will find it easier to get an edge. And if possible, don't stake more than 2% of your bank on any single bet :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucksnation Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 Re: nOOb 101 - What are the rules/strategies of general punting in football? Shout from BC! Go canucks! Well, if you have a value against the bookie's, then I think you should keep it up. From my experience, I don't expect much volatilities at the odds changing especially on those main stream leagues anyway. If you hesitate, then probably you can hold on it till last couple hours before kick offs. Curious what leagues you gonna be play on? GO CANUCKS GO! Nice to see a fellow Canucks fan on this board Thats what I was thinking with those main stream leagues, most of the times they are very solid and consistent. If the line drifts or shorten by a lot on game day, could be a very large bet from a long term winning professional. So that makes you wonder if you want to go against the market or not. The leagues I'am playing with are EPL, Budesliga, French Ligue, and La Liga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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