Estimations based on Odds Data of local book

[christos83]

Hello Everyone. Before i start i would like to share some things about me as a new member here. As everyone here i suppose, i spent and spend many hours (in the last 3-4 years) in front of the computer trying to find the best formula-system to predict football outcomes. What havent i tried.....Poisson regressions, Indexes based on Form or Goals, Odds data analysis, Laying Hot Games, Odds Movements, 1X2 Volumes, Past games, or any other system posted on the internet etc. In my opinion nothing of this really works with brind eyes and there is no magic standard formula to get millions. I am sure all agree with me on this. There are only good and bad timing choices. Mostly i have worked with opening odds data analysis having historical data for many sportsbooks cause i believed (not so much any more) that all betting data (wheather, injuries, form, news, H2H, etc) are reflected with the odds. Now i believe betting odds and odds movements are nothing more than stock markets The best way to be better is to analyse our own choices-picks and try to find out what our mistakes. I tryed and i will always try new things and methods cause I see betting as a hobby and nothing more. I like always to challenge myself. So as a hobby i will post here some of the games that i am analyzing using a database of my local sportsbook. I have done many calibrations and validations in my educational life and also in betting and i dont believe that backtesting works on football. Yes is good method to analyse past games but not to predict the future of a football game. Every match must be seen as separate. I have no idea how this system will goes. I will try to post twice a week (compined games of 3-4 days period) Hints Every game has 1 unit Odds are average odds at the time the games are posted Estimations are based only on odds statistics from local sportsbook [TABLE=width: 500, align: center]

[TR] [TD=align: center]No[/TD] [TD=align: center]Date[/TD] [TD=align: center]Event[/TD] [TD=align: center]Pick[/TD] [TD=align: center]Av.Odd[/TD] [TD=align: center]Result[/TD] [TD=align: center]Win/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Santos Laguna - Cruz Azul[/TD] [TD=align: center]2 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.27[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Osters - Mjallby[/TD] [TD=align: center]2 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.26[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Vestsjaelland - Aarhus[/TD] [TD=align: center]1 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.96[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]4[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Vestsjaelland - Aarhus[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.99[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Vestsjaelland - Aarhus[/TD] [TD=align: center]BTS[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]27/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Grasshoppers - Aarau[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.51[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]7[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Ponte Preta - Santos[/TD] [TD=align: center]BTS[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.73[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]8[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Atlas - Club Leon[/TD] [TD=align: center]1 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.76[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]9[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Atlas - Club Leon[/TD] [TD=align: center]BTS[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.81[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]10[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Jaguares - Guadalajara[/TD] [TD=align: center]2 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Energie Cottbus - Paderborn[/TD] [TD=align: center]2-3 Goal[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]12[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Munich 1860 - FSV Frankfurt[/TD] [TD=align: center]X2 (DC)[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.08[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]13[/TD] [TD=align: center]28/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Munich 1860 - FSV Frankfurt[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.01[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]14[/TD] [TD=align: center]29/07[/TD] [TD=align: center]Mariehamn - TPS[/TD] [TD=align: center]1 (0 AH)[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.07[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] :notworthyGood Luck !!!

[Primevil]

Re: Estimations based on Odds Data of local book Yes good luck..will be a profitable thread IMO..