Each-Way value - does it exist?

[robertob]

Apparently I've too much time on my hands at the moment as I'm starting another thread. But after reading the each-way betting thread in the forum and often asking myself the question after I heard or read the buzzword Each-Way Value if such a thing exists and if I'd be able to find it and make a profit - as usually I'm a win only backer, but often thought about backing each-way, but then in a different way, with a different approach. So what I basically will do is, looking for horses that have a cracking chance to get placed at least, will I'll be using a mainly stats based approach. It won't be always the normal e/w bet, it can be also a split win and place bet on Betfair. Let's see how it fares - will be interesting to see after a while how win only and the ew/place bets compare to each other in terms of profit and ROI... 15.50 Newbury - Meritocracy: Big sprint but I really do like Meritocracy who looks progressive. He won a 3-runners race recently, he didn't beat much but the overall performance looked impressive and the time was decent. Before that he finished an excellent 2nd at Chantilly in a Stakes race to a horse that followed up with a 2nd place in Listed company. Meritocracy got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a maiden at Kempton, winning in really impressive style. There should be more to come and with 4 places 1/4 pay out at Bet365 it looks a good each-way bet to me. 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 16.20 Ripon - San Cassiano: Tough front-runner, who is back at his beloved Ripon. He's a three times course winner, and 2/2 over course and distance. He gets the fast ground he needs to be seen at his best, and it's likely that he gets a soft lead too. He won well in June here, didn't really confirm this form in two other starts at different tracks, but won of a 2lb higher mark in the past, so now back at Ripon, with the possibility of an easy lead, I feel he'll go very close and should be hard to see him out off the money. 2pts e/w @ 9/1 Skybet 16.50 Newmarket - Tax Free: Showed himself in good heart in recent weeks, won well here at Newmarket, followed up with another cracking display in a big sprint Handicap, and ran pretty well in other races this year, was also unlucky on a couple of occasions. Drops down in grade today again, goes off the same mark as lto, absolutely loves this track, with four wins from eight races, Ryan Moore booked another plus. Fancy him for the win but he should really be placed at least. 2pts win @ 5/1 Betfred 4pts place @ 1.12/1 Betfair 17.25 Ripon - Cracking Choice: Still a maiden, but ran a couple of good races, steps up 6f today, and got placed on his tries over this trip so far. Young apprentice Connor Beasley does really well for his 7lb claim, he's a 22% strike rate together with trainer M. Dods and they did particularly well here at Ripon this season with two winners from three runs. This is a really poor maiden Handicap, but Cracking Choice didn't run too badly in recent weeks and should have a good chance to go very close here. 1pt win @ 12/1 VC 2pts place @ 2.8/1 Betfair

[robertob]

Re: Each-Way value - does it exist? Not really the start I hoped for. Tax Free was the best, finished a half lengths beaten 2nd. San Cassiano finished 4th, Cracking Choice wasn't too far off a placing as well, while Meritocracy had no chance. What I find utterly annoying, now when I really look at each way betting the first time with purpose, that so often you see fields of eight or nine runners getting down to seven runners because one or two horses pulling out late, which makes each-way betting absurd. Have to monitor this closely. If I see this is the norm and affects my results, I'll rather stop this soon. So far, it's just a test... 19.00 Haydock - Bollin Greta: The eight year old mare ticks many right boxes. she loves the fast ground, she is proven over this trip (3 wins + 54.50% Place rate), she won well on her penultimate trip at Doncaster, stepped in class, was probably found out for this lto, but is down in a class 4 Handicap again and also gets 2lb off her mark. This looks an open race, and I think she has an excellent chance to finish in the money. 1pt win @ 12.5/1 Betfair 3ps place @ 5/2 Betfair 20.45 Lingfield - Just Darcy: Lightly raced filly, ran a big race at Windsor lto, looked the winner 1f out but then didn't quite stay the trip and drop in distance might suit. Her sire has a 15.60% strike rate over this trip at Lingfield (41% placed) while Sir Michael was very successful sending horses to Lingfield's All-Weather track this year. Padd Dobs booked looks significant as if he's booked for Stoutes horses it often results in a win. Open race this, but Just Darcy looks to have plenty in her favour and should go close. 2pt win @ 11/2 VC 5pts place @ 1.24/1 Betfair