All-Weather specialisation thread

[robertob]

Wanna try something new as i have a bit of time on hand. I've always been interested in Southwell, but in terms of eye-catchers - which is my main approach in finding winners - doesn't work too well there, so I need or want at least to find something else that gives me an edge or something to get a grip on that track anyway. So I'll be interested how this thread might go, it'll be mainly stats and figures focused, in terms of sire stats in particular probably, but usual things like visual performance still remains a big part of course. --- Tuesday, 09/07/13 --- 18.35: Boston Alex @ 11/2 Betfair - 2pts win + She Can Jig @ 6/1 StanJames - 2pts win I'm keen to take on the short favourite as it'll be his first start at Southwell and I think there is tough opposition in this field. Boston Alex looks a real thread. She had only one start to date, at Lingfield turf a couple of weeks ago. She bounced out off the gates that day, travelled well in prominent position, sharing the lead for a long time and just weakened inside the final half furlong but also didn't get a hard race. Interesting: Her sire Baltic King has a 46.20% strike rate at Southwell, and even 60% of his offspring won here over the 5f trip! So the switch to the fibresand is well worth a try for Boston Alex. Another interesting runner here is the Dutch Art filly She Can Jig. She had two starts to date, ran with loads of credit on her debut at least, and the switch to the fibresand looks in her favour too. Dutch Art's strike rate is 23.30% here, which increases to 50% over 5f. Also the trainer/jockey combo is quite a successful one, with over 37% strike rate at Southwell. So the booking of Makin looks significant. 19.35: Bapak Muda @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win + My Gigi @ 13/1 Betfair - 1pt win Bapak Muda could be really hard to beat here I feel. He's a lightly raced colt, who showed a bit of promise in a Catterick maiden earlier this year, but flopped on Handicap debut. That run is probably best to ignore and of a low enough mark he's very dangerous switching to the Southwell fibresand for the first time. His sire as a 32.10% strike rate here and the successful Ryan/Makin combo (37.10% SR @ Southwell) looks to have a big chance to win this poor race. There is one other runner I really like though. My Gigi doesn't make too much appeal on first glance maybe, but is very interesting stepping up in trip and even more so for her first start at Southwell. She has a bit of maiden form, when finishing 3rd in a decent race a couple of weeks ago, but couldn't confirm the promise in handicaps. She's down to a good mark now though and her sire Medicean has a 21% strike rate over the 1m trip here. Jockey/trainer combo with 32% strike rate at Southwell, so overall My Gigi probably with a better chance than the price might suggest. 20.05 Hannahs Turn @ 16/1 Betfair - 1pt win Not sure why this is such a huge price as it doesn't make sense really. Might say something about Hannahs Turn's chance here today but I can't leave her unbacked as Hayley Turner is booked for the ride and she has a phenomenal 75% strike rate with trainer CA Dwyer. The majority of their success came with Hannahs Turn, who is 4 from 4 at Southwell and she won with authority over 6f a couple of weeks ago when the last time seen here. She disappointed in her two subsequent start at Wolverhampton and Windsor but is now back at Southwell and also down in grade again. I don't think the 7f trip will be an issue and she can easily outran her price I think.

[robertob]

Re: Southwell specialisation thread Wasn't exactly the start I hoped for. The finish in the 7.35 was a really cruel one. My two selections looked to make it up between them on the 2f marker, miles clear of the rest of the field, I was counting my money already, but then they got tired and in the final couple of yards a horse from behind stayed on and stole it. Hannahs Turn didn't stay the 7f trip it appeared today, Boston Alex and She Can Jig were finishing 3rd and 4th. So -9pts after the first day...