Trainers Favourites

[skylark2009]

Time to start a thread I think. I'll be using a methodical approach (given below) to the selections. So reasoning (if any) in each post will limited. Reasoning - Backing trainers favourites A simple selection method of backing any trainer who has a good strike rate when runners started favourite at the course and their runners today are likely to start favourite. *Time constraints though, mean I'll likely put up selections that drift out of favouritism or are superceded by others coming into favouritism (original selections will stand though).* Staking - Level Profits I'll be using 'level profits' to determine the stakes to be bet, with the target profit being set at 5pts (or 5% of a 100pt bank). Max bet will be set at 5pts @ evens, so odds on selections will return less than 5pts of profit and selections bigger than evens will have reduced stakes. With a 100pt bank, this should allow 20 consecutive losers before busting the bank. I may increase the target profit if the bank reaches 200pts, 400pts etc. but it will still only be set at 5% of the bank at that point.

[skylark2009]

Re: Trainers Favourites First bets. 2.15 Market Rasen - Killala Quay 5pts @ 4/6 @ Paddy Power (BOG) 4.00 Ayr - Joshua The First 1.25pts @ 4/1 Stan James (BOG) 4.15 Market Rasen - First In The Queue 0.91ptS @ 5/1 Stan James (BOG) Just to clarify the reasoning - Killala Bay - trainer Charlie Longsdon has an SR of 58.82% (10 winners from 17) in the last 5 years when his runners start favourite. Joshua The First - trainer Keith Dalgleish has an SR 41.67% (5 winners from 12) in the last 5 years when his runners start favourite. First In The Queue - trainer Nicky Henderson has an SR of 60% (12 winners from 20) in the last 5 years when his runners start favourite) NB - At the time of posting, Joshua The First is currently flip flopping with Wellingrove for favouritism, (ideally the choice to bet should be finalised as close to the race time as possible.)