Adrian Massey

[crueser]

Just looking at the Adrian Massey site last night, if youre not familiar you can input criteria and get results for 12 month periods going back ten years. Last night I was looking at anything under 2.8 digital odds and how they performed over a 12 month given period. On every occasion for a £100 back bet on all favorite selections you would be down £22,000 for the year, now surely if you layed them all you would be up £22,000? In all years the maximum liability would be ten times your stake, this is the exception and not the rule, once you are in profit you stay in profit, trying it today with small stakes, if the pattern is correct I expect to be in the red for 5-15 days, after that its all profit, anyone tried this?

[Karijini]

Re: Adrian Massey You need to factor in the 5% commission on the exchanges for which over this many selections may outweigh the potential gains. You can work this out by factoring it in. As an example 10,000 selections 3,500 win 6,500 lose Your profit would be 6,500 * .95 to factor in 5% commission on each successful lay. This comes to 6,175 so it would be a matter of now working out your loss on the 3,500 wins to see if they are less than the potential profit. That 225 points may be the difference between a profit and loss. Also it is possible to make a loss whether you back or lay a selection criteria. A system that is making loss laying will not automatically mean that by now backing that you will come into profit. This is all due to the commission on the exchange and you should never underestimate the power of 5% even though it sounds relatively small. An example from the last 20 days or so: UK Favourites 768 selections 265 wins Backing at BSP = 15.82 profit Laying at BSP = -68.28 loss UK 2nd Favourites 768 selections 163 wins Backing at BSP = -4.03 loss Laying at BSP = -57.83 loss UK 3rd Favourites 768 selections 102 wins Backing at BSP = -52.15 loss Laying at BSP = -13.46 loss Hope that helps.