Federico Backs the Horses 2013

[FedericoBTH]

Finally I have time (this time for real) to keep my own thread with all my daily selections. Each tip will be explained and I'll do a quick recap, not only results/stats based, at the end of each day. 3.50 YORK ODOOJ 18/1 0.5pts E/W (BetVictor #BOG) I usually avoid placing bets on big field races but Odooj was in my notebook and I was waiting for today's conditions. He'll run in Class 2 company for the first time since handicapped and he's stepping back to 6f after a quite disappointing couple of efforts over 7f. Excusing these last two races due to bad conditions it must be said that he could really have won here when second in a Listed race last October but an awful exit from the stalls took away from him every chance to be fresh on crucial stages. Better ground should suit (his best results were collected on good to firm). The horse form should be good considering Haggas period; trainer also is 8/25 at the course with three years old. Paul Hanagan is a great jockey, very consistent. The big price, probably even bigger than expected, allows an e/w try with decent confidence: the gelding could easily be in the money past the post. 4.10 MUSSELBURGH KINGSCROFT 4/1 1pt Win (SportingBet) Big questions about his ability to win in a Class 2 Hcp (so far just two 2nds in 9 starts) and he seems to enjoy more soft ground lately but his experience (C&D winner) and his very low 84 mark compared to the rest of the field is promising. He looked shaped lto in Chester over 8f when 5 of 15 as a 10/1 outsider and if he keeps that form he'll be for sure in the mix. He seems progressing since his reappearance in late April so premises about that are good. 4.40 MUSSELBURGH ROYAL SKIES 8/11 1pt Win (SportingBet) If still I have doubts about Kingscroft in the previous race there's no questions about Royal Skies big chance to nail it for the Johnston-Fanning combo in such a small race (only 3 in the field, two of which are stablemates). There's no doubt Johnston sent Royal Skies as the chosen one and despity his ability is not questioned he'll weight 19lbs more than his rival Eric The Grey, who's anyway unraced over 12f and he's a complete ? after two straight blowout as a fav on shorter trips. Ground is good and trip ok too, don't like the price a lot but it is probably too much asking for a 4/5 in this situation.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Federico Backs the Horses 2013 Not a great day but I cut the losses with the shortest one of the trio winning easily (+£0.22 on the SP aswell). The biggest disappointment came from KINGSCROFT, who was held up and finished very far from the second group too. As I supposed this morning the good ground isn't (anymore) so suitable as a soft one. ODOOJ finished eighth in the highlited race of the day, a very good handicap sprint actually, but he didn't was too bad judging by his running on the far side, he simply had not enough to be in the mix at least for the money. The horse remains in my notebook as it was an extremely high quality race and I'm sure he could win a less tougher race with a further drop in the OR. Every animal involved in this one should be noted (especially Hasopop). ROYAL SKIES travelled very well throughout all the race and just win maybe even 2f out when Fanning watched back for the first time and Vermont was almost eased down by Fallon. A lot of room to improve of course for this at least Class 3 animal which finally found his best distance. Selections: 3 Wins: 1 StrikeRate: 33.33% Profit/Loss: -£ 1.273 Yield: - 42.42%