Max2112 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 .. or more accurately Polish Middles (betting on something not to happen) With arbers getting sniffed out and banned/limited by the soft books I thought that by doing Polish Middles was a slightly better way of staying under the radar for longer because you are not backing their over priced horses etc For the people who don't know a middle is an arb where you usually make a small loss in the hope that you find the middle and win on both bets (back over 3 goals and under 3 goals and if there is exactly 3 goals you are paid out on both) Polish middles are the opposite - for example back home team AH (0) and the away win and you win if either team wins and lose around 50% your total stake if there is a draw (loss is around 2-3 times your potential profit but the profit can be 5 or 6 times what you usually get on a arb) so in theory a long term profit maybe a better way of showing what I mean http://oddspredator.com/polishmiddles/calculator/2013/1.87|3.08.html?half=ft&matchid=258032&bid=13206030 Looking for anyone who has tried this to either confirm it's viable or to shoot me down if its not (nicely :D) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Whether you make a profit or loss depends on the odds you are effectively offering on the draw.For example,suppose you stand to lose three times as much if there is a draw as you win if there is a home or away.Then if the real chance of a draw is less than one in three you will wind up winning,and if it is more you will eventually lose. However,I cannot see you staying under the bookmakers' radar for long and still winning.The bookies now have software that tells them when they are offering top odds.The ones that close winning accounts are sensitive to players who only bet when they are offering top odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Chance of a draw is average of 28% over all the leagues - a lot of leagues were around the 22% mark last season and only the French and Argies are to be avoided (as in most things :D )making it nearer 25% - so a 75% strike rate will give a nice profit From what I remember from the CSE maths from 35 years ago we have 3 outcomes and each of those should have a 33.3% chance but in reality the draw has only a 25% chance so there should be some kind of value (someone put me right - I'm confusing myself :D) Looking at the website there seems to be a hell of a lot between SBObet and Pinny anyway so limits shouldn't come into it :) I'll give it a go using small stakes (£10 split between home and away) and see what happens :) First bet Niger (AH 0) £[email protected] (Pinny) v Burkina Faso away £5@ 2.50 (Corals) £2.19 profit (21.58%) if home or away win - £5.00 loss if a draw (away part lose, home part void) In theory I have a 66.6% chance of winning (75% in real terms according to the draw stats) but only a 50% loss if it loses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs You are effectively laying draw at 30.458%.However,the best offer anywhere for that draw is 3.1,which is 32.25 %. I'd wish you luck,except that I've bet the unders at half time in that game:p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs I'd wish you luck,except that I've bet the unders at half time in that game A 1-0 win with the goal in the 2nd half will suit us both :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs LOL - Injury time goal for Burkina Faso (according to FlashScores but 81st minute on Soccerway - Soccerway said that Niger only had 8 players though :D) - thank you Mr Pitroipa - real nailbiter for the first bet :cow FlashScores just changed time to 81st minute - I wondered why there was about 15 minutes injury time :D Also had a £5 arb @6.00 at Corals on the Draw/Burkina HT/FT :p 3 more - Lleida game just started [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: xl67]Colon de Santa Fe vs Atletico Rafaela[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, align: right]£9.90[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, align: right]£5.00[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right]29.13%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl67]Racing Club vs Boca Juniors[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, align: right]£5.71[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, align: right]£2.50[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]14.01%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl67]Lleida vs Real Jaen[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, align: right]£12.00[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, align: right]£7.00[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]28.91%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Columns are Home Stake, Away Stake and profit% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs I am not giving much chances for this strategy I am afraid because you pay margin twice. Lets take a look at your example: From first bet ( i mean this bet: First bet Niger (AH 0) £[email protected] (Pinny) v Burkina Faso away £5@ 2.50 (Corals) your results are: 1) Home Win: 7.2 2) Draw: 0 3) Away Win: -5.29 From second bet your results are: 1) Home Win: -5 2) Draw: -5 3) Away Win: 7.5 So overall your results are: 1) Home Win: +2.2 2) Draw: -5 3) Away Win: +2.21 So as AJ said, you are basically laying the draw. You can't just assume that probabilites of events is 33%/33%/33%. If you do not have your own method of estimating events, good idea is to calculate it from bookmakers odds as they are good at it and market helps to adjust the odds as time pass by. So If we convert bookmakers 1x2 odds into % chances, we get : 32% - 33% - 36% (this is amazingly very close to 33/33/33 but this is definately exception, not a rule). Anyway, now we have to multiply our potential reurns by chances of events, to calculate expected value of our bets. 1) Home win is 2.2 * 0.32 2) Draw is -5 * 0.33 3) Away Win is 2.21 * 0.36 This means your expected winning (well, lose actually) is £ -0.15 The only situation this "polish middle" is profitable is when you estimate chance of a draw as only 30.5%. But at this point we made a whole circle because in order to know that you would need to be able to estimate percentage chances of teams you own way. And if you can do this well, you can be profitable by placing normal bets. And besides, if you know that draw has 30% expectation but bookmakers give it 33% chance, you would be much better off laying draw at Betfair when you pay margin once, than to create this exotic middles. I am sorry if my posts is disapointing for you buy maybe I will at least help you save some precious time ;) Good luck anyway! [TABLE=width: 192] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Time will tell - if you look at the stats most leagues have a draw percentage of less than 25% TBH I don't think you are factoring in the void part if there is a draw - otherwise you would get nowhere near a 21.5% return as in the first bet :) I'll keep posting the results for anyone who is interested and we'll see where we are after 50 bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs If draw percentage is ~ 25% then bookmakers' odds is ~ 4.00, they are not stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs ... and if the chance of a draw is 25% (or 4.00) they will give you 3.6 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Well,the bet won in a way that suited us both:clap.Bazz,the trouble is that the market will only let you lay the draw at ,say,3.2 when it thinks the draw is a 3.1 chance - Zbrochu is right about that.So I can't see the bet paying off in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs 2nd bet lost with a 90th minute equaliser :( Loss of £13 Total -10.81 early days :) 3rd bet lost to an 87th minute goal :$ Loss 9.95 Total -20.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2112 Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Forgot to update this :D Fourth bet went in but still a loss of £17 over 4 bets Disappointing thing was not the losers but how late the goals went in - could so easily have been 100% S/R with a bit more luck ... and the ref blowing for time 5 minutes early :D Will go back to this when the football season starts properly and maybe limit bets to leagues with less than a 25% chance of a draw and also if over 2.5 goals is higher than 2.5 per game - more average goals mean less chance of a 0-0 so you really only worry about a score draw - both losers would have been a non-qualifiers but so would one of the winners (but the smallest potential profit of the four at 14%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArisB Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Re: Middles rather than arbs Middles/Polish middles are a good strategy, but demand strict discipline on money management. They are, in effect, value bets. However, you have to expect limits/bans when you start winning :(. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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