Middles rather than arbs

[Max2112]

.. or more accurately Polish Middles (betting on something not to happen) With arbers getting sniffed out and banned/limited by the soft books I thought that by doing Polish Middles was a slightly better way of staying under the radar for longer because you are not backing their over priced horses etc For the people who don't know a middle is an arb where you usually make a small loss in the hope that you find the middle and win on both bets (back over 3 goals and under 3 goals and if there is exactly 3 goals you are paid out on both) Polish middles are the opposite - for example back home team AH (0) and the away win and you win if either team wins and lose around 50% your total stake if there is a draw (loss is around 2-3 times your potential profit but the profit can be 5 or 6 times what you usually get on a arb) so in theory a long term profit maybe a better way of showing what I mean http://oddspredator.com/polishmiddles/calculator/2013/1.87|3.08.html?half=ft&matchid=258032&bid=13206030 Looking for anyone who has tried this to either confirm it's viable or to shoot me down if its not (nicely :D)

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: Middles rather than arbs Whether you make a profit or loss depends on the odds you are effectively offering on the draw.For example,suppose you stand to lose three times as much if there is a draw as you win if there is a home or away.Then if the real chance of a draw is less than one in three you will wind up winning,and if it is more you will eventually lose. However,I cannot see you staying under the bookmakers' radar for long and still winning.The bookies now have software that tells them when they are offering top odds.The ones that close winning accounts are sensitive to players who only bet when they are offering top odds.