Jumo Racing 7th June

[Darran]

Another hunter chase season is about to end which always makes me sad, but what a way to end as there really is some top quality racing at Stratford tonight and the battle between the Irish trio in the big one bids to be something pretty special. 5.55 Himalayan Express – Was well behind Marky Bob over 2m7f here in April, but turned that form around when causing a shock at Cheltenham last month when beating him by 5L at 50/1. I would ignore his last run at Newton Abbot as he was really badly handicapped. On the Cheltenham run he obviously holds strong claims, but I am not sure he will repeat that effort here so I will take him on. Marky Bob – Has had a frustrating campaign finishing 2^nd to That’s Rhythm, Presentandcorrect, Himalayan Express and a very close 3^rd to Moon Over Miami at Southwell last time. It seems that in this sort of company he struggles to stay so this short of test should suit him better than the other races have this season. Even so he I just wonder if he is better at bossing lesser horses and you just wonder if something might come and collar him again. Arumun – Pulled up behind Moon Over Miami at Southwell and no chance. Intac – Clearly lacks the stamina to win points and faded into 4^th over 2m4f at Ludlow last time behind Rebel Alliance. Don’t think this drop in trip will be enough to see him score. Moon Over Miami – Another who doesn’t stay in points, but proved he still has a fair amount of ability when winning at Southwell last time, despite the fact his jockey/trainer/owner Drew Holmes celebrating victory before the winning post. It was a good effort, but he got outpaced that day before staying on again so I am not sure this drop in trip is ideal. Clearly him and Marky Bob are very closely matched, but at this trip Marky Bob might just reverse the form. Overlut – Bidding to win this race for the third time after scoring in 2009 and last year. He won a Ladies Open last month after being forced off the track since disappointing at Warwick in March as he had a virus. You have to have him on the shortlist given his record in this race, but on paper this looks a hotter renewal than those two so it will be tough for him to win it again. Rebel Alliance – A really interesting contender for me. He ran at Ludlow on his hunter chase debut back in February finishing 5^th in a race that has worked out pretty well. He had done well in points after that and then won back at Ludlow last month when just holding on by a head. Crucial for me that day was the fact Adam Johns was taking the ride for the first time and he gave him a good ride leading for most of the way. This race is stronger and I imagine he will probably sit in behind Marky Bob, but this slightly shorter trip round here looks like it will be ideal for him. Saphir Des Bois – Returned from over 600 days off to absolutely bolt up at Leicester back in March. Beat What Of It that day who has gone onto frank the form since. He has only been seen once then when unseating in a point in April. He has won a handicap off 132 in the past and that Leicester win showed he still held plenty of ability. This must have been the target and although he wouldn’t want the ground too quick I think he should be able to get away with underfoot conditions. Cedrus Libani – A quirky sort who although tends to actually consent to race now, does still give away ground at the start as he did at Fontwell last time when finishing 2^nd to What Of It. If he does that here he won’t get away with it and on that form it is hard to see him finishing in front of Saphir Des Bois. Delta Borget – Pretty consistent, but very one-paced and even though he is down in trip again I don’t think it will make a difference. Very hard to see him winning and this race is tougher than the races he usually runs in. Earl Grez – Still a maiden and well beaten in an awful hunter chase at Fontwell last time. Extra Bold – Had a reasonable season and ran well enough at Wincanton on his last hunter chase start, but would be a bit of a surprise winner for me. Fairwood Present – Should have been retired already and hopefully he makes it back safe and sound. Hopefully this will be his last race as he is firmly on the downgrade. Kikos – Ran a fair enough race at Fontwell when just behind Cedrus Libani but hard to see him reversing that form. Mrs Peacock – Managed to win a Hereford handicap hurdle off a mark of 69 last year and ran ok in points this season, but nothing to suggest she will win this. Summary – This is the most competitive hunter chase of the night. Overlut certainly has claims to win this for a 3^rd time, but I think this is his toughest ask yet. Marky Bob is almost certain to run his race and he should be in the first 3, but at the same time I can’t help thinking something will overtake him late on. I was really impressed with Saphir Des Bois and although the ground is a slight concern I think he has a solid chance. I also like Rebel Alliance and although this is tougher than Ludlow this slightly shorter trip will be right up his street and his good young jockey is a plus. Tip – Saphir Des Bois Alternative – Rebel Alliance e/w (Marky Bob could be worth backing in the place market) 6.55 That’s Rhythm – Has had a great couple of seasons since moving to points and hunter chases including a great 2^nd to Salsify in the Horse & Hound Cup last year. He has been in great form this season and has already won two races for new connections as his old owner had to sell him so he could buy a house! Last time out he won his 7^th race at Bangor and was really impressive in doing so. His win at Kingston Blount though is more interesting in regards to this race as he beat Description by 2L and Lady Myfanwy by a further 20L. The time was really quick and I think he will be hard to beat here. Impact Zone – Was a well beaten 7^th when this race was held at Cheltenham last year and although he has been running well this season and was a fair 2^nd at Southwell last time he shouldn’t be good enough to win this. Playing The Field – 3^rd in two hunter chases the last twice, but behind Impact Zone the last time and won’t be good enough. Miss Saffron – Won a handicap chase at Worcester last year off a mark of 97 and won the second of his point starts after falling on his point debut. He doesn’t look the strongest stayer in the world and his form is below that of the market leaders. Description – Has had a touch of seconditus this season, but has still managed to win a couple of Ladies Opens. His best run was that 2^nd to That’s Rhythm a couple of starts back, but on that run I am not sure how he is going to reverse the form here. Also his jumping has always been a massive issue over Rules fences and he has fallen in all 3 hunter chase starts. That has to be a big concern for anyone wanting to back him. Peplum – Race he won a couple of starts back was very bad and was well behind Description last time. Rathcor – I thought he would never win a race ever again, but he shocked me as I saw him win at Chaddesley Corbett last time. It wasn’t a great race though as the favourite disappointed and he only had to beat a non-stayer in the end. He might plug on for a place, but shouldn’t be good enough to win. Special Occasion – Has won points this season, but that form not as strong as others here and more importantly he hasn’t gone a yard on his last two starts which would be a massive concern for anyone wanting to back him. Swift Counsel – Has won all bar won of his 6 points, his only defeat coming on his pointing debut when beaten by Rathcor. Has won both starts this season, but neither performance was anything special and last time he was all out to beat On Borrowed Wings at Chaddesley Corbett. That form is not good enough to win this. He does get weight from his main rivals, although he doesn’t exactly run as he needs this 3m4f trip. Lady Manfanwy – A grand servant over the years and does like it here at Stratford which I always find crucial, but given how far she was behind That’s Rhythm and Description at Kingston Blount it is hard to see her winning this although it wouldn’t be a surprise if she hit the frame. Knight Blaze – Was a shock winner of a qualifier for this 11 days ago beating Little Miss Monty by 25L. That wasn’t a strong race though and all of her other form suggests she has plenty on her plate here. Little Miss Monty – Has no chance. Summary – It is hard to see anything but a That’s Rhythm win here. He was the best of these during his Rules career and even at the age of 13 he has proven in the last two seasons that he still retains a fair amount of that ability. Description rates his biggest danger, but even if he gets round I am not sure how he can reverse the Kingston Blount form. Lady Myfanwy or Rathcor could be in with a shot of hitting the frame. Tip – That’s Rhythm NAP 7.25 Adept Approach – Did the business for us at Fontwell on his first hunter chase start, but he was arguably slightly lucky to win with his main rival unseating at the last when still just in front. As much as I like the horse and hope he runs well for the South East, this is much tougher than that Fontwell race and I can’t see him winning. Artic Pride – Ran well on his hunter chase debut to finish an 18L 4^th to Harbour Court at Cheltenham. He has actually been disqualified from that placing as his jockey should not have claimed 3lbs that night. He went onto win at Market Rasen, but it wasn’t much of a race and although he is capable of running well again and certainly looks as if he stays well, I don’t see how he can reverse form with Harbour Court. Ballyjames – Looks to have been massively flattered by his close 2^nd to That’s Rhythm at Bangor as he was pulled up behind Harbour Court at Cheltenham and then only just won a weak point at 2/5 a few days later. Hard to see him being involved here. Bleuvito – Ran pretty well in this race last year to finish 4^th, but he didn’t see the trip out and has shown this season that he remains a very hard ride. The booking of Will Biddick is a huge plus and if anyone can keep his mind on the job it’s him, but he won’t be able to make him stay which is his main problem. Books Review – Pulled up in this last year and has struggled for form this season. Charles Bruce – Caused a massive shock when winning the 4 miler at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night, just beating Special Portrait. That was a big effort and his talented young jockey Charlie Deutsch was a big part in that win. I can’t help thinking there are better classier animals in this and the fact Charlie, as good as he is, can’t claim is a negative. We know he stays well though so might be capable of sneaking into the frame. Findlay’s Find – Was a fair third in this race last year and has usual we have seen plenty of him this season. He finally got a deserved hunter chase win at Bangor when beating Time Gentlemen, but looked a very hard ride as he did when 2^nd to Hawkeye Native at Chepstow. No doubt he will stay on again after dropping himself out, something he didn’t have enough time to do at Newton Abbot in his last hunter chase start. Hard to see him going two better this year given his style of running as I don’t think he is good enough to make up the ground. Hambledown Tor – His jumping has left a lot to be desired on his three chase starts to date and he was a disappointing 3^rd at Newton Abbot last time. That form not good enough here and his poor jumping won’t help him. Harbour Court – Had looked a very good horse in points the last couple of seasons and connections patience paid off when he looked really impressive when winning the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last month. That success was only his 6^th career start and the only time he was beaten was when he was just beaten by a very good horse in Woodview Prince and he suffered minor ligament damage that day as well. Given his lack of experience that Cheltenham effort looks even better and if there is one horse in this country who might challenge the likes of Salsify in the Foxhunter next season this could be the one. Hawkeye Native – Caused a pretty big shock when winning on his hunter chase debut at Chepstow when easily beating Findlay’s Find. Proved there was no fluke about that success when beating Foxhunter 2^nd Divine Intavention by just under 3L at Fontwell last month. He showed a good attitude that day and deserves to take his chance here. King Of Alcatraz – Was one of the bets of the hunter chase season when he won on his hunter chase debut at Exeter. He was pretty impressive that day but it is fair to say it wasn’t a strong race. He ran in a point on Bank Holiday Monday but was hampered and fell at the first. I don’t think he is quite up to winning this and his jockey can’t use her 7lbs claim which is a pretty big negative in a race like this. Ned The Post – Has had a pretty decent season in points and won a Mens Open 12 days ago at Kingston Blount in a quick time as well. He looks up to winning a hunter chase but his form doesn’t look quite as strong as some of these and I struggle to see him being good enough to win this. Rumbavu – The blinkers go on Rumbavu for the first time to replace the cheekpieces he has been wearing. He has won his last two points but was unimpressive at Upper Sapey last time and the form of his three hunter chase runs are below what is required here. I also think a sharp track doesn’t bring out the best in him. Schindler’s Prince – Looked a really good prospect last season, but has gone the wrong way this term. His third at Leicester wasn’t too bad, but his other efforts have been poor and he was a well beaten 7^th at Ludlow last time. Time Gentleman – Ran a good race to finish 2^nd to Findlay’s Find at Bangor and has since won a point at Tabley. Certainly think he can win a hunter chase at some stage, but not sure it will be this as I am not sure he will see the trip out. Chosen Milan – Was a bit of a shock to see her finish 3^rd behind Harbour Court at Cheltenham on his hunter chase debut last month. Think the jockey change to Adam Johns was a big factor in that although he can’t claim his 7lbs here which leaves her with even more to find with the winner especially as he failed to stay at Cheltenham. Summary – To me this looks between Harbour Court and Hawkeye Native. I certainly have massive respect for Hawkeye Native and he looks on the upgrade, but Harbour Court looks to have the potential to be a top class horse and he really was impressive at Cheltenham. If he is in the same form here I think he will be very hard to beat. Of the others I think the proven stamina of Charles Bruce might see him hit the frame. Tip – Harbour Court Alternative – Hawkeye Native (e/w if price allows) and Charles Bruce e/w 8.30 Chapoturgeon – We know he still has plenty of ability having finished 2^nd to Salsify in last year’s Cheltenham Foxhunter and then winning very easily at Newbury this season, as well as landing the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Newton Abbot last time carrying a huge weight. The ground went against him at Cheltenham this season so I would ignore that effort. The trip is an obvious question mark, but I think he will stay it round here as Stratford isn’t much of a stamina test, the bigger question I have is if he can reverse form with Salsify and I don’t see him being able to do that. Coombe Hill – Usuall gives his running, but was disappointing when a 48L 4^th to Rumbury Grey at Cheltenham last time. Has been well beaten in the John Corbet Cup in the past as well so hard to see him troubling the judge here. Drom – Loves quick ground as he proved when winning at Kelso recently. That form though is nowhere near good enough to land this. Can see him making the running though. Keenan’s Future – Was a bit disappointing at Aintree last time when well behind What A Laugh and Rumbury Grey having shown promise on his two previous runs. Hard to see him reversing form with those two let alone beating some of the more fancied horses. Mossey Joe – The first of three very exciting runners from Ireland. He started his life by winning a couple of points and a maiden hunter chase. He was then sent over hurdles and won a Grade 3 at Cork and finished 2^nd in a Grade 2 at the Punchestown Festival. He was then sent chasing won his first two and then became a little disappointing. Connections then took the decision to go back hunter chasing with him and what a great decision that looks. He unseated at the 2^nd at Leopardstown, but has then gone onto win his next three. He wasn’t overly impressive in the 2^nd of those wins at Cork, but the other two wins were very impressive and he put in his best effort yet at Killarney last time winning by 28L. This is the furthest he has gone yet, but given he settles a lot better than he used and the fact he doesn’t seem to be stopping in his races suggests that will be fine. The ground shouldn’t be an issue either as he has won on good ground before. Has a big chance and will be fascinating to see if he can beat Salsify. Presentandcorrect – A really likable horse who has been profitable for us this season. He ran a really gallant race in defeat last time to Chapoturgeon. The problem is he was getting nearly 2 stone that day and it is level weights today. Another issue is the trip as I think he is better of slightly shorter. He looks more likely to finish mid division than actually getting in the frame, but that will still be a good effort. Rosies Peacock – Has won his last three points but that form , along with his Rules form, is a fair way below what will be needed here. Rumbury Grey – Have backed him every time he has won this season apart from when he went and won at Cheltenham. That was his best effort by a fair way this season as in his other races he just hasn’t really found a lot for pressure. He won the John Corbet last season in great style and I do think winning form around here is a big factor, but that is the only case I can make for him and I have to pass him over. Salsify – One of the best hunter chasers we have seen for a long time. He has won 9 hunter chases including 2 Cheltenham Foxhunter’s, two Champion Hunters Chase’s at Punchestown and he won this race last year in impressive style. Obviously he got lucky at Cheltenham this year and I Oscar Delta clearly wasn’t the same horse when well behind him at Punchestown last time. Even so Salsify still hacked up and for the first time this season he has the decent ground he needs. Not surprisingly he is the one they all have to beat. Surenaga – Was pretty keen on him in this race in 2011 when he was still going very well when falling three out. Was impressive when beating Rumbury Grey by 14L at Ludlow and would have won at Cheltenham after that had his jockey not fallen off 2 out. Was a bit flat at Bangor last time even though he finished second to That’s Rhythm. If at his best he might sneak into the frame, but it is hard to see him being good enough to win. Tammys Hill – Has proven himself to be one of the best hunter chasers in Ireland and deserves a crack at one of the big ones for the first time. He managed to beat Salsify a couple of times at the start of the season only for the form to be reversed at Leopardstown. I don’t think Salsify was quite at his best on those occasions though and the testing ground would have been more in Tammys Hill favour. He has won on good ground, but my feeling is he only beat Salsify because it was testing ground and I don’t think he will finish in front of him on better ground. Vic Venturi – Would probably have won anyway at Uttoxeter last time, and if the ground had of been soft I might have fancied him to sneak a place, but his form this season isn’t good enough to win this, especially on quick ground. What A Laugh – Looks a bit of a bridle horse as he hasn’t needed to be put under any pressure to win his two hunter chases. Whenever he is asked for an effort he doesn’t seem to find much though which happened at Bangor last season and also when I saw him in the Lady Dudley Cup on his penultimate start. I will be shocked if he can win this on the bridle and looks opposable. Summary – What a race to end the hunter chase season and one of the best renewals of this race we have had for a while. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if the first three home were the Irish runners as all bar Chapoturgeon need to find some improvement from somewhere to hit the frame. I actually think Chapoturgeon can see the trip out well enough to hit the frame, but I don’t think he can win. Mossey Joe will be handy early and I suspect he will take up the running after a few fences from where it will be a case of can he see of the late challenge of Salsify? I am not sure he will and I fancy Salsify to overtake him in between the last two fences and assert on the short run-in. The other thing to factor in is that Mossey Joe’s jockey Damien Skehan is unable to claim his 7lbs and that is definitely in Salsify’s favour. Tip - Salsify

[Darran]

Re: Jumo Racing 7th June Sorry typo on the bloody thread title.