Flat Racing - Wednesday 22nd May

[robertob]

17.25 Greyville: Pomodoro @11/2 - 3pts e/w + Bravura @40/1 - 0.5pts e/w Sportingbet World class miler Variety Club is the clear 1/3 favourite. Personally I hope for a bold bid as I absolutely adore this horse. But betting wise it's a way too short price on his seasonal reappearance after resting for 19 weeks. There are much bigger targets on his agenda, on the domestic front with the big Group 1's over 1.400-1.900m and later the year abroad at the Breeders Cup. So it's quite easily to assume he'll be nowhere near full fitness for this Pinnacle Stakes race. That might make him vulnerable tomorrow. Therefore it's interesting to look elsewhere and I feel two horses are overpriced. One is clearly Pomodoro, one of the highest rated horses in the country, and with the reputation of a victory in South Africa's most important race, last years Durban July. He's back after a rest as well, after finishing 4th in the J&B Met in February. However big targets are awaiting sooner rather than later and he goes pretty well fresh. He's a winner from distances between 1.140m-2.450m - on Group level! That shows his class. He has speed and a wonderful turn of foot, fell short in his only clash with Variety Club though, in this years G1 Queens Plate over 1.600m, what was a controversial race however. Despite all the hustle with the false start (VC was only horse not to be inconvenienced) and a rough run, Pomodoro really challenged VC in the home straight, until the champ started the turbo 1f out and kicked away. Pomodoro still finished a strong 3rd, and one can only assume that with more luck in the race he would have come much closer. Variety Club and Pomodoro are much the best horses in this field, real class acts, true superstars, and it will be fascinating to see them tomorrow. I think Pomodoro has the class to beat VC on a good day, and might be the bit fitter anyway, he also has a good draw which should guarantee him to stay close to VC who will set very likely the pace. Everything is sett for a real test turning for home and I think it's absolute steel that Pomodoro finishes in the money here. That's why an unusual each-way bet for me for such a small price. But it's money back guarantee if VC proves too classy over this short trip. Second horse I feel is massively overpriced is Bravura. Can't really believe the 40/1 because he is a classy individual, always racing with top weight in the biggest races. He didn't win since November 2011, but then that was a Grade 2 over 1.800m. What is interesting: He was never unplaced over 1.400m yet, in three starts with 1 win and two placed efforts. His form in his last runs isn't too impressive, but in all fairness it was tough as in the Queens Plate he was badly affected by the false start as well as by in-running trouble, and in the J&B Met he finished the race well over a trip I feel is too far for him. A break probably will done him well and he goes well fresh anyway. He is one of the horses that could be prepared and really race fit for this here tomorrow. It's also noteworthy that Bravura was in November 12, in a similar race like this over 1.400m, the only horse that was able to follow Variety Club, despite dwelling at the start. He still had enough power to chase VC home to finish a strong 2nd less than two lengths beaten. That is an excellent piece of form and would give him every chance to finish in the money tomorrow. And if the two market principles aren't fully fit, he might capitalise on that. He's a better chance than the price suggest in my mind. Only worry is the wide draw. The rest I feel in this field should normally struggle of their big weights, even though Mujaarib has the potential to go well. 19.15 Greyville: Wagner @ 40/1 - 0.5pts e/w sportingbet I think Wagner will be primed like no other runner for this race. It should perfectly suit this gutsy front-runner, who stays a bit further than tomorrows 1.900m. He caused a huge upset in the Sansui Summer Cup last December, when he jumped from Handicap company into Grade 1 class to win one of the biggest races in the county with a wonderful game performance from the front as a huge long-shot. Wagner was at this point already a listed race winner and formerly thought to be a Derby horse, didn't really developed into that though. He has a great attitude however, as in the Summer Cup he was from 3f out under huge pressure, headed, yet he quickened again, getting the lead back to

in the end. He got a small break after that, had now already two further runs since then as a prep for this tomorrow, running over shorter trips than ideal, not very successful, but should be sharpen up now. This is a really competitive Grade 2 tomorrow, with a couple of really exciting horses, but Wagner might get an easy lead here once again, the wide draw wont be a problem I think. The so called top runners might be still one or two runs short of full fitness, and that might be Wagner's chance. Khumalo gets the ride again, who does particularly well on front-runners. In the end it really depends on the class of Wagner. Maybe he had this one day in his career, when he ran the race of his life. Maybe that took too much out of him, we'll see. He should be at his peak now though, and we'll find surly out how good he is. At 40/1 he's well worth a bet.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 22nd May 1.50 Southwell Jebel Tara may be worth taking on at a very short price given his track record he has had 3 tries on this surface and failed to pull up any trees in those starts and despite being at the top of his game at the moment this could be a stumbling block under a6lb penalty. Stall 13 might also be a little too wide. The one for me is Mucky Molly. She has really found her form recently having won here in March off a mark of 49, easy to excuse the next run when out of her depth in a seller and has been ultimately consistent on this surface since, again easy to excuse polytrack run on penultimate start. This mark just about requires a career best but may still have more to offer on the fibresand and is only 4lb above last winning mark. 2pt win Mucky Molly 9/2 bet365 4.20 Southwell Several specialist in this race and Our Ivor got back to winning ways last time out on Monday in good style but turned out very quickly again and a 6lb penalty now puts her on a mark of 78 which clearly demands a lot more than when she started on this season on a basement mark of 45. She does look yards first string but they also run The Lock Master who drops in class and back on this surface could go well but needs to bounce back from a dismal effort last time out. No Dominion looks the class act in the field, he was impressive at Thirsk last week continueing his upward curve in a competitive race. Has good record on this surface 2 from 3 and clearly has a lot more to give yet and will be better than most of these in time I feel, Graham Lee also appears to get on well with him with all 3 wins coming under him. Drawn 7 is a good draw around here should continue to go well. 2pt win No Dominion 3/1 boyles