BBOTD - Friday 17th May

[robertob]

16.15 Newbury: Autun @ 5/1 Bet365 Think it's easy to bring this race down to three or four runners with a chance. The favourite looks sure to be suited by the additional furlong tomorrow but might prefer even further as he looked quite one paced lto. I like the chance of Autun though who looks a shade too big in the betting market. There might be a few stamina worries as his dam was a Group 3 winner over 7f sired by a top class miler, but Autun's sire was a multiple Group winner, successful up to 12f as a Belmont Stakes winner. So I think there is at least a fair chance that he gets the trip and I thought he looked like a horse that wants further, when he won his maiden on the 2nd attempt over 1m last year. So I expect him to improve for the step up in trip. Interesting to see him fitted with a hood for the first time, as Cecil is doing really well with horses fitted with this sort of headgear. Also interesting that Autun's sire has a 33,33% strike rate at Newbury and an even better one on fast ground. Thankfully that sort of ground is expected at Newbury tomorrow. Henry Cecil is doing alright in recent weeks, but in combination with jockey Ian Mongan he is ruthless as this combo has a massive 45% strike rate this season. So it's fair to assume that Autun will be race fit tomorrow and a big run is expected.

[jinxy]

Re: BBOTD - Friday 17th May 2.15 York SAPTAPADI 20/1 Coral 1pt win I went in baw deep on this 1 in the Ebor 2 years ago when the bold Ellison highlighted him as his BBOD on the morning line only for his 2nd string to stoat at 25's. He ran well and was in amongst the placers about 2 out over 1m 6f at York but ran out of puff off a mark of 105. I bet him each way that day but I was on the only bookie NOT to pay 5 places! His only win came over 12f at Donny off a mark of 100 after a break. He races off 95 with a 3lb claimer on board tomorrow with a long absence. Revenge might be sweet?