Flat Racing - 10th of May

[robertob]

14.15 Chester: Contributer @ 15/8 Bet365 - 5pts win This lovely bred cold - by a Derby winner and out of a G3 winning mare - looked smart on his seasonal reappearance. He trailed a small field in a slowly run race but came from last to first to win the race with authority eventually. He looks a strong colt with plenty of improvement in him and this tomorrow is surly not the toughest Group 3 in the world. He has some more ambitious targets later the season and with his recent run under the belt he should strip fitter now so that this could be a stepping stone to more glory. I expect him hard to beat here. 20.15 Ascot: Rottingdean @ 12/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win Rottingdean had a horror run at Notthingham lto, as he was first slowly into stride, lost a good deal of ground as a result, made this up again though, but was pulling very hard then. He improved gradually his position through the race, was then however simply locked on the inside rail. He just couldn't get out, even at the 2f marker he had to wait and suffer. When a bit of space opened up over 1f out it was all to late but he finished the race as good as possible. This was his first start this year, after winning a maiden last November at Kempton in good style staying on very well that day. I do feel his mark of 76 is pretty lenient and he could turn out to be a much better horse than this. He should be fit and well with the recent run under his belt and the usual strong pace in competitive handicaps like this here tomorrow should really suit as there is loads of stamina on his dam side. He's lightly raced as well, so further improvement can be expected.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May 1.45 Chester Gandalak seems to tick every single box, low drawn, goes on the ground, improving horse, trainer/jockey in form, distance ok. Only around the 3/1 mark but could be a good start to the day and will try to make all. 2.15 Dee stakes Aidan O'brien has won this 3 times in 8 years and in 2 of those years didnt have a runner so 3 times in last 6 attempts at the race. His horse Magician is ridden again by Ryan Moore. Won on heavy in Ireland and eased last time when hampered. Should be better for the longer trip and O'brien doesnt bring rubbish here. Watch the market at this stage. Entered for the Derby whereas favourite Contrbutor is not. 2.45 Ormonde Stakes Again O'brien likes to win this also and last years winner Memphis Tennessee returns to attempt a follow up win. It looks like a match between Mount Athos and this one, Mount athos will be aimed at the Melbourne Cup and although the owner wants to win here also, the ground may have gone against it. 3.15 Chester Will the 10/1 be around for long for a horse drawn 2 who is likely to spring the stalls. Equitania has never won on turf and this is its best chance to date. Storm moon looks the danger and is well drawn. a nice yankee on those 4 i feel

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May 7.05 Ascot I am going to stick with Colonel Mak here. He has been a big handicap winner several times off a mark of 98. He had a quiet season after his handicap win at start of season, did bag a conditions race at Hamilton half way through. He has since been given a chance by the handicapper and there was slightly more life last time when travelling well at the front end before fading under a fairly kind ride. Handicapper dropped him yet another 2lb and has now dropped to a mark of 90 and has now dropped to lowest mark since 2010 and yard have been in the winners enclosure and Ryan Moore a strong booking surely has to go close. 1pt e/w Colonel Mak 11/1 coral

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May Im gonna put one up....as im shocked no one has spotted it! LINGFIELD TURF TODAY FAST GROUND!...massive advantage for speed horses drawn high...... FW at 11/4 is overpriced, will be up with the pace or very close to leading, banged back to form last time, david evans sends 1...HELLO!,,,horse is as fit as a flea. Point and shoot, given its a female race, if you aint up with the pace and close to that rail you aint winning! FW has made all in the past! One backstop....GREYFRIARS...is also overpriced for the ew 25/1...usually blasts out,,,and drawn 1 off the rail....yes I know he dont score on turf, but has run well off this mark to be placed...he will give it a go from this stall...worth a cover e/w...and maybe a FC.... Keep an eye on the other turf races for the advantage...which is bigger than chester IMO!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May 15:15 Chester

14:45 Kempton Mark Johnston's Storm Moon is the one I'm going to side with in this 5 runner handicap. Although his form doesn't look the most aspiring, he has been running in much better races so the drop down to a class 4 handicap for the first time should give him a chance to land his third victory. As a 2 year old he won his first two races both over today's minimum trip. He won on his debut at Musselburgh before going on to win on the all weather at Southwell. Possibly a bit out his depth in his next two races at Sandown and Ascot where he competed in a race at listed level and in a group 2. After a month and a half off the track he was sent to Thirsk for his handicap debut in a class 3 nursery race off a mark of 90 where he was only beaten a quarter of a length. The winner of this race hasn't really boosted the form as such but has only raced exclusively in races at listed and group level since so the horse is clearly high regarded. Storm Moon's next two races both came at Chester in class 3 nursery races over 5 and 6 furloungs where he was fairly well beaten in both races off marks of 93 and 92 respectively. Chester is a bit of a specialist track so in my opinion both those races can be excused. His final race of 2012 came at Redcar in a listed race over 6 furlongs where he finished 10/21, again he was well beaten but he wasn't fancied at all that day going off at 50/1 and probably a bit out his depth like his previous efforts in class 1 races. He made his reappearance last month at Newmarket, again over the 6 furlong trip in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 87. Once again he was well beaten finishing 9/15. I'm not totally certain he gets the six furlong trip considering his best form is clearly over the minimum trip where has won both his races over and he is dropped back down to that trip today, along with a fair drop in class which gives him a great opportunity to win this race. He is also dropped 2lbs down to a mark of 85 which is the lowest handicap mark he will have raced off of. His only other all weather run was at Southwell which is a different surface to Kempton but I'm fairly confident he won't have any trouble handling the conditions at this track. 3pt win Storm Moon @ 10/3 (Bet365 - BOG)

Wrote this about Storm Moon's victory on Monday where he ran out and one and half length winner. I was impressed by his manor of victory that day and althoug he is raised 6lbs for that effort and jumps back up into a class 2 race, he may just have needed a return to the winners enclosure to spark a good run of form. He has previously appeared at this course twice off marks of 92 and 93 (runs off 91 today), once over today's trip of 5 furlongs (where he's clearly best at having won 3 times over the trip) and once over 6 furlongs. He was beaten over four lengths on both occasions and although in my write up last time I said this was a bit if a specialist track and those runs could be ignored, I am willing to give him another chance at this course, especially from the plum draw in stall one. His three wins have come at sharp tracks so he's definitely worth another crack at this track which is very sharp. He certainly looks the type of horse who will improve as a 3 year old and with one win from two runs as a 3 year old I am expectin more from him this season. 2pt win Storm Moon @ 9/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May 3.15 Chester - 1pt win Jillnextdoor @ 12/1 (VC) It's difficult to assess this one's handicap mark as 12 of her 13 runs have come in non-handicaps with her debut in this sphere coming at Sandown last time out. On that evidence, you could say she looks handicapped out of matters but that's a little hasty I feel as plenty of her form in listed events etc suggest a mark of 90 shouldn't be out of her comfort zone. She had a wide draw to contend with at Sandown which is never ideal and for all I'd have liked to see her go a bit better, I think it could be worth forgiving her. She proved again that she has a good cruising speed that is necessary around here and her run at Bath two starts back was highly promising. She never got room to deliver a challenge so was allowed to come home in her own time ultimately but still wasn't losing any significant ground on the rest of the field at the line anyway! She must have gone well with a passage and that came in a listed race where 4 of the first 5 were rated in the 100s. The Channon team have been below par in the first couple of months or so of the season so there's another potential excuse but they had a winner here yesterday to give us a little confidence boost and his filly here is well drawn in stall 3. A good pace would help and I don't think the cut in the ground will really inconvenience. Hopefully can get a good position and go well. 3.50 Chester - 1pt win Kingscroft @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Naturally a berth in stall 11 isn't ideal for any horse at Chester but at least Mark Johnston's runner won't be absolutely desperate to get to the front and hopefully he can slot into a handy position. That will be half the battle but if he can get a decent sit then a big run could be on the cards. He's won here in the past off 4lbs higher and comes here shaping okay with conditions to suit him today. He's versatile with regards to the ground and is more than happy on a sharp course (winner here, at Musselburgh and Epsom). He's only had two runs this calendar year - the first at Wolverhampton in January when 3rd of 6 in a good race and then he had a bit of a prep for this last month at the same venue. He shaped well on his first start in over three months and that should have brought him on nicely. The drop back in trip is of no concern (6 of his 9 wins have come over 7f) and represents a top yard with plenty of winners on the board of late. Joe Fanning has a rock solid 16% strike rate at this tricky course and this 0-85 affair should prove to be within his comfort zone (his last turf run came in a 0-105).

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May

2.15 Dee stakes Aidan O'brien has won this 3 times in 8 years and in 2 of those years didnt have a runner so 3 times in last 6 attempts at the race. His horse Magician is ridden again by Ryan Moore. Won on heavy in Ireland and eased last time when hampered. Should be better for the longer trip and O'brien doesnt bring rubbish here. Watch the market at this stage. Entered for the Derby whereas favourite Contrbutor is not.

Spot on Bowles. Magician really impressive, looks a lovely prospect. :ok

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May

Im gonna put one up....as im shocked no one has spotted it! LINGFIELD TURF TODAY FAST GROUND!...massive advantage for speed horses drawn high...... FW at 11/4 is overpriced, will be up with the pace or very close to leading, banged back to form last time, david evans sends 1...HELLO!,,,horse is as fit as a flea. Point and shoot, given its a female race, if you aint up with the pace and close to that rail you aint winning! FW has made all in the past! One backstop....GREYFRIARS...is also overpriced for the ew 25/1...usually blasts out,,,and drawn 1 off the rail....yes I know he dont score on turf, but has run well off this mark to be placed...he will give it a go from this stall...worth a cover e/w...and maybe a FC.... Keep an eye on the other turf races for the advantage...which is bigger than chester IMO!

Jammy Guest 2.35..grabs the rails after 100 yards, 5/4 IR never in doubt.:ok

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th of May

Im gonna put one up....as im shocked no one has spotted it! LINGFIELD TURF TODAY FAST GROUND!...massive advantage for speed horses drawn high...... FW at 11/4 is overpriced, will be up with the pace or very close to leading, banged back to form last time, david evans sends 1...HELLO!,,,horse is as fit as a flea. Point and shoot, given its a female race, if you aint up with the pace and close to that rail you aint winning! FW has made all in the past! One backstop....GREYFRIARS...is also overpriced for the ew 25/1...usually blasts out,,,and drawn 1 off the rail....yes I know he dont score on turf, but has run well off this mark to be placed...he will give it a go from this stall...worth a cover e/w...and maybe a FC.... Keep an eye on the other turf races for the advantage...which is bigger than chester IMO!

Cover ew ended up 10/12nd....FW ran no sort of race after being cramped out of it,