Simmy's flat/jumps thread 2013

[StuSimmy]

Well for those of you that know me, I've decided to come back and have another crack at a thread for several reasons. This time I am going to combine the flat with the jumps (although I will seperate them in terms of stats in this thread as well). I think it was about two years ago my last one now and although I don't have as much time on my hands as I did years ago, I felt the time was right to set one up again. My main reason for this is to try and stay disciplined. Hope you all enjoy following and be good to see some familiar faces on here again. One on the flat tomorrow to kick things off. 15:05 Beverley As ever I am still a big fan of the Mark Johnston stable and he has made a solid start to the season. He goes into this double handed and it's pretty hard to weigh up which of the two is his preference and both are at the head of the market principles on the early prices. Stable jockey Joe Fanning has opted for Marshland which is also the one I will be siding with. He is the lightly raced one of the two (albeit only by one race) having had just the three runs to date. Marshland has the benefit from a run already this season having won a maiden race at his third attempt at Southwell over 6 furlongs in what was his first try at the trip. Despite still looking a bit green, the manner of victory that day was very impressive and although he went off the 1/2 favourite, he fairly justified that with a 7 length victory. Today he steps up to 7 furlongs for the first time and we all know that Johnston horses tend to relish stepping up in trip. A handicap mark of 78 is one he will certainly win off of in my opinion and hopefully that will be in this race. Main rivals: Shebebi makes his debut for Mark Johnston today having previously been with John Dunlop. Another horse who won at the third time of asking in ground which he should get here today. His last run can be ignored with the ground being against him and a drop of 2lbs in the handicap will only further his chances of landing this race. Hanagan taking the ride is interesting considering Fahey has a horse in the race (although he could be something to do with Al Maktoum, I could be wrong though). This now brings me to the Fahey horse Asgardella is interesting and Lee Topliss claiming 3lbs will obviously enhance the chances of this horse. The horse takes a step down in class and the stable is flying at the minute so she has to be a big danger to the Johnston pair, especially since she won first time out last year which shows she can go well fresh. Her 2nd placed finish on just her second start at York last year is a nice little piece of form in the book and if she can run to that standard in this race then she could take all the beating. Should be an interesting little race and it's quite hard to rule any of them out but in saying that I will be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of the above three and wouldn't be surprised to see them fill the first three places. 5pt win Marshland @ 5/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's flat/jumps thread 2013 Poor performance from Marshland today and typical that the other Johnston runner wins the race, it was well backed though having been a bigger price than Marshland when I tipped it up last night yet went off 5/4 favourite whilst my selection drifted out to 7/2. Quite a tricky racecard at Sandown tomorrow but I have picked out one in the last race. 17:00 Sandown Much like most of the day this is a bit of a trappy handicap but one horse in particular has caught my eye and that is Macdillon. He was a model of consistency in 2012 despite not getting his head in front, unplaced on his first three starts of the year to then go on and not finish out the first three for the remainder of his seven races. He starts the season on an attractive mark of 73 (started off of 77 last year) which is 1lb lower than his last winning mark. Add to this the fact he has a decent enough record round here at Sandown with both of his career wins coming over course and distance and several other good efforts. He's ran off a mark as high as 92 at this track (albeit back in 2009). His latest run over course and distance was an eye catching one and it came on his penultimate start where he ran on well to take 2nd to Rocket Rob who lines up against him again today. My selection is 6lbs higher off than that rival today (dropped 1lb in handicap and claimer takes off 5lbs) and also has a better draw in stall 3 (stall 7 that day and Rocket Rob had the plum draw in stall 1, stall 11 today). Very capable claimer on boatd who takes off a handy 5lbs which could be vital to his chances in this race. Despite the horses consistency, he does tend to struggle to get his head in front so I will be playing each way in this race. 2pts E/W Macdillon @ SP (WillHill)