Drop The Dead Donkey

[jamespatrickashton]

There's a lot of old tosh spoken about favourites, you know the sort of thing I mean. "Follow favourites - they win around 1 race in three." "Don't follow favourites, 2 out of 3 lose!" "you can't make a profit following favourites." Let's try a little experiment. Picking favourites with the aim to make a profit, see if it can be done; short, medium and long term. I have a cunning plan to make this happen. It goes like this. All selections to be made in non-handicap races, but avoiding these race types: All Hunters races. Races for Juveniles. Races restricted to 2 Year Olds. (Yes, I know many punters will think this is crazy, maybe it is, I most definately am, I just find most 2 Year Old favourites either 'false', over bet or both). Conditional Jockey races. Races where the favodurite is odds on, as per the Racing Post card. All selections will be made from the first two horses in the betting forecast of the Racing Post. So might not always be on the actual favourite. Times like this bigger odds will be had and that's a good thing. Will not be selecting horses every day, got to be rock solid opportunities, in my eyes at least. Will not be considering horses making their debut. Only looking at a horse finished in the first 4 places in its last start. The 4th place does NOT need to have been in a handicap of 16 or more runners. Then I will be applying my 'Converging-Assessment Pointers' to the horse chosen to determine the probability of it actually winning the race. That's the selection process, I think it gives me an edge, tips the scales in my favour so to speak. Focuses the job on suitable races and real 'triers'. Time will tell if I am deleuded - as well as crazy. As for the betting of my selections, it is a one point win bet on all selections. I will aim to get at least 2/1 with one of my Bookie accounts or on Betfair where possible. For the purpose of this thread all bets will be at starting price. This will keep things simple, as you may not have the same Bookie accounts as me and not be able to get the same odds. Even with the appropriate account the odds I get may not be available when you are able to get your bet on. That is my "cunning plan" - well not that cunning, maybe not cunning at all. Perhaps it will be successful instead? That would be nice. Okay, we are under orders for our first selection. 23 April 13: Fos Llas 140 Westward Point (I got 2/1) BTW: The thread title, "Drop The Dead Donkey" has nothing whatsoever to do with the system, (I hope), just been watching a VHS of the excellent 90's comedy and thought I'd use the title. See, I am crazy.

[jamespatrickashton]

Re: Drop The Dead Donkey Picked wrong one of the two yesterday, dang and blast it! Maybe this should be a dutching system? 24 April 2013: For todays "Drop The Dead Donkey" I got 11/4 about Beeves in the 405 at Perth. Suppose the one I rejected, Utopie Des Bordes, will win :\