Flat Racing Friday 19th

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2.30 Newbury Cap O'Rushes 2.5pts win @ 9/4 Bet365 I think it's important when looking at Godolphin horses, that you treat the two trainers as completely different yards and judge each trainer on their own individual horses. Al Zarooni has started this season extremely well with 3 winners from 5 runners. It's no surprise as he does tend to excel in maiden races and this is where all of his runners have been running so far. Today he has an interesting runner in a conditions race at Newbury. The horse in question is Cap O'Rushes who won his first two starts last season before running reasonably well in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket behind Trading Leather. He looked as though the step up in trip would suit him that day and thats what he got next time out when finishing 2nd to his stablemate again at Newmarket. The ground was very soft that day and I don't he is suited to testing ground so I am giving him another chance today. He is very much favoured at the weights if running to his mark with only 1 other horse rated higher than him. I certainly think there could be more to come from him this year and this looks a good starting point. Middles distances should bring the best out of him this year and I am happy back him to get another win for one of my favourite trainers in Al Zarooni. He has a tremendous 30% strike rate at this track, which shows a very healthy levels stakes profit. He is sending just one horse to Newbury today so hopefully it will be a winning one. 6.30 Bath Jwala 3pts win @ 4/1 Bet365 This is not as competitive as the sprint at Newbury and I think the only horses worth concentrating on are those at the head of the market. The one I fancy very strongly in this race is the Robert Cowell trained Jwala. She improved with every run last year and finished the season with 3 wins followed by a 2^nd to Sole Power at Doncaster. That is obviously very good form and there is every chance she can improve again this year now a 4 year old. I don’t think the absence is a worry as she did win over CD last year on her seasonal return so I would expect her to be 100% fit for this. Robert Cowell has a 50% strike rate at this track from 8 runners and Shane Kelly is in cracking form at the moment with 5 winners from his last 14 runners. I can see Jwala banging out and making all in this. Her main market rivals in the betting are Caledonia Lady and Excelette. Caledonia Lady finished an unlucky 2^nd in this race last year but her trainer has a record here of 0 from 23. This horse does just take her time to get going and I feel Jwala have put the race to bed by the time she hits top gear. She is the main danger to my selection as she is a group 3 winner and is very consistent. Excellette is as short as 5/1 in the betting but she has never raced on ground with any cut in it. I think she would prefer it quicker so I am happy to swerve her. As for the others, the only one worth mentioning is My Propeller who on her day can look very good. She might just want it a little quicker as well and may need the run. Jwala certainly looks the most likely winner of this and she should prove tough to beat if carrying on from last year. 5.25 Newbury Kingsgate Choice 2pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 This is a very tricky little sprint to work out but I came down on the side of Kingsgate Choice in the end as I think the benefit of having a run might just make the difference. The only one in the field that I don’t think can win is the Richard Fahey trained El Viento and possibly Compton. Compton is a good horse but has never been over this trip so it will be interesting to see if Robert Cowell can convert him into a sprinter. Confessional finds it hard to win as his 1 win in his last 31 starts will tell you. His trainer isn’t in the best of form and he finished 6^th of 7 in this race last year. As for the remaining 5 runners, I found it quite difficult to pick one out. Definightly is another one that has struggled to win of late with just 1 win since 2010, which came in a group 3 at the Curragh last year. I just feel this one would prefer the ground more testing and I don’t think the yard have got going yet. He an go well fresh though so I wouldn’t completely rule him out. Heeraat improved nicely last season and finished the campaign with 2 wins at York. He is a horse that would prefer quick ground and he did appear to improve for the step up to 6f so he might just be vulnerable here. Taajub ran some excellent races in defeat last year and finished placed 3 times in hot handicap sprints despite creeping up the weights. I would have liked to see more encouragement on his seasonal debut at Lingfield but there is every chance he may have needed that run. I would probably put him up as the main danger to my selection. Mirza won this race last year and was in very good form in the first half of last season. His form really tailed off towards the end of the year and I would be against him until showing he can return to his earlier season form. That leaves me with my selection who himself improved as a sprinter towards the end of last season. He finished close up in competitive sprints a few times before getting a well deserved win at Ascot off 88. He then seemed unsuited by the step up to 6f when finishing down the field at Doncaster but won next time up off 93 in a good sprint at Catterick. He proved he has carried that form into this season when pushing Tangerine Trees all the way to the line on his reappearance at Musselburgh. Tangerine Trees is a group 1 horse and the pair of them pulled 6 lengths clear of the 3^rd horse, which is quite some way in a 5f sprint. Liam Keniry is back on board today, which is a positive as he has ridden him to 2 victories in the past. Kingsgate Choice is up 2lbs for his 2^nd last time out but if he turns up here in the same mood, then I can see him better tough to stop. The fact he has had a recent run might just pip this one in his direction. 3.05 Newbury No Jet Lag 1pt EW @ 14/1 William Hill No Jet Lag certainly had his quirks last season as he showed a few times on the track, especially when hanging under the whip at Doncaster. That was arguably his best performance despite him finishing 2^nd as the horse he beat was the talented Ashdan. Jamie Spencer couldn’t really give it everything on the horse that day but may have won had he ran in a straight line. The horse that beat him that day went on to run in the Dewhurst and certainly wasn’t disgraced in behind Dawn Approach. No Jet Lag had his final start of last season over at Dundalk in a listed contest but again ran very freely in the first half of the race and couldn’t pick up in the final furlong. He was sent off a strong 7/4 favourite for that race against some very decent Irish horse such as Cougar Ridge, Tennessee Wildcat and Lines of Battle. He was beaten a fair distance into 7^th but I am happy to forgive that run and give him another chance starting out this season. Since that run he has been gelded, which I would hope might just help him settle better in his races and could make him a much better horse. He is by Johar, who surprisingly has some very high progeny stats. I say surprisingly as I have never heard of this sire before. It would appear that his progeny go on pretty much on any ground from soft to good to firm but I think No Jet Lag would be suited by a sounder surface so any drying of the ground would be to his advantage. He did appear to handle soft ground last season on his first start when finishing a very good 7^th in a hot maiden won by Ghurair. There are several in the betting for this that are much shorter than my selection and I don’t really see why so at 14/1, I think he looks a cracking each way bet. He does have to carry joint top weight along with the favourite for the race but he should improve as a 3 year old and he will probably get further than 7f so he could be staying on well at the finish.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 19th 4.15 Newbury - 1pt win Petaluma @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Mick Channon's runner looks a bit overpriced here as she's got some rock solid form last year, has no issues with the conditions here and still has scope for progression at the age of 4. She stays two miles really well and I think the track will suit her down to the ground here as she's a galloping type who usually finishes off her races in nice fashion. Since up to trips around two miles on her final three starts of 2012 she was a close 3rd at Pontefract to Lieutenant Miller and although she's not quite as well off at the weights today, that was a pretty stiff task taking on the older horses when she was just 3. I'm hopeful that she'll have strengthened up further over the winter and this piece of form gives her a good chance here. Prior to that she chased home a nice type and finally got off the mark when last seen at Bath. She's versatile when it comes to ground and effectively is running off 1lb lower than that win with Charles Bishop's 5lb claim negating her 4lb penalty. All things considered, so long as she's fit enough on her return, she looks sure to run her race and therefore is well worth chancing at a double-figure price.