Jump Racing - Friday 19th

[Onefortheroad]

19/04/2013 AYR - Jump (Updated:19/04/2013 at 06:19:45) Going Soft, Heavy in Places (GoingStick: Hurdle 8.4 Chase 8.5 on Friday at 06:15) Dry for 24 hours Cool Bright gentle breeze this am Forecast Fri - Dry and Breezy with some sunshine +9C Sat - Dry with sunny intervals less windy +10C BATH - Flat (Updated:19/04/2013 at 07:09:57) Going Good to Soft, Good in places Dry overnight (18mm of rain in total Fri 12th to Weds 17th). (GoingStick: 7.3 on Friday at 06:30) Weather Forecast: Sunny spells with the slight chance of a shower, max temp 14C. FONTWELL PARK - Jump (Updated:19/04/2013 at 06:47:49) Going Good to Soft, Soft in places (GoingStick: 6.6 on Friday at 06:30) Weather Dry and sunny yesterday with a breeze. 1.5mm rain yesterday evening. Forecast: Sunny spells with the risk of a shower. NEWBURY - Flat (Updated:19/04/2013 at 08:20:18) Going Good to Soft (GoingStick: 5.8 on Thursday at 16:15) Weather Last 24hr 1mm of rain Forecast:Fri Sunshine and isolated showers temps max 13c Sat Sunny and dry 14c SOUTHWELL - Jump (Updated:19/04/2013 at 06:42:47) Going Good, (Watered) (GoingStick: 7.5 on Friday at 06:30) Weather Dry Thursday and no measurable rainfall overnight. Watering 4mm of water applied Thursday to the whole course

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing - Friday 19th 4.25 Ayr - 2pts win Karinga Dandy @ 12/1 (PP) Posted this last time out:

2.10 Carlisle - 2pts win Karinga Dandy @ 6/1 (PP) Sue Smith trains the front two in the market and despite there not being much between the two at the prices, I am surprised that this horse is not the outright favourite for the contest. It is true that he does look like he'll stay further and was doing good late work at Wetherby last time over 2m4f but this track is more of a test which can suit and his form does look particularly strong. I think he's very fairly treated and so long as he doesn't get too far back in this, I think he'll take a lot of beating for all this may not be his optimum trip. He won a point to point prior to going hurdling and his two runs have been very solid. He was 2nd over 2m1f at Sedgefield when beaten 1 3/4l by a decent type (11l back to the third) and it was a hot race he contested at Wetherby last time. The winner won again at Ascot next time (beating a good sort who won next time out) to get a rating of 142, the second won next time to be rated 136 and the third was 2nd in a handicap and then 2nd in a Grade 2 to be rated 135. My selection today runs off 114 with 3lbs taken off his back. This is obviously far easier (0-115 handicap) and this track can suit a bit more. He could also be made more use of to utilise his stamina and I just feel his mark is very exploitable. The yard are going perfectly well and I'd be surprised if this one wasn't bang there.

He disappointed me here but drifted before the race in the market and never really travelled with a great deal of fluency (without being awfully off the bridle) so I was concerned from early on. It does seem pretty obvious that he wants this step up to three miles (dam won over 3m1f) and the track should suit fairly well also. I'm willing to forgive him that effort based on the drift and the fact that his two previous pieces of form are strong. The ground was on the lively side there as well which probably contributed to the feeling that they were always going a little bit too quick for comfort so the easing surface also looks in his favour and Mr C Bewley is replaced by Ryan Mania this afternoon. There seems to be some market confidence behind him so far today and if that continues then he becomes even more interesting.