BBOTD Friday 12th

[cpo]

5.00 Chepstow Shammick Boy 1pt win @ 12/1 Ladbrokes Going to take a chance on the Victor Dartnall horse in this. You do have to forgive a below par effort in the Imperial Cup at Sandown as he was pulled up but there is every chance he can bounce back to form tomorrow. Plenty of horses found the ground just too testing at Sandown so I would be happy to put a line through that effort and concentrate on his 2 previous runs. He finished 2nd 3 runs ago to a well handicapped horse in Billy Twyford who followed up next time out in a higher class and off a 7lb higher mark. There was only a shoulder between them at the line when Bily Twyford pipped my selection right at the finish. Shammick Boy then followed that good run with a win at this track over 17f. That was a competitive little handicap and he got the better of Whitby Jack near the finish to win by just over 2 lengths. Looking at his pedigree I actually think he can improve over this distance of 20f as plenty of horses by Craigsteel get 3m. Another positive for this horse is the form of the yard. They have hit form in recent weeks with a few winners and this carried on today with another winner and other horses from the yard running well. Victor Dartnell has a good 19% strike rate at the track and Jack Doyle has an even better 20% strike rate here showing a very healthy level stakes profit. A return to better ground will also suit and he is only 4lbs higher than his highest winning mark of 125. I would expect him to leave his last run well behind and go close in this, with the stable now in fine form.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Friday 12th 6.25 Wolverhampton Some pretty poor racing today and this is the only one that remotely interests me and this isn’t particularly strong. Scribe won last time out after a string of respectable efforts, that was a career best effort and despite pulling well clear of a weak field a 6lb penalty requires a lot more in a slightly stronger race also drop in trip a concern. Redoute Star made British debut last week and ran an ok race without setting the world alight may just need some more time yet but one to perhaps keep an eye on. Laylas Boy’s strike rate speaks for itself 1 from 35 on the flat and that was off Southwell off 53, got a bit closer again last time out after a couple more disappointing efforts but up a further 1lb now running off 58 needs to step up. Honest Strike was another comfy winner last time out over further, a 6lb penalty may be enough looking at his previous form and is another that looked to relish the step up in trip so dropping back doesn’t look ideal. Petersboden is still a maiden but has been running better over these sorts of trips recently but the fact remains he clearly struggles to win and hard to back with confidence. I am gonna take a chance on Mr Plod not won since March 2010 off a mark of 56 (had a very light 2012 season just the 2 runs). Has returned from a lengthy layoff in good form on most 2 recent runs has gone back up the handicap by 2lb and now runs off 55 but they have elected to claim off him using the fast improving Robert Tart taking the ride today, that form has a few holes in it with The Blue Dog disappointing next time out (was excuses though) but the 4^th has since won off a 1lb lower mark. Wide draw not ideal but this is a weak race with plenty of holes. 1pt win Mr Plod 6/1 bet365